Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 51

Thread: US Mid Terms

  1. #21
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    776
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 26 Times in 23 Posts
    One man not in the news these last few weeks is Robert Mueller. Looks like that might be about to change.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  2. # ADS
    Circuit advertisement
    Join Date
    Always
    Posts
    Many

    To remove these adverts please either login or join if you are not a member.


     

  3. #22
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    1,412
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked 339 Times in 189 Posts
    Sessions is gone.

  4. #23
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    1,412
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked 339 Times in 189 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post

    I suspect therefore that he'll remove Jeff Sessions in the near future and replace him with Lindsey Graham as Attorney General as a first step to closing down Robert Mueller. This will open up a vacancy in South Carolina of course but with the balance of the Senate as it is, they could even have the luxury of losing that (not that they will) as they have perfect candidate waiting in the wings, a former state Governor who has just resigned from her job at the UN (lucky coincidence? (probably not - more like a plan).
    Did you see this happening so quickly? I think you've nailed the Nikki Hayley resignation too. It's all too coincidental.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 7th November 2018 at 10:19 PM.

  5. #24
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,321
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 84 Times in 75 Posts
    I thought it had been on the cards for months, and when it didn't happen in August (I thought it might happen before the midterms in order to prevent a new congress introducing a bill to protect Mueller) then I was fairly confident it would happen in the next 10 days.

    If you witnessed Lindsey Grahams theatrical performance at the Kavanagh hearing, and his subsequent advice that Trump can indeed amend the constitution using an executive order, it was pretty obvious who the front runner was (or at least Graham thinks he is). Nikki Haley cleared the path. When she resigned there'd be no guarantee that a special election might tip the balance of the senate. Trump needed to have someone in place ready to fill Graham's shoes who would win the vacant seat. Why did Trump focus so much on the Senate during the campaigns and abandon the House? Well all the commentators said it was because he wanted to associate with winners and didn't care about the House etc The truth is that Trump cares about Trump, and he needs to get Lindsey Graham confirmed by the senate. That way he can close Mueller down. That's why he concentrated so much on the likes of Marsha Blackburn, Martha McSally and Josh Hawley. He's lost Jeff Flake and John McCain now, and although he's inherited Mitt Romney, his position in the Senate is reinforced

    All those Americans who were promising all the brave things they'd do if ……… are about to have their bluff called. What will they do? I rather suspect they'll draw another red line so as to able to justify doing nothing.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  6. #25
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    1,412
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked 339 Times in 189 Posts
    The big problem I see for Democrats is that they drove up the turnout in the midterms by making it about stopping Trump. It appears from today that Trump has been very strategic and some Democrats could become disillusioned when nothing happens for the next two years.

  7. #26
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    13,206
    Thanks
    830
    Thanked 626 Times in 483 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    I don't get the media love in with Beto. O'Rourke spent 59 million and lost! 2020 starts here and for my money he is nowhere in the Democratic race right now.
    True, but he outran his rating on a track that didnít suit.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  8. #27
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    1,412
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked 339 Times in 189 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    True, but he outran his rating on a track that didn’t suit.
    I find it hilarious that he's getting carried out on his shield by the media and his supporters after spending $59 million against an unpopular politician.

  9. #28
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,321
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 84 Times in 75 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SP Only View Post
    You might be surprised both Trump and the Dems certainly aligned on the desire to get started on a massive infrastructure rebuild and they also have similar beliefs on the drug companies and getting prices down. If nothing else Trump knows how to come to the table for the long play and playing nice might be the way forward with an eye on 2020.
    I tend to disagree

    Trump doesn't do long plays. Trump's very much a day-trader, and takes his profit on the closing bell. He's someone who lurches from one crisis to the next without seeing the consequence (firing Comey is a classic example). His attitude is that he'll cross that bridge when he comes to it

    He doesn't manage simultaneous complexity. He doesn't have a coherent policy platform; never has done. All he's got is a few jumbled ideas and opinions, which is why he's enacted so little to date despite having had a stacked congress. If Gary Cohn can remove documents from his desk to prevent him signing them, and Trump isn't even aware they've gone missing (because he's forgotten what he was working on) you've got a lot of your answers as regards how much in control of his alleged programme he is

    I also suspect you're going to be wrong about seeing more bi-partisan progress on some of the issues you've outlined. Trump governs in the interests of Donald Trump, his family, and a certain nefarious economic class. I'm far from convinced it suits Trump to introduce any of the measures you've outlined. If he wanted to, he could easily have begun doing so by now. Trump would prefer to create a fog of conflict instead and blame the Democrats for not being able to get things done. I don't think he possesses an incentive in his world view to do anything differently. His world is defined by getting re-elected and he wants to claim that he could make America a whole lot better if he were allowed to.

