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Thread: Yankees, lucky 15,31,63,Heinz, Goliath's etc

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    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Yankees, lucky 15,31,63,Heinz, Goliath's etc

    Reassessing betting strategies and for this topic I have largely ignored all the titled bets over the course of my gambling life.

    Where is slim when you need him

    What are all your strategies on these types of bets - do you do them AP or day of racing?

    What level of stakes and do you see a long term return of any sort

    I like the idea of landing a big festival multi hotpot as an aside for anyone who thinks they have a multi selection of note
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Nice thread Granger.

    For years after I started gambling I always used to do Yankees and Canadians pretty much as my sole betting strategies, aside from big festivals but in those days I never used to keep record of my bets.

    About 12 years ago I started recording everything and probably more through coincidence than judgement also started eradicating the multiples from my betting plans, instead focusing on singles and beating SP.

    I've made a fair profit every year since 2014 (inclusive) and I sometimes wonder whether that's the removal of multiples or other factors at play - although probably a combination in all likelihood.

    But I too now find myself drawn to the idea of playing a few ante post e/w multis, largely drawn in by the enthusiasm shown by many on here that I've decent respect for.

    To that end I've been scouring the Cheltenham ante post lists in the hope of coming up with one or two myself but other than thinking Suapasundae at 6/1 NRNB for the Stayers should be the cornerstone of any e/w multi I'm struggling to come up with anything more, despite having inclination towards horses like Rocky's Treasure for the NH Chase (entered up for Warwick this weekend), Champagne Platinum in the Supreme and even Espoir D'allen for the Champion (Pricewised today )
    Last edited by wilsonl; 8th January 2019 at 11:20 AM.
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    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    Definitely stick to NRNB for Supasundae in the Stayersl

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    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tout Seul View Post
    Definitely stick to NRNB for Supasundae in the Stayersl
    He was last years bank job and the conditions killed me on the day - it still hurts a little

    I think they will persist with 2 miles with him, until feb at least
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    My experience is similar to wilsonl's.

    I tended to go with 'three-crosses' and yankees or the occasional union jack in my early days but soon realised if I'd stuck to singles I'd be in profit so for many many years religiously avoided multiples.

    Profits grew modestly over the years till it got to the point I realised my small-stake bets were only just covering outgoings (form books, Handicap Book, RP etc, which were continually increasing) annually. I upscaled significantly and that's when I noticed how much I was really making - lots!

    I upscaled again a few years back but the last couple of years have been loss-making so I've scaled back quite a bit recently (only for fortunes to turn - typically - but I'm too cautious to think the corner has been turned properly).

    We've had debates on here and I've been drawn to multiples in the last few years.

    The logic, as I see it, is the compounded value of them.

    For example, if on the same day I reckon two 10/1 shots should really be no more than 5/1 each then that's clearly value. If they should both be 5/1 then the double should be 35/1. But if they're both 10/1 then the odds you're getting are 120/1. Obviously it's still 1/35 that you're going to lose but there's still value in the bet at the longer odds.

    While singles tend to (or used to!) keep my head above water, it was the doubles that tended to boost the balance significantly.

    If I bet five singles at an average of 5/1 on a Saturday at an outlay of five points, one winner will probably cover me while two will ensure a profit. But the double will boost that profit. I wouldn't bet full perms on five. I might bet win doubles and an ew acc. If the prices are big enough (10s or more) I'll maybe back the doubles ew.

    I do plan to explore the NRNB+BOG concessions ante-post for Cheltenham this year for possible value snaffles.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 8th January 2019 at 12:16 PM.
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    Using a £1 stake here to illustrate my point

    I can see that a multiple can be the bet if you're hoping for that big one, aren't we all? It's a "slim chance" that you'll pick up anything but yet for the cost of a lottery ticket you could pick up - say- around 15,000/1 for an E/w accy if all four won @ 10's (or 200,000/1 @ 20's )

    Given the fabulous return my question would be - why bother with an e/w yankee increasing your stake 10 fold for only a 20% increase in the return? If you fancy 4 (or whatever number) strongly then back them individually but with the accy as insurance "just in case".

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    I do lucky 63s on a Saturday card when I'm off for interest, only 50p though (£31) more in hope that one day I'll go near enough through a card. Also depends on the prices of what I'm backing, any long shots I'll reduce the stake to sometimes 10p e/w.

    Through Cheltenham last year, despite making profit, I lost a lot on multiples with one leg being the constant nack of letting me down. Might Bite emptying up the hill hurts me still now. As does Apple's Jades no show. Probably why my AP portfolio is near enough empty this year.

    I've stuck to singles really this season and find myself slightly better off. Also spending more time studying form etc. Though Kalondra will probably always be the most I've lost on a single bet. I'll probably stick to singles for the next few years. I'd love to spend more time looking into races, unfortunately with my job and my hours, I have to pick and choose races.

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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    The odds of you getting one yankee up that will bring in a pot of gold are way too high for me.

    I’ve had a couple up as far as I remember but for peanuts and at short odds.

    Did get the William Hill Jackpot 6 with bonuses up in Dawn Run’s year but nothing like that since.

    Had 3 out of 4 ante post at Chelters twice both times beat by the second leg…..it’s the toughest way ever to try and make money…..if it’s fun and anxiety wrapped into one you want….you got it

    Apart from those who dig out the Sprinter Sacres’or Altiors’ and grab AP prices with huge best before anyone else cottons on I reckon the most successful everyday punters are those who use logical insurance over greed rather than throw sh*te at a wall and hope some sticks.

