Page 2 of 6 FirstFirst 123456 LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 116

Thread: The 32Red Winter Festival Kempton Park Wed 26 Dec & Thurs 27 Dec 2018

  1. #21
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    Good write up Danny.

    Regarding Politologue's class - or possible lack of it - there are only three horses in the race with a higher OR (presuming Altior swerves it as expected) and of those: -

    - How likely is Native River to prove his Kauto Star run wasn't a dislike of the sharp, right handed track?. Admittedly that was 3 years ago but I just don't see him acting around Kempton as well as an Aintree or Newbury...

    - Might Bite looked seriously good in his Kauto Star before falling and proved in the RSA and Gold Cup just how talented he is but it was Royal Vacation who would have chased him home in the Kauto Star and he'll need to put in a better performance than he did here 12 months ago to beat Politologue even over 3m, notwithstanding the fact he needs to put Haydock behind him.

    - Waiting Patiently has similar stamina doubts to Politologue but also has the added concern of coming here off the back of 11 months on the sidelines and on their novice chase form they're pretty equally matched.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 20th December 2018 at 1:26 PM.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to wilsonl For This Useful Post:

    Danny (20th December 2018)

  3. #22
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    He got that OR by beating Min at Aintree. I don't trust that form

  4. #23
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    I'd trust that form Euro its solid enough but whichever way you look at an Official rating it is earned under a different set of circumstances i.e trip to what he faces if he doesn't stay then he's officially rated crap at 3 mile but 150, 160 or whatever at 2m4f.

    I actually like politilogue and I can see the case why people like him. 11/2 that he stays the trip is one thing, 11/2 that he's the best stayer in the country is a different matter.

    I could say what most of you realistically know that its tight not one of the first few in the betting would be a huge surprise and realistically its one to probably watch and savour rather than have a bet in. Me myself I just love having a pop in the big races and backing some sort of opinion even though its not the best thing to do regards making money at the game, we're probably all a little guilty of that. If anyone could nail there colours to the mast and say this is a certainty and this is why, in this King George I'd be surprised most will admit its wide open. Personally I'd love to see Ruth Jefferson pull it off with Waiting Patiently it would be some training feat and I always loved the stable under her Father. Can't see it myself really if I had to pick an outright winner it'd probably be Might bite. I also think the Shuffler and Tea for two will probably run with credit again. Best bet as I said I can probably see the value in giving throwing a few sheckels at one last hurrah for Coney even though it would grieve me to listen to the Bradstocks.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  5. #24
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    He got that OR by beating Min at Aintree. I don't trust that form
    but confirmed it when giving weight and a beating to race fit and now 162 rated Charbel at Ascot.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  6. #25
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    This is the sort of race which is tough at the current prices given how close we are to Boxing Day. I much prefer less competitive events when it comes to shall we say day of race markets. That said I like to take a view ap and I do have Thistlecrack as the 3rd leg of a treble (Def Red and Altior from TC day) so have a little wiggle room. I've put BDM in a double with Road to Respect.

  7. #26
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,099
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    The only horse we don't know enough about is Waiting Patiently.

    Hard to work out what his form is worth but he has a tremendous turn of foot for a 3 mile chaser something the rest lack.

    If he turns up without a run either they are stone mad or extremely confident. Like Cheltenham it's a waste of space running in the KG if not 110%

    Another mystery is why does Bristol De Mai go from world beater to a donkey in such a short space of time.

    I don't buy this "his beloved Haydock" I would put it down to immaturity and expect him to go very close.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  8. #27
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts
    A horse hasn't won the KG on its seasonal debut since just after the second world war.

  9. The Following User Says Thank You to Diamond Geezer For This Useful Post:

    littlelad (20th December 2018)

  10. #28
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    he has a tremendous turn of foot for a 3 mile chaser something the rest lack.
    We don’t whether he is a 3 mile chaser yet though Fist
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  11. #29
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,099
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    A horse hasn't won the KG on its seasonal debut since just after the second world war.
    You would know
    Formely Fist of Fury

  12. The Following User Says Thank You to Tanlic For This Useful Post:

    Diamond Geezer (21st December 2018)

  13. #30
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,099
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    We don’t whether he is a 3 mile chaser yet though Fist
    Yep!! however Cue Card went some gallop in the Betfair he had Frost and Jacob in panic mode before the home turn while WP was still pulling for his head and raring to go at the second last.

    There is a slight worry as he wandered right on the run in but he still found plenty in what was holding ground.

    Kempton's 3 miles is as tough as any to get because it's an extremely fast course and speed saps stamina as much as stamina saps speed

    Winners like One Man Silver Buck Wayward Lad Kauto Star's and Long Run's all were great travelers, had speed to burn and on song were near impossible to beat in a finish

    Waiting Patiently is very similar in type unlike the others and if he gets 3 miles I reckon this is all over before it starts
    Formely Fist of Fury

  14. #31
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    A horse hasn't won the KG on its seasonal debut since just after the second world war.
    How many with realistic prospects of winning the race have tried, though?