    The probability is that the American economy won't be as healthy in November 2020 as it is today. This will allow him to claim that the House Democrats are stymieing him. You're dealing with the American voter here. This is not a very well informed electorate. All they tend to have is a sense of if what they're being told has a hint of reality to it, and can they recognise and relate to elements of it. Trump will say something to effect of when he had the complete of congress (2016 - 18) things were good weren't they? But look at what's happened since. It's slowed down because of the Democrats. The Democrats can of course counter that argument very easily, but here in lies the problem. Once you find yourself having to explain something in politics, that's when you begin losing. If people recognise a grain of truth in the slogan and base messaging, then that's all they need. It sinks in. The explanation never runs as well as the slogan. It's actually quite interesting watching the postings of Trump supporters for example and how they simply parrot the attack lines they're fed by both Donald and Fox News. It's as if they can't think of their own.

    I don't think therefore that Trump is interested in a programme. It would allow the Democrats to emerge with credit too. I think he'll prefer to divide and sow confusion and tribalism, and lets' be honest, there's going to be no shortage of opportunity when Adam Schiff takes the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, or Elijah Cummins the chair of Oversight and Standards.

    I've got some bad news for America looking at the medium term however. In order to lance Trumpism they need to categorically reject it. Merely defeating it won't be enough. It will return. It's why I've been saying for some time that those who keep comparing him with Hitler or Mussolini, are wrong. Trump's best historical fit is Juan Peron. The similarities are actually quite eerie. Even today Argentina's politicians will self-describe as Peronists in an attempt to plug into a support base. Trumpism will outlive Trump, and if the journey that America is on continues, it will eventually find itself in the hands of a much more capable politician than someone who divides his time between Fox News in the morning, a glorification ceremony in the afternoon, a vanity rally in the evening, and the golf course at weekends
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  10. #29
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,321
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 84 Times in 75 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    The big problem I see for Democrats is that they drove up the turnout in the midterms by making it about stopping Trump. It appears from today that Trump has been very strategic and some Democrats could become disillusioned when nothing happens for the next two years.
    That wouldn't be my take out

    They did win the House after all, so they've put something of a road block in place. They've also flipped about 6 governorships too so can begin redistricting

    I think they'd be more disillusioned if they hadn't turned out and if the GOP just trampled over them. That hasn't happened, but then neither has the blue wave (although a big part of that is down to gerrymandering in the House races). When someone does the number work we'll get some indication of how PA, WI and MI would have voted in a Presidential election, although you'd have expect that with a 7% generic gap all three states would go back blue (OH might be interesting too)

    I think what you're seeing is a country that's becoming more and more polarised along cultural, lifestyle, and value systems lines. Long term, it's setting up for partition
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  11. #30
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,321
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 84 Times in 75 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    You can dutch Harris, Warren, Biden and Sanders at 3.8795. That seems a very fair price. The O'Rourke price is ridiculous.
    Difficult to know

    There's possibly five camps from which candidates will come from

    Progressive
    Establishment
    Blue Dog
    Wildcard
    Young gun

    Now if you could pick the leading light from each group you'd be well on your way. But that would be like trying to pick a Yankee (I say that because some of the candidates would have a foot in two camps). If you could pick the camp that you think the winner will emerge from, then you could probably dutch a trio at a good price

    My own guess is that Bernie won't run. He'll be 79 in 2020. He could only run as a one term President. Could he really turn round and convince people to make an eight year investment in him? I think Biden will likely cede the establishment ticket to John Kerry too

    The wildcards like Bloomberg would be the group that becomes difficult to get a handle on. They could catch a wave. Bloomberg also disarms Trump of the billionaire aura too given that he's significantly more wealthy than Trump and an infinitely more successful businessman.

    I think Warren will run, but I doubt she could win. I'd back Trump against her. She'd be an arb

    Harris is the most plausible on your list I'd say, and I think the market has that right. I'd still have concerns about whether she could win as well though. She might be OK answering softball questions from Mika, but I do wonder how she'll stand up when her track record of achievements is scrutinised? (not what positions she's held) but rather what did she actually do in those jobs? Given America's apparent penchant for females with a military background in this recent round of results, I do wonder if Tulsi Gabbard might emerge as an outsider yet? If she represented a big metro area she'd have more chance admittedly, and in truth, the House rarely produces a President on a direct line of ascent. Who was the last one? Grover Cleveland? or was it William McKinlay? I can't imagine its been done more than two or three times. A wildcard outsider is probably an equally likely source
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  12. #31
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    13,206
    Thanks
    830
    Thanked 626 Times in 483 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    I find it hilarious that he's getting carried out on his shield by the media and his supporters after spending $59 million against an unpopular politician.
    You have to factor location into your argument, before dismissing the performance out of hand, I reckon.

