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Thread: The Non-Triers Thread

  1. #21
    SlimChance
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    Today was a strange days racing. So many big drifters but it was more a case of the types of races than anything not trying. That's the problem with this time of year, so many horses running over hurdles and fences for the first time. One that was completely dead in the market all day and ran like the 186 day break meant it couldn't put its best foot forward was Birch Vale in the 2.15 Ayr. Given the trainer is in good form you'd have to think this one will come on a lot for the run.

  2. #22
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've just been logging up last weekend's results with my ratings.

    I should mention one that, in my opinion, was only there for a jog round as part of a longer-term preparation. It will be no stranger to the forum.

    Un Temps Pour Tout

    Back over hurdles for his first run since winning his second Ultima in 2017 - remember he was off because the race took so much out of him initially before he was injured - he jumped off last and in my opinion was never asked to improve his position.

    Personally, I don't think he was prepping for the Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy). His trainer is on record as saying the horse is rubbish (that might have been the exact word) in the autumn and only comes good in the spring (by way of explaining his two Ultima wins, perhaps) so my very strong belief is that the Grand National is a very serious target.

    On my figures, the horse remains ridiculously well-handicapped. For me he is a potential Gold Cup winner but whether they will want him to take that in along the road to Aintree I'm not sure. They might not want to leave his Aintree hopes behind if the Gold Cup field turns out to be above average this season. I imagine a few runs just behind the placed horses at trips over three miles or shorter in order to take another 7lbs or so off his mark will mean that if he arrives at Aintree at the top of his game only mishap can beat him.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  4. #23
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've just been logging up last weekend's results with my ratings.

    I should mention one that, in my opinion, was only there for a jog round as part of a longer-term preparation. It will be no stranger to the forum.

    Un Temps Pour Tout

    Back over hurdles for his first run since winning his second Ultima in 2017 - remember he was off because the race took so much out of him initially before he was injured - he jumped off last and in my opinion was never asked to improve his position.

    Personally, I don't think he was prepping for the Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy). His trainer is on record as saying the horse is rubbish (that might have been the exact word) in the autumn and only comes good in the spring (by way of explaining his two Ultima wins, perhaps) so my very strong belief is that the Grand National is a very serious target.

    On my figures, the horse remains ridiculously well-handicapped. For me he is a potential Gold Cup winner but whether they will want him to take that in along the road to Aintree I'm not sure. They might not want to leave his Aintree hopes behind if the Gold Cup field turns out to be above average this season. I imagine a few runs just behind the placed horses at trips over three miles or shorter in order to take another 7lbs or so off his mark will mean that if he arrives at Aintree at the top of his game only mishap can beat him.
    That makes a lot of sense. To be fair to them the second Ultima was one of the best pieces of long term planning of the last few years. They landed a right touch.

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  6. #24
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    They landed a right touch.
    They weren't the only ones
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  8. #25
    SlimChance
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    66/1 with Hills seems a fair price to tip away with over the winter.

  9. #26
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Already on. UTPT is two stone better than stablemate Vieux Lion Rouge who has run well for four miles in the race more than once.

    I still think the big danger will be Noble Endeavor.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  10. #27
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've just realised UTPT (and maybe NE too) will need to win a three-mile chase to qualify for the National, won't they?

    I imagine connections will be poring over the book to look for soft targets that won't affect ratings.
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  11. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Snugsborough hall.
    Ran ifirst time in a chase under O'reagan a couple of weeks ago and looked as if it was looking for a handicap mark.
    Imo
    Backed into 8s from 20s today and ran well until weakened late on.

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  13. #29
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I want to look again at most of the races (will do over the next couple of days) but a couple of candidates for the thread immediately spring to mind.

    At Haydock, I thought Cliffs Of Dover got a strange ride, held up off a moderate pace and rushed up the outside on the back straight before the jockey appeared to me to but the brakes on quite suddenly rounding the bend. Maybe that was to avoid being carried wide but he quickly appeared to accept that any chance had gone and allowed the horse to come home in his own time. Incidentally, in the same race my main bet was on Ch'Tibello. He appeared to be allowed to drop back from a reasonable early position and was in trouble in the back straight. This run was far removed from the animal that was touted as a Champion Hurdle candidate a couple of seasons back. I presume there is a problem of some sort or maybe they are just trying to get his mark right down for Newbury in February. Having seen the race again, I'm not so sure about John Constable being a non-trier. It was maybe too early to judge when he came down as he was lobbing along.