    WP has, as you reported earlier, had a racecourse gallop and that can be as important as a jog around against poor opposition in a scheduled race. On top of that, training and conditioning methods are evolving all the time so it's only a matter of time before a potential winner becomes an actual winner on its seasonal debut.

    It probably won't happen this season but it will happen.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  15. #32
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post

    WP has, as you reported earlier, had a racecourse gallop and that can be as important as a jog around against poor opposition in a scheduled race.
    Has had another at Hexham as well

  16. #33
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    How many with realistic prospects of winning the race have tried, though?

    .
    That comes down again to what we were talking about the other day with stats Des for the people who understand that there are lie's,damn lies and then Statistics or if you even take the Mick Mcarthy view of "Them stats are minging". Its not even a case of how many have tried ? That gives you one number, once you have that number you could say well how many of them who have tried were viable candidates? If there were 20 to try and they all went off at 100/1 then 20 losers would not be out of the oridnary. Well maybe 20 of them were all odds on and got beat well then you're more than likely onto something. To find anything meaningful out of things like this you need huge sample groups and to add in all the variables.

    Does Waiting Patiently have the talent or the class however you like to phrase it?.I certainly think so.

    Will Waiting patiently see out a strongly run 3 miles?.I'm not sure at all one way or the other so 50% chance I'd say.

    Will the race be run to suit ? Most definitely although it usually pays to be front rank in a KG both Native river and BDM and even Might Bite to some degree might want to be forcing the issue so if we we're going to play into WP's hands I think sitting off a break neck pace as he did at Ascot is as good as the team can hope for.

    Is he better then Might Bite or Native river ? At Kempton ? Definitely, maybe If he's going to get Native river especially its easier to do him here.

    I'd love to see him do it personally but think his price is about right.
    Last edited by Danny; 21st December 2018 at 10:47 AM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  17. #34
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Ireland
    Posts
    1,913
    Thanks
    138
    Thanked 120 Times in 105 Posts
    Regarding Waiting Patiently not having had a prep run this season, this is nothing unusual for this horse.
    Past 2 years he made his seasonal reappearance after 288 and 296 day breaks and won both times easily. The KG will be a 312 day break.
    Fully appreciate the KG is a completely different level of test than his previous seasonal debuts, but the horse doesn't know any different. He's used to this.

  18. #35
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Ireland
    Posts
    1,913
    Thanks
    138
    Thanked 120 Times in 105 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Will the race be run to suit ? Most definitely although it usually pays to be front rank in a KG both Native river and BDM and even Might Bite to some degree might want to be forcing the issue so if we we're going to play into WP's hands I think sitting off a break neck pace as he did at Ascot is as good as the team can hope for..
    I really believe that too many of the market leaders want to and almost need to lead.
    Hard to argue that all 4 of BDM, Might Bite, Native River and Thistlecrack (to a degree) are better when they lead and dictate from the front.
    While Kempton isn't renowned as a track for hold up horses, I think this year there's a good chance a lot of these could cut each others throats at the head of affairs.
    As you say Danny, if WP can sit just off this pace and make his move late on I think he has a great chance. (Of Course assuming he stays the trip)

  19. #36
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    That's a decent point Shane more relevant perhaps to Might Bite though.

    Might Bite won on seasonal reappearance last year but lost this year. Its the point you make about completely different sort of tests though.

    Going off memory but didn't he beat something like Label des Obeaux last year at Sandown ? Now thats seen as a good prep but finishing beaten in a Betfair chase is seen as a bad one. I'm trying to figure if Label Des Obeaux would have rounded the turn by the time they crossed the line in the Betfair. You see the point ? Thats why I'm not overly concerned for Might Bite on that basis. However having said that he wasn't really at his best on Boxing day and his best run By far was actually in the Gold Cup, these patterns develop over time but he may just turn out to be a horse who is simply better in the Spring. Some may argue he was going to win his Feltham very impressivey which is fair enough although he wasn't beating much. I'd argue though if not for the antics he showed up the Hill in the RSA that was by far his best performance of that campaign so maybe whatever he does on Boxing day you could expect better at the Spring Festivals.

    Was replying to previous post Shane hadn't seen your second one.
    Last edited by Danny; 21st December 2018 at 11:12 AM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  20. #37
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    Can't have Waiting Patiently on prep and trainer grounds.

  21. #38
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    If horses can win the Derby first time out there's no reason they can't win the King George first time out. They just have to be good enough.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. #39
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    The only horses I can think of who won the Derby first time out recently were Shaamit and Lammtarra. Both of those horses won poor renewals and showed improved form in races after Epsom (which is unusual.) WP is up against established high class chasers. It's a totally different ask imo.

  23. #40
    Senior Member PlaceBacker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    2,643
    Thanks
    428
    Thanked 317 Times in 260 Posts
    Be some training performance by Ruth if Waiting Patiently can win
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •