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Thread: The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Newbury Sat Dec 1st

  1. #61
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    Even if they were exactly the same odds to win the race, I'd still take 13/8!
    Last edited by Marb; 26th November 2018 at 10:06 PM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Even if they were exactly the same odds to win the race, I'd still take 13/8!
    You'd be daft not to.
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    That said, he is a danger to all, The Young Master. I could see him getting placed.

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    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Would wonder why Elegant Escape didn't just have his prep over hurdles
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    If the rain comes Ms Parfois has to run a race here off 146. Backed her at 16s.

    This is not a strong renewal.
    Last edited by Ivantheterrible; 27th November 2018 at 12:01 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    The Young Master, on a going day, is one horse I would fear. Great to see a class horse come back like he has. But I would still take 13/8 in a matchbet that Dingo finishes in front of him..
    Are you looking to get even after the last matchbet that i won.

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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I am hoping isleofhopeanddreams turns up..might not be WPM number 1 in the betting but could be number 1 home
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    One of the things I had to double-check yesterday was the form of elegant Escape and Thomas Patrick, both disputing favouritism.

    They might be the key to the race, as the market suggests, but they might also be very false favourites. The handicapper left both alone for their race the other week so EE's penalty could well make life very difficult for him, especially if the handicapper wasn't that impressed by Thomas Patrick (since he left him alone). The bare form suggests the handicapper was right so there's a clear difference of opinion between him and the bookies and general public, or are the bookies just manufacturing false favourites to sucker in the mugs?
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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Who else would be fav though? I guess you could put Ms Parfois in that position, she's a very sold jumper and the 4 miler could have been a good race. Kemboy? He's a terrible price - this time 11 years ago Denman off the same mark was 5/1. Kemboy is no Denman - he doesn't even jump that well. No other candidates imo.

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    A horse's rating is only important when compared to the ratings of other horses. Kemboy's OR is 157 and he'll run off that if Don Poli and Al Boum Photo come out on Thursday. Last year Whisper near as damn it won off 161. Most of last season's novices have a guesstimate for a rating which is why it's so difficult to decide which is well in and which isn't. At least Kemboy's rating was earned in a handicap.
    His jumping has certainly been an issue, ending his chances in the JLT and Irish National, but every time Paul T has ridden him any mistakes haven't lost much or any ground. If he rides him on Saturday I think you can conclude that he's the stable pick. If he doesn't it will make a big difference.
    Will he win? Life isn't usually that kind but with a clear round you'd like to think that he's at least a player. Safe home is all I really want.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Senior Member Kauto Abu's Avatar
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    Would this be the highest profile race the Supreme Club have had a runner in Archie?


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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    One of the things I had to double-check yesterday was the form of elegant Escape and Thomas Patrick, both disputing favouritism.

    They might be the key to the race, as the market suggests, but they might also be very false favourites. The handicapper left both alone for their race the other week so EE's penalty could well make life very difficult for him, especially if the handicapper wasn't that impressed by Thomas Patrick (since he left him alone). The bare form suggests the handicapper was right so there's a clear difference of opinion between him and the bookies and general public, or are the bookies just manufacturing false favourites to sucker in the mugs?
    Probably a hard race for the handicapper to weigh-up with any great confidence, given Terrefort didn’t run his race, and he possibly took the view that the 4lb penalty was going to be enough for EE.

    Dunno that the market-leaders can be considered ‘false’. It’s 6/1 the field, there’s barely a point in it between the first four in the betting, and it’s ultra-competitive. Something has to be fave, and understandable that the books would be cautious about those having both a run under their belts, and the race as their confirmed target. I can’t see what else you make favourite, other than those already at the head of the market, tbh.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 27th November 2018 at 12:05 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kauto Abu View Post
    Would this be the highest profile race the Supreme Club have had a runner in Archie?


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    Probably in the UK. In financial terms it would be dwarfed by the Irish National.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Who else would be fav though? I guess you could put Ms Parfois in that position, she's a very sold jumper and the 4 miler could have been a good race. Kemboy? He's a terrible price - this time 11 years ago Denman off the same mark was 5/1. Kemboy is no Denman - he doesn't even jump that well. No other candidates imo.
    This isn't a rhetorical question, but what price were EE and TP before their race? (I genuinely have no idea as I wasn't following the market.) I'm guessing about 10/1-12/1, so if the handicapper is saying they haven't done anything other than run to their mark they've effectively almost halved in price for the sake of showing they're fit and well. It probably should be 10/1 the field at this stage and I reckon if the bookies offered those prices the market itself would tell a truer story as real money would come in if they were genuinely likely winners.

