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  1. #21
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    My Tent or Yours too.

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  3. #22
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    The thing is, those horses and Recession Proof who having won the Betfair finished 5th behind 4 top, top class horses in undoubtedly the best Supreme of all time, and even Ballyandy are from a relatively small number of novices to run at Newbury.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  4. #23
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    I agree. Forget the stat for winners. So many have gone close and it's an irrefutable fact that they have a great record in the Supreme.

  5. #24
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    Again handicap experience against a field of novices will always stand to a horse; they think quicker, jump quicker and are not put off by a crowd.

  6. #25
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Whilst there’s a case to be made for saying the race brings novices on, there’s probably also a case to be made for saying it might also knock the edge of them a little bit.......or at least, that it’s perhaps harder to recover from, than other potential prep races.

    FWIW, I reckon it looks inconclusive either way, and it’s probably wise to consider both factors, when weighing-up the Supreme. I’m not convinced there’s evidence to suggest it’s more significant a trial than, say the Tolworth. For a start, there’s been too many Irish winners of the race, that never went anywhere near Newbury.

    IMO, whilst it looks like a potentially informative stat, it would be wrong to assume that it’s key to unlocking the Supreme.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 11th January 2019 at 9:23 PM.
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  7. #26
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    I've added another a/p bet to my portfolio this evening.

    I've just checked the sectionals of the two good chases at Kempton on Saturday, Top Notch's race and Glen Rocco's race, the latter race being run over about half a mile further.

    I timed both races from the same point, the first fence in the shorter race, and I find it the results very interesting. I'm still a novince at this sectional stuff but I can't help thinking this may be significant.

    Overall, naturally, Top Notch's race was faster. That was to be expected with Speredek taking them so far then Charbel pressing on. But from the first fence away from the stands on the final circuit to the line Glen Rocco has run two seconds faster (ten lengths?) despite easing down a few lengths close home. So while Top Notch and co were going hard at it in a good race, Glen Rocco was going faster.

    OK, he was carrying 18lbs less than Top Notch but he won't be taking on Top Notch at levels any time soon. He'll be running in handicaps and I reckon even off 13lbs higher he's potentially handicapped to win a festival handicap. The only one for which I can find NRNB/BOG on offer is the Ultima, for which I've taken 16/1. There has to be a chance he'll improve a bit again by then so I'd prefer not to see him run again and I suppose there's a chance he's better going right-handed. But if he gets there I'll be surprised if he's a double-digit price and if he doesn't I haven't lost anything.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th January 2019 at 10:21 PM.
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  9. #27
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    DO
    Overall, naturally, Top Notch's race was faster. That was to be expected with Speredek taking them so far then Charbel pressing on. But from the first fence away from the stands on the final circuit to the line Glen Rocco has run two seconds faster (ten lengths?) despite easing down a few lengths close home. So while Top Notch and co were going hard at it in a good race, Glen Rocco was going faster.


    Maybe I'm missing something here, but wouldn't GR naturally be finishing quicker against what appears a much less exacting pace than was the case in TN's race?

  10. #28
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    This is why I call myself a novice. I don't really know enough yet.

    What I can say is that when I've compared longer hurdles races with shorter ones, the longer races are almost invariably quite a bit slower over the last mile.

    I reckon with stayers it's a matter of which is slowing down the least.

    The ones behind Glen Rocco were running to expectations in that they slowed dramatically but even easing down GR was a second quicker from the last to the line than Top Notch.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th January 2019 at 11:29 PM.
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  11. #29
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    The race fell apart once Josses Hill came down and badly hampered Barney Dwan

  12. #30
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    Tbh DO, though I believe pace is important in judging the result of most races, I'm wary of trusting sectionals for NHracing, and have been ever since Nick Mordin (way back) drew some lurid conclusions from timing just part of such races.
    Two personal rules of thumb which you might (or may not) find useful, both common sense really:
    The shorter the race, the more likely the pace is a true reflection - both disciplines.
    Pace will always affect stamina.

  13. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Tbh DO, though I believe pace is important in judging the result of most races, I'm wary of trusting sectionals for NHracing, and have been ever since Nick Mordin (way back) drew some lurid conclusions from timing just part of such races.
    I don't entirely trust times or sectionals for NH racing either, reet, but I do like to dabble/experiment in comparisons and every now and again I find they throw up important stuff perhaps not obvious to the majority of punters. Some of my most satisfying wins have been when farting against thunder


    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Two personal rules of thumb which you might (or may not) find useful, both common sense really:
    The shorter the race, the more likely the pace is a true reflection - both disciplines.
    Pace will always affect stamina.
    I pretty much already work to both rules.

