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Thread: Crossroads approaching.

  1. #21
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2017diary View Post
    however if you'd played, say, golf all your adult life your enjoyment would be the justification for a considerable outlay every year. The point being do you have to make it pay to get your enjoyment from racing?
    This is a discussion I have occasionally with Mrs O. She'll comment now and again about how much time I spend with my nose in the form and/or watching recordings. My polite reply is to ask her how much her Rock Choir, art, meeting Orchidettte / pals for coffee etc costs her in terms of time and money and that at least my hobby doesn't cost me money. Golf has been mentioned since I planned to take it up once I retired but a back problem in the last year has hindered that. I play the brothers at snooker once a month, which amounts to a full day out as we 'do' lunch as well and that can cost money but the full day out might cost a piddling £15. That's nothing compared with what football supporters put out following their team, especially a successful team. And golf, if taken seriously, can also cost a packet. And it's all money they'll never get back.

    I've always taken the view that my hobby makes me money rather than costs me money and I don't really want that to change!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Getting better than the true odds is always key to making money at betting but not if your horses aint winning at all!
    Seems you've identified your problem in that one short para. DO.
    Maybe you could skip obssessing about prices for a while, and concentrate your energies more on the latter?
    Won't sit well with many on here, but I do speak from personal experience.
    GL for the future, whatever you decide.

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  4. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Yes. I've already been modifying my stakes for a wee while and/or backing each-way when I'd normally reserve that for proper longshots.

    The decision isn't really based on short term results though. I've been conscious of sliding profits for at least two full years (amounting to several thousand pounds).

    A bit of me wonders if it's the increasing importance of the festivals and mega-handicaps. The form really works there and I tend to do very well in the handicaps at the festivals. The only logical reason I can come up with is that in some of the good Saturday handicaps too many well-handicapped horses are keeping their powder on the dry side for an even bigger target and it's the ones genuinely targeting the Saturday races that are doing the business. I'll have these ones on my short/long-lists for the races but not alighting on them for betting purposes.
    Appears you understand why the process may be failing at certain points which is half the battle surely. You just need to make the adjustments and you’ll be in business.

  5. #24
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Like most things in life, take a break, relax and recharge yourself.

    Get a new hobby, let's say gardening and get a balance in your life between new things, life with Mrs O and make time for things that make you happy e.g. Cars and holidays.

    Racing isn't going to disappear and come back to it fresh if it peaks your interest.

    I hope not just for you but for all on here that they can enjoy racing and the beauty of horses without the need to monetise things to determine an interest in the sport.

    Good luck in whatever you do next Mo and thanks for everything that I have learned from you on here.
    Last edited by granger; 15th December 2018 at 3:39 PM.
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Whats Rock choir?

  7. #26
    SlimChance
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    If my balance was dipping below ten figures for the first time I'd be quiet content to keep going.

  8. #27
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    If my balance was dipping below ten figures for the first time I'd be quiet content to keep going.
    Did I say ten figures? If so that was a typo. I meant ten thou (five figures).

    It took me a long time to get it there and that was the 'margin' I'd decided once it got back down there there was the point at which I'd start to get worried. I've always been determined to walk away having something decent to show for all my efforts.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  9. #28
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Did I say ten figures? If so that was a typo. I meant ten thou (five figures).

    It took me a long time to get it there and that was the 'margin' I'd decided once it got back down there there was the point at which I'd start to get worried. I've always been determined to walk away having something decent to show for all my efforts.
    If you can spin up to 5 figures then there is no reason you can't win next year or any year. The game just evolves and you must too. I've said to you a few times I think don't think you maximize your edge, for example e/w multiples on Saturdays and festivals are missing from your strategy. I also think you side with bigger prices when you sometimes don't need to. If you are going to bet a big price horse in one of these big big handicaps it's a lot more powerful in an e/w lucky 15 than it is having a token 1/4 unit e/w. The days those horses click you need to having a multiple running for the lot!

