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Thread: The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Newbury Sat Dec 1st

  1. #81
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Who else would be fav though? I guess you could put Ms Parfois in that position, she's a very sold jumper and the 4 miler could have been a good race. Kemboy? He's a terrible price - this time 11 years ago Denman off the same mark was 5/1. Kemboy is no Denman - he doesn't even jump that well. No other candidates imo.
    Agree with this - EE is an awful price now too but is the best horse in the race
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Off the top of my head, Total Recall, Native River, Smad Place, Many Clouds, Denman, Bobsworth, Strong Flow, State Of Play and Trabolgan all won from near or at the head of the market. Sort of surprising, considering how competitive a race it is.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    You go back to Carruthers year and the RSA from the previous March was probably the worst ever.
    I think it's fair to say Carruthers is atypical of a Hennessy winner.

    However, he was only 13/2 for his RSA and had gone up to 156 for winning the Reynoldstown the time before (beat the Nicholls/Walsh 5/4f hands down) so to get into the Hennessy off 146 two years later following two moderate seasons was getting in lightly.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  4. #84
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    Black Corton looks overpriced to me at 20/1


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    Any thoughts on horses having a prep run Vs not having a prep run?

    Is there any trends that suggest either is a major positive/negative?

    I'm thinking Invitation Only is potentially overpriced, but have it in the back of my head that not having a prep run is a negative for this race.

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    7 out of the last 12 winners had a prep run including the last 5.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    hezz (27th November 2018)

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hezz View Post
    Any thoughts on horses having a prep run Vs not having a prep run?

    Is there any trends that suggest either is a major positive/negative?
    My thought is that Alan King is a ****. I was all over Smad Place the year he didn't have a prep and finished like a drunken sailor. And I ignored him the following year suffice to say.

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    Senior Member Kauto Abu's Avatar
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    Looks like it’s pissing down at Newbury all day.


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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Nice.

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    Anyone give Otago Trial a chance?

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    I'm not entirely sure why Alan King is so afraid of soft ground for Dingo Dollar, given he won his novice handicap chase on soft at Newbury by 15 lengths last season. He fell once at Exeter but that was officially good-soft. I suppose I would say that though, given I will down the local food bank, if a) he is scratched b) he doesn't win.
    Last edited by Marb; 27th November 2018 at 7:29 PM.

  16. #93
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    This is a very tough race for second season chasers that have not had a prep.
    They go hard all the way so jumping, fitness and experience of big fields are all important.
    Jim C though he had Lord Windermere fit the year he ran but could not keep up.

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    And...re-Dingo Dollar, its not as if the ground is likely to be good or good-soft for The Welsh National on December 27th is it.
    Last edited by Marb; 27th November 2018 at 7:28 PM.

  18. #95
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Anyone give Otago Trial a chance?
    Impossible to rule out (regardless of how laughable Euro finds the idea)

    Venetia Williams can have them ready after missing a whole season - she has form with this type - and he was progressive before his absence.

    It isn't impossible that he could have improved naturally through his layoff.

    I'd want 50/1 though!
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  19. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Impossible to rule out (regardless of how laughable Euro finds the idea)

    Venetia Williams can have them ready after missing a whole season - she has form with this type - and he was progressive before his absence.

    It isn't impossible that he could have improved naturally through his layoff.

    I'd want 50/1 though!
    Beaten Bristol De Mai and Definitely Red, giving DR weight. Followed that up with a 2nd to BDM round Haydock before beating some other smart horses not too long after. Admittedly not ran in nearly 2 years, just seeing how feasible it is the horse could come back after that long off, or would it just be out for a run out.

    Saw it was bottom of the betting with 365 and can't remember him being a bad horse.

  20. #97
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    A few stats from another site looking at last 12 running's

    11/12 Aged 6-8
    6/12 LTO winners
    7/12 Ran within 55 days
    7/12 Top 3 betting
    4/12 Winning favourites
    9/12 Ran at Newbury
    8/12 Won at Newbury
    11/12 Minimum 3 runs at 3m or beyond
    11/12 Minimum 4 chase runs
    9/12 Rated 150 or above
    7/12 One run or more current season.

    Lowest winning rating 145 (State of play)

    Highest rating 174 (The Tank)

    Only Denman has carried more than 11-06 to victory in those 12 runnings.

    Bobs Worth / Many Clouds both carried 11-06 as 7 yr olds.

    Native River carried 11-01 back in 2016 as a 6 yr old.

  21. #98
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    The RSA is where I always want to start off for this race
    Me too but the big novices race at Aintree and the Francome at this meeting are also solid races. Sometimes a good novice will end up missing the big two festival races or will fail to finish but that can be a blessing in disguise.

    The last three winners of the Francome were (most recent first):

    Elegant Escape (but Black Corton emerges better at the weights)
    Thistlecrack (runner-up Bigbadjohn won the Reynoldstown two outings later)
    Native River (beat UTPT)

    A cracking renewal in prospect on Saturday if half this lot turn up:

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...97/at-a-glance
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 27th November 2018 at 9:28 PM.
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  22. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Anyone give Otago Trial a chance?
    Two reasons I wouldn't be backing him. Firstly he has an entry in the Rehearsal Chase, and either are likely to be preps for the Welsh National. I'd be tempted to back him for that and suspect Venetia has it marked down as his Gold Cup.
    Last edited by Maruco; 28th November 2018 at 9:14 AM.

  23. #100
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Good news for Marble...

    Dingo Dollar is the headline tip in the Weekender. Paul Kealy seems to really fancy it but Alan King is more circumspect about tipping it although in my opinion he does have a record when it comes to putting readers of his column away.

    As an aside, I really don't see the point of allowing trainers a newspaper column if they aren't going to be 100% straight with what they say.

    Anthony Honeyball (stable tour feature) says Ms Parfois has been trained for the race but might miss it depending on the ground.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 28th November 2018 at 11:45 AM.
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