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Thread: Next Prime Minister Book

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    Next Prime Minister Book

    I'm not sure I get this

    The Bookies currently have Jeremy Corbyn as favourite at 5/1. OK, that's straight forward enough

    They also have another book about the year that Theresa May leaves. Not surprisingly 2019 is favourite, top price 11/8, with this year (or what's left of it) next best at 9/4. In other words their over-round on those two outcomes is 73%

    If they really believe she's out of office in the next 12 months, then how are they making Corbyn favourite?

    If Theresa May is forced from office (which is what the second book is suggesting) then she's being replaced by another conservative, who then becomes the 'next Prime Minister'. Corbyn should be about 10/1, but since he's taking out 17% of the book, others who should be shorter are actually priced up longer

    The only way Corbyn stands a chance of being the next PM is for Theresa May to call an election, and it needn't be guaranteed that Corbyn would win that anyway. Even if he did, he'd likely only do so in coalition with the SNP and or the Libs, in which case they'd insist on him withdrawing Article 50 as condition of their support, so he might not even get through the door even if he were to win

    The next Prime Minister will be technocrat who is well versed in negotiating Brexit, which means David Davis at 12/1 or Michael Gove at 10/1 are the obvious value.

    The big priced outsider incidentally would be Dominic Grieve (who isn't priced up) so Anna Soubry at 150/1 has to serve as a proxy, but a remain Tory also has a path which few people seem to be aware of. It requires Theresa May to lose a no confidence (feasible) and for the remain wing of the Tory party to field their own candidate (which they can do). Remember that a majority of the Tory MP's are remainers. The leadership ballot is held in secret. No parliamentary division where constituency members and chairmen can check up on which way their MP voted There are few electorates in the world more duplicitous and dishonest than the parliamentary conservative party. It's possible (though unlikely) that a remain candidate could come through and get to the run off (well it's not a 150/1 chance anyway). If the whole thing is going tits up by then, well who knows what the final outcome would be? By then it would be a choice between a hard Brexit and a no Brexit. Might the conservative membership blink?
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

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    Even though I've been a Labour voter most of my voting life I'd love to have Anna Soubry as PM, if only for the fact that we've met her at the races!

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    Wouldn't even try and predict anything for the torys although anna soubrey would be way off the scale for me,personally i hope gove does take over,public hate him
    and david davies well another John major..

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    The Remainian who has perhaps indicated she holds leadership ambitions in the past is Nicky Morgan. She might be the most likely standard bearer to emerge from that wing of the party. If they do stand a candidate in a leadership battle, it might force the Brexiteers into fielding two candidates in an attempt to close off the possibility of withdraw article 50 and remain candidate even reaching the final. It needn't be clear to me that a Brexiteer would win a secret ballot of conservative MP's
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

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    So much for a 'strong and stable' government. What a bloomin' mess it all is....[and don't get me started on Labour at the moment, either....]

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    Senior Member walsworth's Avatar
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    I don't think Jeremy Corbyn will ever lead the Labour party to an election win, too many traditional Labour voters believe some of the spin from the media about him being a terrorist supporter for a start.
    My guess for next PM will be the Hon member for the eighteenth century Rees Mogg, although he says he doesn't want to be leader, you can bet your bottom dollar he does.
    I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
    Take a bow for the new revolution

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    Too many traditional Labour voters recognise how much of a fuckwit he is, more like.

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    Senior Member walsworth's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AliGupter View Post
    Too many traditional Labour voters recognise how much of a fuckwit he is, more like.
    Well you are entitled to your opinion and you know what you can do with it.
    Having spoken to Mr Corbyn on several occasions at Tolpuddle he is worth more than any dozen Tories that you would like to mention.
    I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
    Take a bow for the new revolution

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    Quote Originally Posted by walsworth View Post
    Well you are entitled to your opinion and you know what you can do with it.
    Having spoken to Mr Corbyn on several occasions at Tolpuddle he is worth more than any dozen Tories that you would like to mention.
    I was a Labour member and voter for years, Corbyn got re-elected and I chucked it in. To the point that I actually voted for the Conservatives in the last election, and I can't stand the people in power in that party.