    If I were you I would look to start next year with a fresh outlook and not be so stuck with what worked for you years ago. Put aside 1k for multiples on Saturdays. Play a number of £1,£2 or £3 e/w luckys depending on how strong you card is and how lucrative the place terms are. You'll be amazed with how much this will add to your enjoyment and profit margin. It will also make you more enthusiastic to do a whole card because you'll need more marginal bets for the multiples.

    If you want to drop me a mail any Saturday morning with you selections I'll let you know how I would play them based on the terms on offer with whatever bookmaker you have available. It doesn't have to be e/w either. If you have four horses at the front of market a win lucky 15 or yankee still compounds your edge. Whatever you do, don't quit!

    P.S Death to you and all belong to you for making me write a ******* essay...

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  11. #29
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Yes. I've already been modifying my stakes for a wee while and/or backing each-way when I'd normally reserve that for proper longshots.

    The decision isn't really based on short term results though. I've been conscious of sliding profits for at least two full years (amounting to several thousand pounds).

    A bit of me wonders if it's the increasing importance of the festivals and mega-handicaps. The form really works there and I tend to do very well in the handicaps at the festivals. The only logical reason I can come up with is that in some of the good Saturday handicaps too many well-handicapped horses are keeping their powder on the dry side for an even bigger target and it's the ones genuinely targeting the Saturday races that are doing the business. I'll have these ones on my short/long-lists for the races but not alighting on them for betting purposes.
    There is no doubt this is happening. That's why the festivals are so important to serious punters. The old adage that a 4/1 winner at Hexam is as good as one at Royal Ascot is no longer the case. Most of us have no idea what price something should be at Hexam but at Ascot the form is there for all to see and the markets move just as much as they do on the fodder racing. Between myself and my partner (50/50 of the action) we won about 6k on the Tuesday on multiples. We correctly put the lot in play the following day. Where else were we going to get the opportunity to get that much on in multiples at best price, guaranteed odds and extra places? You have to up your risk appetite at the big meetings or you are missing out.

  12. #30
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Dear D O, I would say have a break. Don't walk away for ever or make that decision yet. I fell out of love with going racing for a while for reasons won't bore anyone with, but really missed seeing those beautiful animals in the flesh, although had one at home who I loved with all my heart. The break was a good thing, so I would say have a break. I always read your posts with interest even if I don't understand half of them - that's me being thick and having a lack of knowledge - no reflection on your posts but would miss you if you weren't here, and your educational input

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  14. #31
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Great post from Slim even if it was over the 6 line concentration read.

    It shows the beauty of a forum over social media. Long live the forum.

    Evolve or die is as applicable to punting as any other aspect of life.

    Plus I see you and DO now as an equine Mr Miyagi and Daniel son.
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  15. #32
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    P.S Death to you and all belong to you for making me write a ******* essay...


    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    If you can spin up to 5 figures then there is no reason you can't win next year or any year. The game just evolves and you must too. I've said to you a few times I think don't think you maximize your edge, for example e/w multiples on Saturdays and festivals are missing from your strategy. I also think you side with bigger prices when you sometimes don't need to. If you are going to bet a big price horse in one of these big big handicaps it's a lot more powerful in an e/w lucky 15 than it is having a token 1/4 unit e/w. The days those horses click you need to having a multiple running for the lot!

    If I were you I would look to start next year with a fresh outlook and not be so stuck with what worked for you years ago. Put aside 1k for multiples on Saturdays. Play a number of £1,£2 or £3 e/w luckys depending on how strong you card is and how lucrative the place terms are. You'll be amazed with how much this will add to your enjoyment and profit margin. It will also make you more enthusiastic to do a whole card because you'll need more marginal bets for the multiples.