    Same with Kemboy. His reappearance win didn't amount to as much as his best form of last season. All it showed was that he is fit and well.

    I would be very surprised if there was serious money about for anything. I understand Al Boum Photo was Timeform's long-range ante-post tip, which would explain his price.

    The stat about 6-8 year-olds' good record is logical. Most of them would be second-season chasers who would be expected to improve some 10lbs on their novice season. It covers the market leaders but the prices pretty much already have that improvement as a given. A lot of the others in the same age group are under the radar.

    But every now and again we get a Carruthers type: a solid, established handicapper whose form has struggled to keep up with the young improvers so the handicapper over-relents and he ends up getting in off a winnable mark. The Young Master is certainly in that category, getting to race off 139 having won the 2016 Whitbread off 148 and who has looked on good terms with himself after a couple of disappointing seasons.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Are you looking to get even after the last matchbet that i won.
    Haha, I don't take shrewdies like you on unless I am very confident. Good luck with The Young Master, he is good horse on his day and very interesting to see him in there with a light weight.
    Last edited by Marb; 27th November 2018 at 12:33 PM.

  17. #76
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    TP was 20/1 when betting first opened on the race, and I expect EE was probably around the same price. Both probably shortened to a degree before they ran at Sandown, but can’t get to historical Oddschecker data atm.

    10/1 the field is probably right, but rarely - if ever - happens in a race like the Hennessy these days.....if it ever did at all. The winner often goes off very short.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 27th November 2018 at 12:38 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post

    But every now and again we get a Carruthers type: a solid, established handicapper whose form has struggled to keep up with the young improvers so the handicapper over-relents and he ends up getting in off a winnable mark. The Young Master is certainly in that category, getting to race off 139 having won the 2016 Whitbread off 148 and who has looked on good terms with himself after a couple of disappointing seasons.
    You go back to Carruthers year and the RSA from the previous March was probably the worst ever. The RSA is where I always want to start off for this race and the position of PP in the ante-post market suggests the last one was very good and Elegant Escape, whilst outclassed by the winner,stayed on well and wasn't that far behind Monalee. Kemboy's run in the JLT doesn't read anywhere near as well as the Tizzard horse.

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    EE opened at 12/1 with skybet on 31st August

  21. #79
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    But every now and again we get a Carruthers type: a solid, established handicapper whose form has struggled to keep up with the young improvers so the handicapper over-relents and he ends up getting in off a winnable mark. The Young Master is certainly in that category, getting to race off 139 having won the 2016 Whitbread off 148 and who has looked on good terms with himself after a couple of disappointing seasons.
    GH's remark about well-backed winners had me checking the records. I was surprised to see that Carruthers was only eight. I was sure he was an older horse. Looking back to my preview for the race I had him chucked in on his older form but didn't back him:


    Newbury 3.10
    (Norm 182)
    Aiteen Thirtythree 181 ? +?
    Muirhead 181 ?
    Wymott 181 ?
    Fair Along 181 ?
    Great Endeavour 178 p t
    Blazing Bailey 177
    Balthazar King 176 p
    Neptune Collonges 175 ?
    Tullamore Dew 175
    Billie Magern 173
    Carruthers 172 (186 e s)
    Qhilimar 171 p
    Wayward Prince 170
    The Giant Bolster 170 o ++?
    Sarando 169
    Beshabar 168 +?
    Planet Of Sound - ((180))
    Michel Le Bon - ((170++))
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  22. #80
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    The RSA is where I always want to start off for this race and the position of PP in the ante-post market suggests the last one was very good and Elegant Escape, whilst outclassed by the winner,stayed on well and wasn't that far behind Monalee.
    That was a top race but EE still emerges as a mid-150s horse.

    What price would you have Ballyoptic for this Satruday's race off 153? (That would allow him 2lbs for 1.5 lengths defeat.)
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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