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Thread: The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Newbury Sat Dec 1st

  1. #161
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    Well done Sizing followers.good run from Dingo.my american was a complete joke.ground against the young master.
    Winner was impressive.

  2. #162
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    I've read a few posts today but haven't really got the time to pass comment so apologies. This is the first race I've really cast my eye over in a while and at the prices I'd have to say Sizing Tennessee is the stand out he's now around 16's generally after all the withdrawals.
    Back with a bang and a half, Danny. Brilliant winner. Really chuffed for you!

    Great run for Marble from Dingo in third too.

    It was, as I'd anticipated, a proper race. No hiding places. No messing about. No let up on the pace.

    It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does. Take out the winner and we'd be raving about Elegant Escape.

    I think someone else gave ST a good mensh earlier in the thread so well done too to whoever that was / they were.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 1st December 2018 at 4:19 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Danny (1st December 2018)

  4. #163
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    Cheers Des funnily enough this is a race I've always struggled with so it means a bit more to find the winner.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  5. #164
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    Cheers DO, well done Danny great to see you posting again.

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    Danny (1st December 2018)

  7. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    Liked the run under top weight today over hurdles of ​Dingo Dollar

    Taken the 25-1 with the Sponsors
    Good run to finish 3rd
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  8. #166
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I knew someone else had mentioned him. That's a great early shout, PB.
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    PlaceBacker (2nd December 2018)

  10. #167
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    Horrible day. I had Thomas Patrick in a trixie with BDM from last week both at 8s
    I had Elegant Escape in a trixie at 6s with 'harry from yesterday and I had Ms Parfois at 12s.
    Beaten by a horse who couldn't jump last year.
    I tell you what though, lesson learned so that's a positive to take out.
    I'm not backing horses from no mark trainers in big races again (Thomas Patrick) and I will strictly avoid ones having their first run of the season from more Championship level handlers (Ms Parfois)

  11. #168
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    Horrible day for me too. Not even a place with the bizarre performance of American pretty much summing it up.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  12. #169
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I really do wonder what the handicapper will do with this race. He didn't raise Elegant Escape for winning at Sandown and with Thomas Patrick out of it from the home turn, the fact that the winner was a seemingly exposed 10yo and so many seemingly not getting home in the ground, he might only raise the winner about 7lbs, in which case he'd be one to have onside in the National. I fear it will more likely be double that, though.

    A couple of years ago Native River got into the Welsh National without a penalty. Does anyone know if ST will do likewise?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  13. #170
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    The ground really turned very soft by lunchtime, was not nice ground at all. Nothing was coming from behind at all and all finishing very tired.

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    Desert Orchid (1st December 2018)

  15. #171
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I really do wonder what the handicapper will do with this race. He didn't raise Elegant Escape for winning at Sandown and with Thomas Patrick out of it from the home turn, the fact that the winner was a seemingly exposed 10yo and so many seemingly not getting home in the ground, he might only raise the winner about 7lbs, in which case he'd be one to have onside in the National. I fear it will more likely be double that, though.
    Looks like he's found an argument for taking the middle ground. 11lbs is the rise. Elegant Escape is up 4lbs.

    Don't be surprised if Chapman starts whingeing at the weekend, "Raised 4lbs for being beaten 10 lengths?! What is the handicapper playing at?!" or words to that effect...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Danny (5th December 2018)

  17. #172
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    Great shout, Danny - good to see you back.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Danny (5th December 2018)

  19. #173
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Some interesting figures emerging for me...

    Watching the races I was sure both the Hennessy and the closing Jim Joel were very fast-run and in such situations it's always useful to spend some time seeing what the times say.

    If we assume the short race was true-run (the form book says Dicosimo "led at str pace") and Lady Buttons's raw time matches her new OR (149), then Sizing Tennessee has run a time rating of 166. Small wonder, then, that Tizzard was reported later as saying, "If entries were tomorrow I'd put him in the Gold Cup." That rating would put him not far off Native River although the handicapper has gone conservatively with 159. He has Elegant Escape running to his penalised mark of 155, effectively raising him 4lbs. Dingo Dollar is left alone on 148.

    Sizing Tennessee was 35lbs faster than Santini.

    The original comparison, however, may be tenuous. Lady Buttons was raised 9lbs but the runner-up, Shear Rock, was only raised one pound for being beaten just over two lengths. The winner hacked up obviously but times don't allow for ease of victory so perhaps any calculation is predicated ona false premise and perhaps Lady Buttons's time rating should be dropped about 7lbs, which would knock on to both Sizing Tennessee and Santini.

    I'll try and get a look at the Fighting Fifth later. The Hoops are on duty...
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    Danny (5th December 2018)

  21. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Some interesting figures emerging for me...


    Sizing Tennessee was 35lbs faster than Santini.
    I'm trying to think what I expected this figure to be.

  22. #175
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    It's meaningless in the context because it doesn't show up Santini's true ability. His race was nowhere near as strongly run.

    What I'll try and do is time both races from the starting point in Santini's race. The time for the final mile might be more informative.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  23. #176
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    Perpetual made a cameo appearance on ITV with a 3/4 empty pint of Guinness when camera focused on winning connections after the race.
    Glad to see you still enjoy your racing Ben !
    Keep the Festival seat for me if you have one extra again !

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