    If you want to drop me a mail any Saturday morning with you selections I'll let you know how I would play them based on the terms on offer with whatever bookmaker you have available. It doesn't have to be e/w either. If you have four horses at the front of market a win lucky 15 or yankee still compounds your edge. Whatever you do, don't quit!
    Yes, as you know, I'm aware of the compound value of my bets but as I said earlier if I'm just not alighting on winners (or places for ews) I'm just throwing money away.

    I might take you up on your offer re how to play the multiples as it isn't something I tend to consider other than maybe ew accs to can a mill if my luck turns. But there will still be that nagging doubt about whether I'm picking the right ones. It's bad enough when my singles don't win.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. #33
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by G-G View Post
    Dear D O, I would say have a break. Don't walk away for ever or make that decision yet. I fell out of love with going racing for a while for reasons won't bore anyone with, but really missed seeing those beautiful animals in the flesh, although had one at home who I loved with all my heart. The break was a good thing, so I would say have a break. I always read your posts with interest even if I don't understand half of them - that's me being thick and having a lack of knowledge - no reflection on your posts but would miss you if you weren't here, and your educational input
    G-G, I mean to cause no offence when I say there's a lot of femininity in that post. I thought you were a bloke?!

    Regardless, it's a lovely message and struck a chord, especially since I haven't yet got over losing my wee pooch four years ago come January. As I said earlier, I've no intention of leaving the forum or contributing to debate. It's just punting I'm thinking of giving up.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  17. #34
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    Plus I see you and DO now as an equine Mr Miyagi and Daniel son.
    Whoooooshhh... straight over my head
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  18. #35
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post




    Yes, as you know, I'm aware of the compound value of my bets but as I said earlier if I'm just not alighting on winners (or places for ews) I'm just throwing money away.

    I might take you up on your offer re how to play the multiples as it isn't something I tend to consider other than maybe ew accs to can a mill if my luck turns. But there will still be that nagging doubt about whether I'm picking the right ones. It's bad enough when my singles don't win.
    What's stopping you playing multiple horses in permed multiples?

  19. #36
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Slim is right, it's all about the multiples these especially at the Festivals.

    In 2015 I backed Blaklion in a novice chase at Cheltenham. He fell towards the end of the race and I forgot about the race eventually. Then I read a post you wrote a few months later trumpeting the winner of the race that day, Vicente, as a good bet for the 4 miler. So I went back and watched it again and got where you were coming from. He didn't win at the Festival but he was now on my tracker and found his way onto a very nice Scottish Nash/Champion Hurdle double with Ch'tbello
    a few weeks later. So a belated thank you for that post DO and good luck with whatever future endeavours you undertake

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  21. #37
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    What's stopping you playing multiple horses in permed multiples?
    My head.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. #38
    SlimChance
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    If you were doing perms today there is now way you would have left out Frodon. He had the most solid look based on your ratings.

  23. #39
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    My brother was on the phone straight after the race. He thought I'd backed it even though it wasn't on my list of bets. He reminded me I'd said earlier this season I felt it was being trained for this race. I think it was its big run against Baron Alco that put me off. That represented further improvement and saw a further rise up the weights so I thought he was exposed. I now think, as I said in the race thread, that it was a brilliant bit of training by Nicholls. He's probably known all along he had a Ryanair winner that he could afford to hide in plain sight in these handicaps. The chances are Frodon was only half fit last time after all.

    Yes, he was on the radar but so were so many others - and therein lies my problem.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 15th December 2018 at 9:34 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  24. #40
    SlimChance
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    An example. On Friday I played these horses in permed e/w lucky 15s.

    Chelt

    Jarveys Plate (Banker)
    Magic Dancer (Banker)
    Theatre Territory/Singlefarmpayment
    Lygon Rock/Aaron Lad

    Now the first two were turned over but Jerveys Plate at least placed after being bet into joint fav. SFM got beat a head which cost me a nice few quid and that's with both bankers losing on the day. The day the bankers win you give your self 4 combinations through the trickier races. What do I or you care what wins these races once we have them covered? Stop obsessing with nailing the winner, it's not the way to make money on these cards.

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