    He simply doesn't live in the real world.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by walsworth View Post
    My guess for next PM will be the Hon member for the eighteenth century Rees Mogg, although he says he doesn't want to be leader, you can bet your bottom dollar he does.
    He can want it all he wants. He won't be allowed as he's a Catholic.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    He can want it all he wants. He won't be allowed as he's a Catholic.
    Is your thinking there that the Tory party are anti-Catholic or the entire country?

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    It's statutory, I believe. There's something in the books about Catholics not being allowed to be PM. Something to do with the relationship between the head of the government (Madge) and head of the church (of England - also Madge).

    It's why Tony Blair had to wait until he was ousted before converting officially.

    I'm more than happy to be corrected, though.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    It strikes me that that is a law that could be repealed fairly easily in this day and age.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    You'd think...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Jo Johnson value at 260 over the brother who is 9.4.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    At that price you don't need much upside.

    The gamble really hinges on a number of things

    1: Do you think Brexit is going to be reversed (price up a referendum). I'd say it's about 30% (as I've said all along) which is about 5/2 at 100% over-round
    2: Do you think Remain can achieve 51%? say that's about 60%, so 4/6 on
    3: Would a defeat lead to Theresa May having to resign? possibly, but it needn't matter, as I would have thought her prospects of leading them into the GE after her risible performance in 2017 will be low and enough to ensure that she'll be removed, thus ensuring that the next PM will be the conservative who replaces her
    4: If they lose a second referendum one would think they'll need a remainer to heel the wounds, who?
    5: Grieve is an obvious candidate, whereas the likes of Sourbry carries too much baggage and is too spikey. Justine Greening is no way PM material, so that leaves Nicky Morgan (who isn't either - despite what she thinks)
    6: Jo Johnson has only ever been a junior minister. It's difficult to go from such a background straight into No.10. Don't think anyone has ever done it? Most PM's are sourced straight from one of the three great offices of state, which means Phillip Hammond should be prominent and probably the front-runner on this scenario (can't see that Javid or Hunt are viable)
    7: On the other hand, Johnson is erudite and hasn't got the baggage that others have (other than a dodgy brother). I'd make him 10/1 on the scenario described

    so crudely it's 5/2 + 4/6 + 10/1 = about 44/1 (although clearly they won't price to 100%)
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

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    About the same price when he won the 1986 world snooker championship..

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    Well this thread needs resurrecting given that the slug in human form is now 3/1 fav

    I think bookies always get this market wrong, as for months they price up the leader of the opposition much shorter they should and this creates value elsewhere in the over-round.

    Look at the recent evidence

    Theresa May - will be replaced by one of her party
    David Cameron (twat!) - was replaced by one of his own party
    Gordon Brown - was replaced by leader of the opposition
    Tony Blair - was replaced by one of his own party
    John Major - was replaced by leader of the opposition
    Margaret Snatcher - was replaced by one of her own party
    Jim Callaghan - was replaced by leader of the opposition
    Harold Wilson- was replaced by one of his own party
    Ted Heath - was replaced by leader of the opposition
    Alec Douglas Home - was replaced by leader of the opposition
    Harold Macmillan - was replaced by one of his own party
    Anthony Eden - was replaced by one of his own party
    Winston Churchill - was replaced by one of his own party
    Clement Atlee - was replaced by leader of the opposition

    So there you have the post war PM's, all 14 of them, of which 8 were (or will be) replaced by a member of their own party

    Last edited by Warbler; 28th March 2019 at 11:42 PM.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

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    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    The sliminess of Gove probably appeals to the Conservative voter base - they love a slimy ****. It may be time to change my avatar to a pic of Himmler.

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    Fingers crossed its johnson,even corbyn can beat him although it looks very ominously that slimey **** and backstabber gove it will be,can you imagine any person under the age of 50 voting for that **** ..

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