Page 1 of 6 123456 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 116

Thread: The 32Red Winter Festival Kempton Park Wed 26 Dec & Thurs 27 Dec 2018

  1. #1
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts

    The 32Red Winter Festival Kempton Park Wed 26 Dec & Thurs 27 Dec 2018

    A few tit bits re the King George from Chris Cook of The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...P=share_btn_tw

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to Diamond Geezer For This Useful Post:

    Danny (12th December 2018)

  3. #2
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    Next year for Altior so
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  4. #3
    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Thames Valley
    Posts
    2,646
    Thanks
    502
    Thanked 614 Times in 372 Posts
    I will be there 26th and probably 27th if anyone wants to catch up for a festive beer

  5. #4
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    South Lanarkshire
    Posts
    5,523
    Thanks
    306
    Thanked 397 Times in 357 Posts

    King George VI Chase

    Looking forward to this one, quite the mouthwatering clash.

    Native River
    Might Bite
    Bristol de Mai
    Thistlecrack
    Politologue
    Waiting Patiently

    to name just 6.

    No idea what wins it - but I'm veering towards Thistlecrack & Native River as my two against the field.

  6. #5
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    912
    Thanks
    572
    Thanked 319 Times in 293 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by simmo View Post
    Looking forward to this one, quite the mouthwatering clash.

    Native River
    Might Bite
    Bristol de Mai
    Thistlecrack
    Politologue
    Waiting Patiently

    to name just 6.

    No idea what wins it - but I'm veering towards Thistlecrack & Native River as my two against the field.
    Me neither Simmo but hoping to "crack the code" of the race

  7. #6
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    South Lanarkshire
    Posts
    5,523
    Thanks
    306
    Thanked 397 Times in 357 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by 2017diary View Post
    Me neither Simmo but hoping to "crack the code" of the race
    Sure the conditions of that competition were that it would be a Saturday or Sunday.....

    But it would make an excellent finale to an already enjoyable comp

  8. #7
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts
    Seems a good idea, it's only for fun, so we'll do that. One this weekend and then the KG.

  9. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Diamond Geezer For This Useful Post:

    2017diary (19th December 2018), simmo (19th December 2018)

  10. #8
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    155
    Thanks
    62
    Thanked 65 Times in 46 Posts
    3.05 – 32Red King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

    15/16 – Had won a Grade One chase before
    15/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
    15/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
    15/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
    14/16 – Placed favourites
    14/16 – French (10) or Irish bred (4)
    14/16 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
    13/16 – Officially rated 169 or higher
    12/16 – Aged 8 or younger
    11/16 – Winning favourites
    11/16 – Won last time out
    10/16 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
    9/16 – Ran in the Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out
    8/16 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
    7/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
    7/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (9 times in all)
    5/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
    2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
    2/16 – Ridden by Noel Fehily
    2/16 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 3 in the last 32 runnings)

    Colin Tizzard and Nicky Henderson have trained 5 of the last 8 winners (2 Tizzard, 3 Henderson)
    The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 7/2.

    from the geegeez site.

  11. The Following User Says Thank You to luckyme For This Useful Post:

    Danny (19th December 2018)

  12. #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    Number 10 for Nicholls next Wednesday
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  13. #10
    Senior Member PlaceBacker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    2,643
    Thanks
    428
    Thanked 317 Times in 260 Posts
    ...agree but which one?
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  14. #11
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    Politologue
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  15. The Following User Says Thank You to wilsonl For This Useful Post:

    Bonjers (19th December 2018)

  16. #12
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    am against Politolugue for 2 reasons

    Not certain that 3m is his optimum

    Think he is a few lbs short of top class
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  17. #13
    Senior Member PlaceBacker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    2,643
    Thanks
    428
    Thanked 317 Times in 260 Posts
    Clan Des Obeaux for me...each way [20-1]
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  18. #14
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Cheltenham
    Posts
    3,687
    Thanks
    346
    Thanked 379 Times in 314 Posts
    Can't see Politologue staying.

  19. #15
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    He’s got to run an extra 3f than he has before admittedly but he spent his novice chase season campaigned over 20/21f until switched back to the minimum, falling when looking likely to win in the Maghull.

    To quote connections; a flat track is what he needs and away from Cheltenham (which he clearly doesn’t like) he’s been beaten by three horses; 2nd to Barters Hill in the Challow on his first completed start in the UK, 1.25L 2nd To Waiting Patiently when giving 3lb and a 4L beating by Altior in the Game Spirit.