    As a bit of an aside to the second one - which might seem contradictory to my post about Glen Rocco - I thought it was interesting that Black Corton, urged along for more than half the race the other day, was still only a few lengths down at the line. My interpretation is that they had gone so fast they were slowing down allowing his 3m stamina to keep him going up the straight. On the other hand, they were clearly going a very fast pace even for a 2-mile race yet for almost the entire final lap Glen Rocco was going faster than Top Notch, not just in the closing couple of furlongs. That's what I think might be significant.

    I'll be looking again at the beaten horses for reliable collateral lines from which to assess the winner but my feeling right now is that 13lbs might be a lenient rise for Glen Rocco. I think he's probably some way better than a handicapper.
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  14. #32
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    Not at all sure they were going "a very fast pace" DO; T/S figures for the day show the time as distinctly ordinary, on ground that appeared borderline g/f anyway.Add (as Euro highlighted) that most of the market opposition was out well before the finish, and he's beaten a modest 11yo who showed no sign of improvement, and GR falls well short of your lofty aspiration,imo. Has the scope to progress, but has yet to feature in a race run at a higher level pace, so he'll need to.
    Black Corton, conversely,a horse, though the same age and whom I'd regarded as a 'bit of a boat' previously, did show improvement, imo (albeit on ground in his favour), and promises to win something decent before he's much older.
    Last edited by reet hard; 17th January 2019 at 5:39 PM.

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  16. #33
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    I've now also checked the handicap won by Mercian Prince over the sane C&D as Top Notch on the day. For some reason I thought there were only two chases on the card.

    Anyway, tonight is the first I've seen MP's race and he was also very impressive. It wasn't a big field but he led and jumped his opponents silly - I'd love to see him in the Topham - and it's easy to argue that race fell apart too. But did it?

    From Fence 1 to 6 MP was, despite seemingly setting off at a decent pace and jumping really well, five seconds slower than Top Notch's race. MP then made up a bit of ground to the next but lost it again and more over the next section before pulling it back a bit. By Fence 11 MP was still four seconds off the leader in TN's race. That's probably to be expected given that it was a lesser race and MP was carrying 4lbs more than TN. Glen Rocco, to the same point, was two seconds behind MP having already covered half a mile further.

    From there to the line, Top Notch's race took 97s, Mercian Prince took 96s (easing down) and Glen Rocco took 96s (easing down). Once again, Glen Rocco was going at the same speed as the two shorter races. That's why I think Top Notch's race was fast-run. (I have a time rating of 161 for it.) Now MP was admittedly eased further from the line than GR but I'm not sure he had too much more to offer. I thought he was being ridden as though starting to tire going to the last. I thought GR was just starting to motor at that stage.

    As I said before, I think GR put up a very smart final lap for a stayer compared with essentially faster horses. I think he may be on a very steep curve and that, as much as the bare time for that lap, is what has me excited about his prospects.

    I accept there's every chance I'm getting this wrong but I'm more than happy to back up my feelings with cash when GR runs in a suitable race, which I hope is the Ultima next time out. I do wonder, though, if a return here for the RP Chase - whatever it's now called - over course and distance is the aim.

    PS - I agree about Black Corton. He's still on the up, I think.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 17th January 2019 at 8:24 PM.
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  18. #34
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    Another added today:

    Frodon NRNB/BOG in the Shitebagair (12/1) and the Gold Cup (33/1 ew).

    I think the first race is his for the taking if he goes there and he'll win the Gold Cup if he stays. Apparently he might take in the Cotswolds Chase to see if he stays. If he runs very well (let alone wins) he'll shorten and if he doesn't stay he probably won't run. I can live with either scenario.
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  19. #35
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Arkle - Defi 25s
    Arkle - Lalor 7s
    CH - Melon 10s
    NHC - Ballyward 33s
    RSA - Santini 12s
    QM - Min 25s
    Ryan - Monalee 16s
    Ryan - Shattered Love 16s
    GC - R2R 18s
    Any - Paloma Blue 15s

    Multis
    Kew Gardens (Leg) Roaring Lion (ICS) Footpad (QM) 4s Treb
    Footpad (Ryan), Percy (GC) 5s&9/2 NRNB
    Footpad (QM), Percy (GC) 7s&4s NRNB
    Kalashnikov (JLT 5s), Top Notch (Ryan 12s), Paisley Park (SH 10s), Percy (GC 4s) L15 NRNB
    Lalor (Ark 11/2), Topofthegame (RSA 8s), R2R (GC 12s) Trix NRNB

    Added since:
    JLT - Master Dino 16s
    SH - Black Op 16s ew NRNB
    GC - Clan Des Obeaux 9s ew NRNB
    Foxhunters - Caid Du Berlais 20s ew
    Any - Battleoverdoyen 22s

    Multi:
    Tiger Roll (xc 9/4), Delta Work (rsa 4s), Monalee (Ry 7s) Trixie NRNB

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