The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Newbury Sat Dec 1st

[archie]

Looks to me like quite a few of the top weights might pull out at the confirmation stage on Tuesday.

Incidentally, I think that the RP have got the card wrong in the way that they've applied penalties. As I understand it, penalties aren't applied until declaration time and only then when the weights have been raised to make top weight 11-12. If the top rated declaration is Un Temps Pour Tout, original weights will go up 7lb. Kemboy's actual OR is 157 not 161 as shown in the RP (by including the 4lb penalty) so his weight will go up to 11-11 before the penalty is applied. No horse will carry more than 11-12 so he will, in effect, only get a 1lb penalty.

[Marb]

Storm Diana due to hit on Wednesday, could influence proceedings...

[Desert Orchid]

If this forecast is right we'll see only light showers through the week:

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/16d...=51.4&lon=-1.3

[Marb]

Hope so, cheers for that, DO.

[Desert Orchid]

Looks like Regal Encore, Step Back and Vyta Du Roc skip this race.

[archie]

23 left in at the 5 day stage.
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...43/at-a-glance

[Kauto Abu]

Hoping the rain comes as I’m on Ms Parfois at 16s and there’s a chance she’ll head for Aintree Saturday week if it’s good ground.

Forecast looks promising.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/...ate=2018-11-29


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Desert Orchid]

Looks to me like quite a few of the top weights might pull out at the confirmation stage on Tuesday.

Incidentally, I think that the RP have got the card wrong in the way that they've applied penalties. As I understand it, penalties aren't applied until declaration time and only then when the weights have been raised to make top weight 11-12. If the top rated declaration is Un Temps Pour Tout, original weights will go up 7lb. Kemboy's actual OR is 157 not 161 as shown in the RP (by including the 4lb penalty) so his weight will go up to 11-11 before the penalty is applied. No horse will carry more than 11-12 so he will, in effect, only get a 1lb penalty.

Correct, archie, but it's a 3lb penalty rather than the 4lbs with Don Poli there.

Anyway, I've done my first full trawl and come up with these figures. I haven't yet bracketed off last season's form and I'll edit this again by Saturday. There are no jockeys as only two are so far engaged (Hutch for Dingo Dollar and Sam W-C for The Young Master).

No.	Form	Horse	Stats	Days	Age	Weight	Trainer	OR	TS	MON (179++)	Notes	RPR
38	380-62	Flying Angel		8	7	10-3	Nigel Twiston-Davies	142	153	187	p	181
3	/3P23/	Don Poli	bf	657	9	11-7	Gordon Elliott	160	-	184	?	-
34	11222-	Ms Parfois	C	232	7	10-7	Anthony Honeyball	146	144	182	p	172
28	1U58-3	Go Conquer	bf	28	9	10-8	Nigel Twiston-Davies	147	148	181	+ e y	176
35	PP222-	Isleofhopendreams		217	11	10-5	W P Mullins	144	146	181	p s	173
10	11FPP-	Total Recall	CD	220	9	11-3	W P Mullins	156	155	180	?	171
17	13P3U-	Invitation Only		221	7	10-13	W P Mullins	152	123	179	? p	174
27	/1P4P-	Beware The Bear	C	224	8	10-9	Nicky Henderson	148	124	179	p	172
8	1154-2	Black Corton	bf	28	7	11-4	Paul Nicholls	157	134	178	+p	170
16	/1P21/	Otago Trail		665	10	10-13	Venetia Williams	152	-	178	+p	-
26	233P-1	Sizing Tennessee	D	57	10	10-9	Colin Tizzard	148	151	177		172
12	1/P29-	American		260	8	11-1	Harry Fry	154	114	176	p	169
41	6U8-11	The Young Master	D	15	9	10-0 4ex	Neil Mulholland	139	147	176	+ [188]	174
4	F2F1O-	Al Boum Photo		221	6	11-6	W P Mullins	159	125	175	? p +?	171
18	11182-	Monbeg Notorious	D	221	7	10-12	Gordon Elliott	151	146	175	p	171
2	4F11-1	Kemboy		16	6	11-8 4ex	W P Mullins	161	149	173	+p	169
11	2133-1	Elegant Escape	C	20	6	11-2 4ex	Colin Tizzard	155	135	173		172
39	56P-3P	West Approach	C	14	8	10-3	Colin Tizzard	142	143	173	{182o Hd §?}	173
13	2BU14-	Rathvinden	D	221	10	11-1	W P Mullins	154	105	172		172
23	F112-4	Dingo Dollar	C D	23	6	10-9	Alan King	148	121	172	? p 168 p Hd	169
25	1411-2	Thomas Patrick	CD	20	6	10-9	Tom Lacey	148	143	172	? p +?	175
33	2148-1	Up For Review		202	9	10-7	W P Mullins	146	126	172	? p	169
37	/1P31-	Allysson Monterg		220	8	10-5	Richard Hobson	144	139	171	+p	170