    Three methods

    Bet one 3 cross doubles and a treble per week.
    Unless you are the worst punter on the planet you must have a great chance to win.

    100 pounds stake per week say 50 weeks betting = 5000 pounds per year

    Your average price must be 7/2 and one winning treble should just about pay for the entire year

    Get 3 up your 10k plus up for the year
    if 1 in 6 return a winning double you can add 3k to other winnings.

    The much safer alternative is:
    Spread 90 pounds at prices no less than 2/1 5/2 3/1 or an averge of 5/2
    Add aq 10 pounds treble.
    1 winner you will win about 3 quid 2 winners you more than double your money
    All 3 win pay a minimum of 750 pounds.

    The only time I go to a 4 horse bet which is as crazy as I am prepared to get,,,,,,,,,,,most of the time is like the best I put up in what are you betting today 2 days ago.

    For what it’s worth I did another successful one yesterday that paid only evens

    You need consistency and must stick to your guns to make it pay.

    Battleoverdoyen 2.88
    Tornado Flyer 2.88
    X
    Arvico Bleu 3.25
    Punches Cross 3.25
    X
    Miss Tata 2.75
    Meri Devie 5
    X
    Mister Dino 2.38
    Knocknanuss 3

    The idea is to look for races like the first bet 2.88 2.88 12/1 bar
    Some days there are 2 or 3 some days more

    100 pounds on the first leg returns 144.00

    144.00 at 3.25 and 3.25 returns 234.00

    You can then dutch the nest 2 with the full 234 or stick the profit on or half the profit on.

    With careful picking the odds are in your favour IMO

    Good luck throwing sh*ite at the wall hope some sticks for you
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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Sorry I should have said ...That last bet you are dutching 2 or even 3 depending on prices in each race
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    On 12/9/81 I had the first 6 up in an ew ITV7. My last horse was called Shergar (some may remember the name!) to win the St Leger. It was unplaced. I`m still traumatised!!

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    Generally stick to singles myself and have made a reasonable profit in 11 of the last 12 years. Occasionally get tempted by multiples (mostly each way doubles and trixies) but often find myself being let down by one. I find it quite hard to stomach nil reward when selecting a winner or even two


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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desperate Dan View Post
    On 12/9/81 I had the first 6 up in an ew ITV7. My last horse was called Shergar (some may remember the name!) to win the St Leger. It was unplaced. I`m still traumatised!!
    Ouch!

    An old auntie of mine used to get decent money back regularly on the ITV7. She watched all the racing on TV but never read form as such. She just remembered seeing some horse run well some day or some jockey she liked or the horse a wee (f) in the Daily Express card. Back then it seemed like she was getting ten or fifteen quid back every other week (I used to put her lines on for her and collect her winnings). She'd always blow it at the bingo, mind
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    I find it quite hard to stomach nil reward when selecting a winner or even two
    Yes, but almost as galling when you find two decent winners on the one day and don't have them in a double!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Yes, but almost as galling when you find two decent winners on the one day and don't have them in a double!
    No that one’s easier to stomach as there’s some reward (obviously could have bee so much more)


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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Nice thread Granger.

    For years after I started gambling I always used to do Yankees and Canadians pretty much as my sole betting strategies, aside from big festivals but in those days I never used to keep record of my bets.

    About 12 years ago I started recording everything and probably more through coincidence than judgement also started eradicating the multiples from my betting plans, instead focusing on singles and beating SP.

    I've made a fair profit every year since 2014 (inclusive) and I sometimes wonder whether that's the removal of multiples or other factors at play - although probably a combination in all likelihood.

    But I too now find myself drawn to the idea of playing a few ante post e/w multis, largely drawn in by the enthusiasm shown by many on here that I've decent respect for.

    To that end I've been scouring the Cheltenham ante post lists in the hope of coming up with one or two myself but other than thinking Suapasundae at 6/1 NRNB for the Stayers should be the cornerstone of any e/w multi I'm struggling to come up with anything more, despite having inclination towards horses like Rocky's Treasure for the NH Chase (entered up for Warwick this weekend), Champagne Platinum in the Supreme and even Espoir D'allen for the Champion (Pricewised today )
    I am struggling for angles for The Festival ATM, but then I haven't done my research yet, and have been waiting for the horses to stand out to me or catch my eye. Having said that, I am happy with my anti post selections in the competition...e.g. Apple's Jade at 7/2, Lalor at 10/1 and Shantou Flyer at about 8/1 who should shorten after tomorrow. But I haven't seen anything at bigger than 10/1 so far this season that is striking me as a stonking anti post bet, etc.

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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desperate Dan View Post
    On 12/9/81 I had the first 6 up in an ew ITV7. My last horse was called Shergar (some may remember the name!) to win the St Leger. It was unplaced. I`m still traumatised!!
    Fvck me!!
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    No that one’s easier to stomach as there’s some reward (obviously could have bee so much more)
    Yes, the word 'is' between 'galling' and 'when' is missing.
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    Multiples are great for Cheltenham but madness without nrnb.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Does this mean no one is capable of picking 2 winners in a day.i thought it was just me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Does this mean no one is capable of picking 2 winners in a day.i thought it was just me.
    You might notice that I gave an example earlier using four 20/1 winners. That's for the day when you give us those four winners

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