Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 41 to 51 of 51

Thread: US Mid Terms

  1. #41
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    1,412
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked 339 Times in 189 Posts
    If you can't even concede that Florida is a perennial swing state than I'm not sure why you engage on these threads. This is a forum, not an Ed Krassen tweet where everyone already agrees with the partisan view spouted.

  2. # ADS
    Circuit advertisement
    Join Date
    Always
    Posts
    Many

    To remove these adverts please either login or join if you are not a member.


     

  3. #42
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    776
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 26 Times in 23 Posts
    Snooze, where is the log sawing emoji.

    When`s the last time a governor was a democrat in Florida?
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  4. #43
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    1,412
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked 339 Times in 189 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by brendanr View Post
    Snooze, where is the log sawing emoji.

    When`s the last time a governor was a democrat in Florida?
    If you don't believe me how about Nate Silver?

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...o-to-vote-for/

    "That’s not all that surprising in a perpetual swing state like Florida."

  5. #44
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,321
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 84 Times in 75 Posts
    I'm in two minds about Florida

    I don't think it's a swingy as it was (20 years ago), though would still be vulnerable to a strong candidate on a popular wave in a good cycle. To some extent it's bit like Pennsylvania. Mathematically it's always close, but still tends to give you the same type of result 80% of the time regardless of the efforts made there. I think there's a lot of hardcoded votes there with very little flux. I think it also has one of the best voter suppression regimes in America as well (although Georgia might have usurped their crown on that one!). Florida was the only senate race I think I got wrong, as I felt you needed to be leading by 2% in order to win as a Democrat. Nelson just about had that edge, but ultimately I might have been a percentage point wrong. Also the Governors race clearly showed up the 'Bradley effect' as Gillum was anywhere between 5% and 8% ahead (except for one poll by Trafalgar) but ended up losing to a candidate who appeared to have had a nervous breakdown only 2 or 3 months ago. I think I'll need to extend my allowance to about 3% in future calls on Florida

    Longer term it'll trend Republican with migratory trends and become less swingy, perhaps beginning to behave a little bit like Ohio (unless there's more hurricanes in PR)

    At the moment the closest state in EC is Michigan, yet few people would really regard that as a swing state. On the previous election it was North Carolina. In the Bush era of course it was Ohio. These things are fluid. I tend to think Arizona's day will come before long. Hillary Clinton might have been chasing rainbows there about 10 years to early
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  6. #45
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,321
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 84 Times in 75 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    If you don't believe me how about Nate Silver?
    I meant to check how he got on. Last time I did (about 3 days before the vote) he had Missouri, Indiana, Arizona and Florida going Democrat, so unless he made some late revisions, he's made some bad predictions. In fact, I've got half a feeling he might have had Nevada going Republican too

    Incidentally, since the shadow of voter fraud has found its way into the post-mortem, in a little reported development on Monday, the Chinese granted Ivanka Trump a patent for the manufacturer of voting machines (obviously in China, she would make them in America) but that did amuse me. A voting machine manufactured by the Trumps - I mean, what could go wrong with that? I kind of expect Kelly Anne to announce that she's going out to buy one, although it does beg the question who she intends selling them to? OK, I can see one very obvious candidate who uses electronic voting machines who might them in return for escaping sanctions for buying Russian made S-400 anti aircraft missiles instead of Patriot, but it would be funny if she started selling them to America

    Just checked his final forecast (Nate Silver) and he got four wrong. Ha! Eat my pants Silver
    Last edited by Warbler; 10th November 2018 at 12:27 AM.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  7. #46
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    1,412
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked 339 Times in 189 Posts
    You obviously missed him "tweaking" his model during Tuesday night after it made the Republicans favs. They were matched at 1.3 to win the house on Betfair.

    http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/1...king-his-model
    Last edited by SlimChance; 10th November 2018 at 1:20 AM.

  8. #47
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,321
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 84 Times in 75 Posts
    I wouldn't use 4chan, so I'm not too concerned, but if he's tweaking his models in running as results come in, then that's cheating. I'm not having it. I made my forecasts an hour before any poll closed, and unlike Nate Silver, I didn't have access to anything like the volume of early voting data or voter turnout during the day reporting. It was based instead on polling and my own observations about American national behaviour

    I took you down Silver. Call yourself a guru ha! Well in fairness, I don't think he does call himself a guru (others do) - in fact I might have done so myself once when he got Obama's re-election spot on
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  9. #48
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    1,412
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked 339 Times in 189 Posts
    4chan was the first link I found to the tweet.

    If you are tweaking your model in the middle of an event to get your desired result then put your model in the bin and start again. That applies to any field not just politics and Nate Silver.

  10. #49
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    776
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 26 Times in 23 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    I'm in two minds about Florida
    Mathematically it's always close, but still tends to give you the same type of result 80% of the time regardless of the efforts made there. I think there's a lot of hardcoded votes there with very little flux. I think it also has one of the best voter suppression regimes in America as well (although Georgia might have usurped their crown on that one!).
    Think this might hit the nail on the head. Good old Nate and his crew had nice forecasting templates for each State, where among other info they have a partisan lean. In Florida's case it is 5,4% Republican. Yet their own forecasting model came out for about a 70% chance of a Democrat winning the senate race. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...enate/florida/.

    That thing about hard coded votes could be spot on which might go a way to explain the 80% result regardless of the effort.

    Fact is no Democrat has been gov. in Florida since 1998 when Jeb Bush won the race. At that time for the first time you had a Republican led state legislature and a Republican gov. They enacted all kinds of legislation to make Florida as attractive as possible for wealthy older/retired voters. It accelerated in country migration in big chunks.

    This link from 2015 gives good insight into how the Republicans strategy has worked. https://www.floridatrend.com/article...million-strong

    Lots of other interesting stuff in there. Today one in five people is a senior and net migration is skewed toward old. According to this paper one in four will be a senior by 2040.
    Seniors are traditionally more conservative and in Florida they seem to have some of the more rabid Trump voters especially among women. The Trumpettes et.al.

    In the short/medium term It's going to take a lot of felons (assuming they will vote and vote Democrat) to move the needle in the other direction.
    Who knows, if that sick in the brain maniac Trump has any kind of success with his "immigration policies" external migration (out of country) might slow down as well.

    He already has 5500 military personnel stationed at the Mexican border to squash the invasion from south of the border. To paraphrase the wannabe great emperor "If they throw rocks it's like holding a gun".
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  11. #50
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    1,412
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked 339 Times in 189 Posts
    Great. So we are all agreed that it is factually correct to call Florida a swing state. Let's move on.

  12. #51
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,321
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 84 Times in 75 Posts
    Well its starting to look as if Silver might be getting one back against me as the Arizona recount is swinging in favour of Sinema
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •