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Thread: The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Newbury Sat Dec 1st

  1. #21
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    The older I get the better I was.

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  3. #22
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    Kemboy will pick up a 4lb penalty if he wins tomorrow. Nice words in this article:
    https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...-points/154893
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Tom Lacey says Thomas Patrick will only run if ground Soft.

    *starts rain-dancing*
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Not quite, Marble.

    £10 ew at 50/1, (1/4-odds) costs £20, returns £135 = 5.75/1

    You'll maybe get 12/1 place-only on the day.
    Good point, DO. While I think he could place, ultimately I am pissing in the wind with Regal Encore, as he can't win. Hence I am increasingly considering something else in the shape of Dingo Dollar for an anti post bet, (I reckon he could start shorter on the day). He is progressing nicely, has some good course-winning form from 2M7F last December. Recently he had a good spin over hurdles where he finished fourth. He is 25/1 top price with Boylesports, as low as 14/1 with other firms. If the winner doesn't come from the two market leaders (both look to have good chances) I could see Dingo Dollar in the shake up.
    Last edited by Marb; 15th November 2018 at 4:48 AM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Good point, DO. While I think he could place, ultimately I am pissing in the wind with Regal Encore, as he can't win.
    It's the kind of race that could end up cutting up in running depending on the ground and pace. I would envisage RE, if it ran, being ridden for a place as it is simply not well enough handicapped to win a Hennessy. A £20-£50k Saturday handicap maybe, but not a Hennessy. I don't think 50/1 is generous.

    However, the place-only market is a route I often consider if I like the look of a rank outsider I genuinely don't think can win but might have strongs chances of placing. The mental approach (mental indeed, I hear you say ) I take is that if I'm backing, say, a 50/1 shot place only at 12/1 in the belief it cannot win, I'm getting the full 12/1 then I can put the full stake on. In my head I convince myself I'm then getting double the full price but not losing out on the wasted win portion.

    EG

    £10 ew at 50/1 cost £20, returns £135
    £20 at 12/1 place only costs £20 returns £260.

    To get the latter return from an ew bet would require pretty much double the stake or double the win odds (and 8x the place-only odds). (£10 ew at 100/1 returns £260)

    The place-only market can be a useful approach a) when the odds are right, and b) when you don't really think the horse can do better than a place.

    I've been known to back the same horse in both markets.
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    Cheers. Can you add anything further to my assessment of Dingo Dollar? He is the one I want be backing in the next week or two.

  8. #27
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    ... I am increasingly considering something else in the shape of Dingo Dollar for an anti post bet, (I reckon he could start shorter on the day). He is progressing nicely, has some good course-winning form from 2M7F last December. Recently he had a good spin over hurdles where he finished fourth. He is 25/1 top price with Boylesports, as low as 14/1 with other firms. If the winner doesn't come from the two market leaders (both look to have good chances) I could see Dingo Dollar in the shake up.
    My honest assessment without delving too much into the form at this stage as that a horse that couldn't win a novice hcap chase at Ayr off 143 is not going to worry anything with serious Hennessy aspirations, Marble. You're really looking for a Gold Cup horse in the Hennessy. If you can see DD running in the Gold Cup then by all means wire in. I can see him contesting the odd good Saturday handicap through the season but he doesn't strike me as a Festival type, which is what you need. Sorry, but you did ask
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    He was giving away nearly a stone that day (to the winner) at Ayr, DO. Wasn't a bad run at all. The winner (from memory) was bang in form and on a four timer. Dingo Dollar is still only six years old and open to plenty more progression.

  10. #29
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    He was giving away nearly a stone that day (to the winner) at Ayr, DO. Wasn't a bad run at all.
    True but irrelevant in the context of a Hennessy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    The winner (from memory) was bang in form and on a four timer.
    ... by which time the handicapper was catching up on him.

    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Dingo Dollar is still only six years old and open to plenty more progression.
    ... along with the seven other 6yos in the race, not to mention eight second-season 7yos, who are just as open to improvement.

    Having said that, Marble, don't let me put you off. Your opinion is every bit as valid as mine. I'm merely offering you mine, as requested.

    Who knows I might end up backing DD on the day!
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 15th November 2018 at 12:31 PM.
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    I doubt any of these, including the eventual winner, will place in The Gold Cup this season. Very unlikely I would have thought. Also, you suggested that Dingo Dollar can't win this for finishing second off 143 at Ayr, I then said he was giving away 12lbs and will come on bags for the run: You say it's irrelevant !! Underestimate Marble's Dingo Dollar at your peril, I say.
    Last edited by Marb; 15th November 2018 at 8:15 PM.

