I posted this stuff at the time (last Feb) but have no idea where it would be so I'm copying it from my files:
The big race was compelling yet very unsatisfactory. They looked to go far too fast early on – Speredek, who led the field by a long way over shorter at Sandown, couldn’t get near the lead until after about a mile by which time Frost appeared to realise she’d gone too fast on Frodon and got a breather into him – so Cue Card deserves loads of credit for staying up there most of the way and getting to the front until collared late by Waiting Patiently. You can imagine how annoying it is for me to think I was on him ante-post at 25/1 for the Mackeson off just 150.
I did some of my neanderthal sectional times on the races and came up with the following:
Here are the results of a quick time comparison exercise with the two earlier chases over 3m, the Reynoldstown won by Black Corton and the £100k handicap won by Regal Encore:
For the two earlier races I timed them from jumping the first fence of the race to the last in the home straight. The camera angle switched preventing me from taking a time at the winning post on the first circuit.
Black Corton - 164sec
Tenor Nivernais - 157sec
I can't do decimal points on-screen so there is a margin of error but 7 seconds is at least 26 lengths. So Tenor Nivernais was all of that in front of Black Corton at that point. The chances are he was going too fast and BC was getting a soft lead.
From the last fence on the first circuit to the winning post:
Black Corton - 208sec
Regal Encore* - 209sec
Black Corton pulled back nearly four lengths overall through that stage but Regal Encore beat him by six seconds overall.
Comparing these two races with the big race, timing it from the first fence in the shorter race to the last in the home straight:
Black Corton - 117 sec
Tenor Nivernais - 113 sec
Leader in Betfair - 108 sec
Those are very big margins.
From the last fence on the first circuit to the winning post:
Black Corton - 208sec
Regal Encore* - 209sec
Leader in Ascot Chase - 208sec
So Black Corton, despite running in a 3f longer race has completed the final circuit in the same time as the leader at the various stages of the Ascot Chase. He was basically keeping pace with Cue Card and then with Waiting Patiently, but of course WP was running slightly faster as he was coming from behind.
From six out to the line:
Black Corton - 86 sec
Regal Encore* - 89 sec
Cue Card - 89.5s
Waiting Patiently - 88 sec
(* this is the time taken for the leader at these stages. Black Corton was in front, RE & WP came from a little further back.)
Clearly Cue Card was slowing from six out, more so from two out.
It looks like the times are confirming what the naked eye saw, namely that Frost got a breather into BC from 8 out to 6 out and really got the horse running from three out, covering that last section in 54s. Regal Encore took a little under 55s and Waiting Patiently took 57s, so Waiting Patiently was slowing down more than the winners of the other two races both run over 3f further.
The pace was clearly over-fast in WP's race and he has benefited from a hold-up ride.
I wrote most of the foregoing on Saturday and Sunday. On Wednesday I had a closer look at the times and they tell a slightly different story. Rating the times via Black Corton doesn’t work as it makes the others too fast. Rating them via Regal Encore (or Tenor Nivernais’s pace, to be more accurate) does work out. It makes BC slow overall, but that looks right given the way the race panned out. Frost just got to set an even slower pace than I’d thought. It puts Waiting Patiently on 172 and Cue Card on 170. Waiting Patiently, who the jockey claims was idling, will get a ‘+p’ and Cue Card a ‘++’ for setting the over-fast pace. Frodon has run below form after chasing the early pace. Top Notch was never convincing through the race with his jumping but I’m sure Hendo will have him spot on for Cheltenham.
Simon Rowlands has analysed the race on his Sectional Spotlight at the ATR site:
http://cheltenham.attheraces.com/sec...-ryanair-chase
(I'm not sure that link will still work - I haven't checked it)
If my figures are correct Waiting Patiently is clearly top class but his stamina remains a question. He was clearly finishing more slowly than the others despite racing over shorter so was he just being less affected by the pace for having been held up or was he indeed idling?
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Euronymous