I'm leaving the likes of Ms Parfois until the weekend for a bet as I don't think they'll shorten up but I've nibbled at Flying Angel and The Young Master (who is really only penalised 1lb because Sam W-C didn't claim last week).

[Marb]

I read a press report that the sponsors, Ladbrokes, are going non runner no bet from today. This was from an Australian link on the web, (which I can't recall off the top of my head.) I can't see this clarified on oddschecker though? Hopefully they are offering this to everyone, not just Australian or internet punters.

[Desert Orchid]

By the way, Marble, I stand by what I said about Dingo Dollar and the Ayr form. However, his recent pipe-opener over hurdles suggests he has improved over the summer and if he can translate that improvement back over fences he could have decent place prospects so keep your hopes up! However, his current price does nothing for me. If it's stable money behind his [for me] very short price, that could be telling.

[archie]

From thestatsdontlie.com

Trends

Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8
Price – 4 of the last 12 favourites have won, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 6 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Ladbrokes Trophy , 7/12 winners ran within the last 55 days
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newbury, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Newbury
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 24 furlongs or further, 9/12 had at least 1 previous wins over 24 furlongs or further
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 9/12 winners were rated 150 or higher
Graded Wins – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 7/12 winners had at least 1 run that season, 3/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

[Diamond Geezer]

I read a press report that the sponsors, Ladbrokes, are going non runner no bet from today. .

Says so on Ladbrokes site

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/b...phy/227757334/

[Desert Orchid]

From thestatsdontlie.com

Trends

Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8
Price – 4 of the last 12 favourites have won, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 6 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Ladbrokes Trophy , 7/12 winners ran within the last 55 days
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newbury, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Newbury
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 24 furlongs or further, 9/12 had at least 1 previous wins over 24 furlongs or further
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 9/12 winners were rated 150 or higher
Graded Wins – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 7/12 winners had at least 1 run that season, 3/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

12 of the last 12 winners were well handicapped
15 of the last 15 winners were well handicapped
20 of the last 20 winners were well handicapped


The only stats you need to know

Seriously, though, I'd suggest of the above only these can be taken seriously:

Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 24 furlongs or further, 9/12 had at least 1 previous wins over 24 furlongs or further
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins

[Marb]

I'm happy with those stats, Thanks Archie. Dingo ticks a lot of boxes then. He has every right to be the price he is btw. According to Alan King, the only real thing to be concerned about is too much rain.

[archie]

Need to wait on the weather and that depends on which site you use. Most seem to think that most of the rain will be done by declaration time on Thursday.
If the forecast going is soft, Don Poli will likely run and establish the handicap. Good to soft probably not.

I wouldn't want Ms Parfois or Thomas Patrick unless it was properly soft and, disregarding Kemboy, I'm struggling to see why Black Corton is as long as he is.

[Outsider]

I did The young master today.i think 16/1 is a nice price and hes nicely hcapped.his new mark is 142.

[Marb]

The Young Master, on a going day, is one horse I would fear. Great to see a class horse come back like he has. But I would still take 13/8 in a matchbet that Dingo finishes in front of him..

[Desert Orchid]

How did you arrive at 13/8?

[tiggers1972]

Ive done The Young Master, think it's quite a weak renewal.

[Marb]

Dingo Dollar is approximately 25-30 percent shorter in price than The Young Master based on all odds quoted, (not top price with an individual firm, but odds offered by every major bookmaker combined). In effectively a two runner match-bet race, I would take 13/8 or above, if I was that way inclined.