  12. #31
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    I doubt any of these, including the eventual winner, will place in The Gold Cup this season. Very unlikely I would have thought.
    Native River won this off 155 two years ago and went on to place in the Gold Cup by which time he was rated 168. That's the kind of handicap you need in a modern Hennessy.

    Whisper was edged out last year off 161, trying to give a stone to Total Recall which was making headway into sixth when falling in the Gold Cup.

    Bobs Worth won off 160 and followed up in the Gold Cup when rated 171 next time out, for which he went up to 180.

    I cannot understate the class required to win a modern Hennessy / Ladbrokes. Can I ask you what leads you to believe that a horse that couldn't win off 143 is going to win a Hennessy other than the assumption that it will progress? All the second-season chasers will progress and some of them will have run in or even won Graded races.


    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Also, you suggested that Dingo Dollar can't win this for finishing second off 143 at Ayr, I then said he was giving away 12lbs and will come on bags for the run: You say it's irrelevant !!
    DD won't come on bags for that run. He'll maybe improve for the summer off and the time to develop, but so will nearly all the second-season horses. The weight he gave away to the winner is irrelevant because a) he failed to give the weight away and b) the winner must have been rated 131 wich is basically a Class 3 handicap mark, a £10-20k race level of animal. That for me is entirely irrelevant to a Hennessy. He'd need to pay to get in the door at Newbury.

    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Underestimate Marble's Dingo Dollar at your peril, I say.
    I don't underestimate Dingo Dollar. Even if I over-estimate it I can't see it getting close to winning. A place, maybe, if he makes abnormal progress. The stable won this with Smad Place off 155, for which it went up to 168 and was fancied for the Gold Cup. Class. Dingo Dollar has already gone up 5lbs (to 148) for not winning at Ayr. His Festival target was the National Hunt (4m) chase.

    I wish you all the very best with him. I'm sure you'll get a lovely price about him at Betfair
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  13. #32
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Just checked the stable tour comments. Alan King says he sees DD 'long term' as a Scottish National type. That says it all. NH Chase last season, Scottish National either later this season or next season.

    Might run in the Ladbrokes but can only be part of a long-term plan.

    Unless he's putting us all away.
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Kemboy will pick up a 4lb penalty if he wins tomorrow. Nice words in this article:
    https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...-points/154893
    They must think he still has plenty in hand bearing that in mind
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Fair enough, DO. He has only had five starts over fences; this will be second season chasing. He is 2/5 over fences, which includes the win at Newbury over 2M7F. He really caught my eye as one that could both shorten in the betting and run well on the day, that is not currently on many people's radars. He does need to step up though, your right that this is a major step up in class. The fact Alan King thinks he might need further in time is okay with me. He wants to be prominent in his races. To try and ride on the pace in a Hennessy and have any hope you'd need to stay the trip well anyway.
    Last edited by Marb; 15th November 2018 at 9:36 PM.

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    Willie Mullins speaking on the phone at Ladbrokes Trophy press day: "Kemboy looks the one for me. He has picked up a 4lb penalty but he is fit and well and I think he is improving." Total Recall, Rathvinden and Pairofbrowneyes could also run. Al Boum Photo and Invitation Only ruled out.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    If it runs The Young Master must have a decent chance.Elegant Escape does look to have a outstanding chance but only 6/1.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    If it runs The Young Master must have a decent chance.
    Again, I haven't crunched the numbers but TYM was lobbed in on his best form and for me was going to repel the fallen challengers the other day. He is very well handicapped but there may be one or two even better in.

    I was very glad (even though I didn't back it) RTK won on Saturday. I had it joint top-rated but didn't back it because I wasn't sure if my figure was reliable. It proved it was.

    I haven't done all the form for this race but if my figures are anywhere near correct I'm getting excited about the odds I might get for one of my very highly-rated ones.
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  20. #38
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    Haven't been on for a while but hope you're all well If it's the one I'm thinking of D.O the form has worked out very well indeed off the back of that big figure so looks like it could be as good as it looked. Very exciting but I won't spoil the surprise for you.

    Best of luck with the race lads.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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  22. #39
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Never mind the surprise, Danny, it's the price I don't want spoiled!

    This forum can shift the market
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    Vyta Du Roc at 40s with Skybet looks too big for me.

    I'll have a few darts in this race unlike the BetVictor last week when I was foolishly all in on Kalondra. Proabably going to go with 4, Thomas Patrick is a fancy but a bit too short in the betting at this stage.

    Step Back at 25s.
    Don Poli just because I love the horse
    And Thomas Patrick if it drifts somewhat between now and next week.

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