    At Ascot, I wouldn't have been happy if I'd backed Benatar. I didn't think he was good enough to be competitive in this race but if he was going to have a shout in last week's Mackeson you'd have thought he'd have been closer to the principals. He appeared to me to be prepping for something. Maybe the Massey-Ferguson?
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  14. #30
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Skelton and the owner said before the season started that they'd had a lot of issues with Chtibello and were wondering whether to bring him back in at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bonjers View Post
    Skelton and the owner said before the season started that they'd had a lot of issues with Chtibello and were wondering whether to bring him back in at all.
    The owner is a punter they’ll have hatched a plan for sure.

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    Ch'tibello is thoroughly exposed: That's the problem. He will need to drop 10lb in the handicap just to win a class 3, let alone the big handicap in February at Newbury.
    Last edited by Marb; 25th November 2018 at 10:54 PM.

  17. #33
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bonjers View Post
    Skelton and the owner said before the season started that they'd had a lot of issues with Chtibello and were wondering whether to bring him back in at all.
    He's got a problem with his landing leg. Zero chance he ever jumps a fence.

  18. #34
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I want to look again at most of the races (will do over the next couple of days) but a couple of candidates for the thread immediately spring to mind.

    in the same race my main bet was on Ch'Tibello. He appeared to be allowed to drop back from a reasonable early position and was in trouble in the back straight. This run was far removed from the animal that was touted as a Champion Hurdle candidate a couple of seasons back. I presume there is a problem of some sort or maybe they are just trying to get his mark right down for Newbury in February. Having seen the race again,
    Think 2016...

  19. #35
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    Absolutely. By March he'll have a winning mark for the Count Hurdle and probably to back it up at Aintree! I've zero doubt they're messing around with him. If the wheels had come off he'd have already gone through the sale ring.

  20. #36
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    I can't have this. Ch'tibello has won over 200 grand in prize money. He owes connections nothing. So the idea they'd just sell him off when he loses his form is incorrect. However, he is out of form and this cycle can take months if not years to change. The idea he should be top of anyone's list as an anti post fancy for anything this season is bonkers. There are loads of other interesting horses for these races. Ch'tibello is not one.
    Last edited by Marb; 26th November 2018 at 12:14 PM.

  21. #37
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Lot of categories here.

    Some get stopped, some are run unfit, some are run at the wrong trip and some are run like one yesterday who allegedly burst a blood vessel in training but they ran him anyway because it was a valuable prize.

    There's 2 problems with stopping one.....1. He has to be good enough to stop in the first place.

    2. Stopping one that is good enough to stop is so obvious you end up getting crap odds.

    The smart trainer runs them 5 canters short of a gallop then blames fences when they run like a pig....Sorry NJH joking
    Formely Fist of Fury

  22. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    I can't have this. Ch'tibello has won over 200 grand in prize money. He owes connections nothing. So the idea they'd just sell him off when he loses his form is incorrect. However, he is out of form and this cycle can take months if not years to change. The idea he should be top of anyone's list as an anti post fancy for anything this season is bonkers. There are loads of other interesting horses for these races. Ch'tibello is not one.
    Why not? There's a difference between losing form and having an underlying problem. Read between the lines. You said it yourself he's won 200k and owes connections nothing. Depending on the mind of the owner he'd either go through the sales ring or be retired if there was a fundamental problem.

  23. #39
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    I reckon they'll give him until at least the end of the season, Paul. I just can't see him being laid out for anything, I really can't, but if I am proved wrong, I will happily eat humble pie. The Skelton yard have the young and progressive, Solomon Grey, for starters, who we were chatting about before The Festival last March, where he eventually didn't take up his entry, in The County, (the Skelton's landed it with Mohaayed). Solomon Grey finished third behind Ifthecapfits last December. Hence, I am much more interested in a horse such as Solomon Grey on a rating of 135, than I am about Ch'tibello. Each to own though mate, I agree to disagree.
    Last edited by Marb; 26th November 2018 at 5:21 PM.

  24. #40
    SlimChance
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    Lads I've given you the exact answers but no one can see it. Depressing.

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