    Most of those near the top of the market have questions to answer but I’d be fairly certain he’ll like the course, any going the weather throws up and will be able to lie up with any pace the likes of Might Bite et al decide to inject.

    He’ll be in unknown territory as they enter the home straight but the trainer and jockey think this track/trip will be perfect and he’s looked strong at the end of his races over the intermediate trip so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt because as much as I love Might Bite, Politilogue and Waiting Patiently are the two for me who could prove the next stars but Jefferson’s horse has it to do after so long off.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 20th December 2018 at 7:21 AM.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  20. The Following User Says Thank You to wilsonl For This Useful Post:

    Danny (20th December 2018)

  21. #16
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    7,311
    Thanks
    814
    Thanked 1,033 Times in 875 Posts
    Agree with most of that,Lee.
    This is what PN had to say after his Melling Chase win, last season:
    "Politologue jumped and stayed on really strongly. He wanted two and a half. He blew his brains at Cheltenham, so we had the hood on today and I think a flat track suits him".
    That Aintree win came on proper soft ground too, and the horse ran his p.b. T/S figure, which should dispel any doubts of it not being a proper test.

  22. The Following User Says Thank You to reet hard For This Useful Post:

    wilsonl (20th December 2018)

  23. #17
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    He also outstayed Vintage Clouds over an extended 2m5f in soft ground at Haydock (though what the exact distance would have been is anybody's guess) on his first run over fences and while Vintage Clouds hasn't always been the most resolute in a battle, what he does do is stay. That's not the sign of a horse who's short of stamina IMO.

    Regardless, these sort of conundrums are why (along with Desrt Orchid) the King George will always be the best staying chase of the year for me, where you have the established Gold Cup horses facing off against up and coming types that have been thus far plying their trade between 2m & 2m4f.

    Can't wait.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  24. #18
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    The issue with Politologue is only partially a question of stamina. Has he the class? I don't think so.

  25. #19
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    2,659
    Thanks
    20
    Thanked 123 Times in 101 Posts
    i think in most king george years a horse like politologue would have to actually improve for the extra distance rather than just stay

    not sure this year though with question marks hanging over all the other principle horses in the race

    it's a race i usually love betting on but i'm finding it quite the puzzle this year

  26. #20
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    The issue for me with any of them is price. Really 11/2 Politilogue for the King George ? Bristol De mai 7/1 away from Haydock again .....really ? Native River and Might Bite set a very high standard imo the Gold Cup was a bloody solid one. However do they represent value MB off the back of a bad performance last time, well out of all of them I'd except that as an excuse first time up and Haydock is not everyone's cup of tea so of all the top lot he has the least to answer but what 4/1 is only fair at best. Native River hard to forget his Feltham flop here I love the horse but this is tough again his price is fair ish. Waiting Patiently brethtakingly brilliant here and at Ascot will he stay and is he capable first time up? possibly but 5/1 ?

    Which ever one of those you decide to go with there is a big question to be answered. Yes we think those speedier types will stay, year after year we'll think they'll stay and there have been better types trying to make the leap from shorter trips, didn't the likes of Azertioup and Master minded try it amongst various others. And the one that actually made the transition was the most bloody unlikely one of the lot in old Edredon !

    However we're all willing to plunge into the unknown with the more sexy types at short prices and we're prepared to take a chance at ridiculously short prices in a very competitive event. Why then is it that we're not so keen to take a chance on something that may well require less of a leap.

    Coneygree 33/1. O.k he pulled up twice last season and had various problems what if we were to take a chance that those problems maybe had been sorted what then ? We have a proven Top Class 3 miler who won his Feltham by a distance won a very decent Gold cup as a novice and has only had 10 chase starts at the age of 11 not exactly a lot of miles on the clock. In fairness his prep at Cheltenham 6 lengths behind Rock the Kasbah giving away a stone as Prep runs go after an absence ...I'd suggest that's not a bloody bad one. If Reet wants to say throw Politilogues best TopSpeed figure out there in the way of making a case he ran TS of 154 at his absolute best peaked for spring festivals and over a trip of 2m4f. Coneygree on comeback has run 151, not a bad standard, they've gone a decent clip and its been a fair test.

    Will his health hold together one more time ? That's a question no bigger than some that hang over the heads of the market leaders but you could probably back Coneygree to frame at bigger than you can one of those to win.

    Always seeing the Aardvark in the room.
    Last edited by Danny; 20th December 2018 at 1:11 PM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •