Off the top of my head, Total Recall, Native River, Smad Place, Many Clouds, Denman, Bobsworth, Strong Flow, State Of Play and Trabolgan all won from near or at the head of the market. Sort of surprising, considering how competitive a race it is.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
I think it's fair to say Carruthers is atypical of a Hennessy winner.
However, he was only 13/2 for his RSA and had gone up to 156 for winning the Reynoldstown the time before (beat the Nicholls/Walsh 5/4f hands down) so to get into the Hennessy off 146 two years later following two moderate seasons was getting in lightly.
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Black Corton looks overpriced to me at 20/1
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Outsider (27th November 2018)
Any thoughts on horses having a prep run Vs not having a prep run?
Is there any trends that suggest either is a major positive/negative?
I'm thinking Invitation Only is potentially overpriced, but have it in the back of my head that not having a prep run is a negative for this race.
7 out of the last 12 winners had a prep run including the last 5.
The older I get the better I was.
hezz (27th November 2018)
hezz (27th November 2018)
Looks like it’s pissing down at Newbury all day.
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Nice.
Anyone give Otago Trial a chance?
I'm not entirely sure why Alan King is so afraid of soft ground for Dingo Dollar, given he won his novice handicap chase on soft at Newbury by 15 lengths last season. He fell once at Exeter but that was officially good-soft. I suppose I would say that though, given I will down the local food bank, if a) he is scratched b) he doesn't win.
Last edited by Marb; 27th November 2018 at 7:29 PM.
This is a very tough race for second season chasers that have not had a prep.
They go hard all the way so jumping, fitness and experience of big fields are all important.
Jim C though he had Lord Windermere fit the year he ran but could not keep up.
And...re-Dingo Dollar, its not as if the ground is likely to be good or good-soft for The Welsh National on December 27th is it.
Last edited by Marb; 27th November 2018 at 7:28 PM.
Impossible to rule out (regardless of how laughable Euro finds the idea)
Venetia Williams can have them ready after missing a whole season - she has form with this type - and he was progressive before his absence.
It isn't impossible that he could have improved naturally through his layoff.
I'd want 50/1 though!
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Beaten Bristol De Mai and Definitely Red, giving DR weight. Followed that up with a 2nd to BDM round Haydock before beating some other smart horses not too long after. Admittedly not ran in nearly 2 years, just seeing how feasible it is the horse could come back after that long off, or would it just be out for a run out.
Saw it was bottom of the betting with 365 and can't remember him being a bad horse.
A few stats from another site looking at last 12 running's
11/12 Aged 6-8
6/12 LTO winners
7/12 Ran within 55 days
7/12 Top 3 betting
4/12 Winning favourites
9/12 Ran at Newbury
8/12 Won at Newbury
11/12 Minimum 3 runs at 3m or beyond
11/12 Minimum 4 chase runs
9/12 Rated 150 or above
7/12 One run or more current season.
Lowest winning rating 145 (State of play)
Highest rating 174 (The Tank)
Only Denman has carried more than 11-06 to victory in those 12 runnings.
Bobs Worth / Many Clouds both carried 11-06 as 7 yr olds.
Native River carried 11-01 back in 2016 as a 6 yr old.
Me too but the big novices race at Aintree and the Francome at this meeting are also solid races. Sometimes a good novice will end up missing the big two festival races or will fail to finish but that can be a blessing in disguise.
The last three winners of the Francome were (most recent first):
Elegant Escape (but Black Corton emerges better at the weights)
Thistlecrack (runner-up Bigbadjohn won the Reynoldstown two outings later)
Native River (beat UTPT)
A cracking renewal in prospect on Saturday if half this lot turn up:
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...97/at-a-glance
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 27th November 2018 at 9:28 PM.
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Last edited by Maruco; 28th November 2018 at 9:14 AM.
Good news for Marble...
Dingo Dollar is the headline tip in the Weekender. Paul Kealy seems to really fancy it but Alan King is more circumspect about tipping it although in my opinion he does have a record when it comes to putting readers of his column away.
As an aside, I really don't see the point of allowing trainers a newspaper column if they aren't going to be 100% straight with what they say.
Anthony Honeyball (stable tour feature) says Ms Parfois has been trained for the race but might miss it depending on the ground.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 28th November 2018 at 11:45 AM.
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