A few tit bits re the King George from Chris Cook of The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...P=share_btn_tw
A few tit bits re the King George from Chris Cook of The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...P=share_btn_tw
Danny (12th December 2018)
Next year for Altior so
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
I will be there 26th and probably 27th if anyone wants to catch up for a festive beer
Looking forward to this one, quite the mouthwatering clash.
Native River
Might Bite
Bristol de Mai
Thistlecrack
Politologue
Waiting Patiently
to name just 6.
No idea what wins it - but I'm veering towards Thistlecrack & Native River as my two against the field.
Seems a good idea, it's only for fun, so we'll do that. One this weekend and then the KG.
3.05 – 32Red King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV
15/16 – Had won a Grade One chase before
15/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/16 – Placed favourites
14/16 – French (10) or Irish bred (4)
14/16 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
13/16 – Officially rated 169 or higher
12/16 – Aged 8 or younger
11/16 – Winning favourites
11/16 – Won last time out
10/16 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
9/16 – Ran in the Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out
8/16 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
7/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (9 times in all)
5/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Noel Fehily
2/16 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 3 in the last 32 runnings)
Colin Tizzard and Nicky Henderson have trained 5 of the last 8 winners (2 Tizzard, 3 Henderson)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 7/2.
from the geegeez site.
Danny (19th December 2018)
Number 10 for Nicholls next Wednesday
Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."
...agree but which one?
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
Politologue
Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."
Bonjers (19th December 2018)
am against Politolugue for 2 reasons
Not certain that 3m is his optimum
Think he is a few lbs short of top class
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
Clan Des Obeaux for me...each way [20-1]
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
Can't see Politologue staying.
He’s got to run an extra 3f than he has before admittedly but he spent his novice chase season campaigned over 20/21f until switched back to the minimum, falling when looking likely to win in the Maghull.
To quote connections; a flat track is what he needs and away from Cheltenham (which he clearly doesn’t like) he’s been beaten by three horses; 2nd to Barters Hill in the Challow on his first completed start in the UK, 1.25L 2nd To Waiting Patiently when giving 3lb and a 4L beating by Altior in the Game Spirit.
Most of those near the top of the market have questions to answer but I’d be fairly certain he’ll like the course, any going the weather throws up and will be able to lie up with any pace the likes of Might Bite et al decide to inject.
He’ll be in unknown territory as they enter the home straight but the trainer and jockey think this track/trip will be perfect and he’s looked strong at the end of his races over the intermediate trip so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt because as much as I love Might Bite, Politilogue and Waiting Patiently are the two for me who could prove the next stars but Jefferson’s horse has it to do after so long off.
Last edited by wilsonl; 20th December 2018 at 7:21 AM.
Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."
Danny (20th December 2018)
Agree with most of that,Lee.
This is what PN had to say after his Melling Chase win, last season:
"Politologue jumped and stayed on really strongly. He wanted two and a half. He blew his brains at Cheltenham, so we had the hood on today and I think a flat track suits him".
That Aintree win came on proper soft ground too, and the horse ran his p.b. T/S figure, which should dispel any doubts of it not being a proper test.
wilsonl (20th December 2018)
He also outstayed Vintage Clouds over an extended 2m5f in soft ground at Haydock (though what the exact distance would have been is anybody's guess) on his first run over fences and while Vintage Clouds hasn't always been the most resolute in a battle, what he does do is stay. That's not the sign of a horse who's short of stamina IMO.
Regardless, these sort of conundrums are why (along with Desrt Orchid) the King George will always be the best staying chase of the year for me, where you have the established Gold Cup horses facing off against up and coming types that have been thus far plying their trade between 2m & 2m4f.
Can't wait.
Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."
The issue with Politologue is only partially a question of stamina. Has he the class? I don't think so.
i think in most king george years a horse like politologue would have to actually improve for the extra distance rather than just stay
not sure this year though with question marks hanging over all the other principle horses in the race
it's a race i usually love betting on but i'm finding it quite the puzzle this year
The issue for me with any of them is price. Really 11/2 Politilogue for the King George ? Bristol De mai 7/1 away from Haydock again .....really ? Native River and Might Bite set a very high standard imo the Gold Cup was a bloody solid one. However do they represent value MB off the back of a bad performance last time, well out of all of them I'd except that as an excuse first time up and Haydock is not everyone's cup of tea so of all the top lot he has the least to answer but what 4/1 is only fair at best. Native River hard to forget his Feltham flop here I love the horse but this is tough again his price is fair ish. Waiting Patiently brethtakingly brilliant here and at Ascot will he stay and is he capable first time up? possibly but 5/1 ?
Which ever one of those you decide to go with there is a big question to be answered. Yes we think those speedier types will stay, year after year we'll think they'll stay and there have been better types trying to make the leap from shorter trips, didn't the likes of Azertioup and Master minded try it amongst various others. And the one that actually made the transition was the most bloody unlikely one of the lot in old Edredon !
However we're all willing to plunge into the unknown with the more sexy types at short prices and we're prepared to take a chance at ridiculously short prices in a very competitive event. Why then is it that we're not so keen to take a chance on something that may well require less of a leap.
Coneygree 33/1. O.k he pulled up twice last season and had various problems what if we were to take a chance that those problems maybe had been sorted what then ? We have a proven Top Class 3 miler who won his Feltham by a distance won a very decent Gold cup as a novice and has only had 10 chase starts at the age of 11 not exactly a lot of miles on the clock. In fairness his prep at Cheltenham 6 lengths behind Rock the Kasbah giving away a stone as Prep runs go after an absence ...I'd suggest that's not a bloody bad one. If Reet wants to say throw Politilogues best TopSpeed figure out there in the way of making a case he ran TS of 154 at his absolute best peaked for spring festivals and over a trip of 2m4f. Coneygree on comeback has run 151, not a bad standard, they've gone a decent clip and its been a fair test.
Will his health hold together one more time ? That's a question no bigger than some that hang over the heads of the market leaders but you could probably back Coneygree to frame at bigger than you can one of those to win.
Always seeing the Aardvark in the room.
Last edited by Danny; 20th December 2018 at 1:11 PM.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.