    Getting a Democrat into a Texan Senate seat is nigh-on impossible, due to the demographic make-up of the State. Certainly, the hype was a load of baloney, but there was never really any genuine expectation of a win, when you scratched the surface, given Cruz was generally polling a half-dozen points clear beforehand.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  13. #32
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    1,412
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked 339 Times in 189 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    You have to factor location into your argument, before dismissing the performance out of hand, I reckon.

    Getting a Democrat into a Texan Senate seat is nigh-on impossible, due to the demographic make-up of the State. Certainly, the hype was a load of baloney, but there was never really any genuine expectation of a win, when you scratched the surface, given Cruz was generally polling a half-dozen points clear beforehand.
    The media bought into this guy like they did Obama. They pitched him as a David versus Goliath hero and are now calling for a 2020 run. The reality is he spent a **** load more money than Cruz and made no inroads into the rural areas that was always Cruz's path to victory. All that media coverage and all that money spent and he lost. People like that should just go away not be touted as the saviour of the Democratic party.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 8th November 2018 at 12:00 PM.

  14. #33
    Senior Member Grey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Brussels
    Posts
    8,582
    Thanks
    335
    Thanked 390 Times in 259 Posts
    I'm struggling to see how the Democrats will take Florida now short of a big economic downturn. That state has been trending Republican increasingly for a few decades now.
    Florida passed a referendum on polling day to restore voting rights to ex-felons. According to this source there's an incredible 1.5 million such persons in a state with a voting age population of around 15 million:

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/felony...8-11?r=US&IR=T

  15. The Following User Says Thank You to Grey For This Useful Post:

    SlimChance (8th November 2018)

  16. #34
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    776
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 26 Times in 23 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    The media bought into this guy like they did Obama. They pitched him as a David versus Goliath hero and are now calling for a 2020 run. The reality is he spent a **** load more money than Cruz and made no inroads into the rural areas that was always Cruz's path to victory. All that media coverage and all that money spent and he lost. People like that should just go away not be touted as the saviour of the Democratic party.
    Could Beto have won Texas? If you read the article below the conclusion could be such. How refreshing though that even given the recipe to beat Cruz he stayed true to his positions. Surely he must have known that medicare for all, impeaching Trump and abolishing ICE would turn off tons of Texas voters even if they dislike Cruz. On top of that he rejected big money corporate donations from all the usual suspects. And finally I don't know the guy but he strikes me as a decent human being not like the moral turpitude that is Ted Cruz.

    Next up who gives a flying **** about rural. Rural is dying, Trump is the direct result of these convulsions. One last hurrah before the inevitable complete decline of all things rural where politics in America are concerned. Still did not stop Beto from visiting all those counties anyway.

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...lection-222188

    Here is where Beto did the real damage though. The link below describes how Democrats took the last bastion of republican urban power in Texas, namely Tarrant county. The most populous republican held county in Texas that has not voted Democrat since Moses parted the Red Sea.

    https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/...rourke/575020/

    In a nutshell Beto is a trailblazer where Texas is concerned. The guy is only 46 years old and a leading light of the resistance movement. He can play the longer game. He is not going away. The money spent could just be a down payment for the future. Money well spent in my opinion. Texas will go blue eventually, just hard to pin down when exactly eventually is.

    If you want a case study in wanton short term money spend no need to look further than Florida. Rick Scott a Republican ex governor popular in a Republican controlled state. The guy spent the largest amount of all candidates over $66 million. In the end it came down to about 22 thousand more votes than his opponent from a total of 8.15 million votes. That's about $3000 per voter. Yeah he did win, but sold his soul in the process and looking at the felon angle for the next election in Florida. Good luck.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  17. #35
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    1,412
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked 339 Times in 189 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by brendanr View Post
    lly is.

    If you want a case study in wanton short term money spend no need to look further than Florida. Rick Scott a Republican ex governor popular in a Republican controlled state. The guy spent the largest amount of all candidates over $66 million. In the end it came down to about 22 thousand more votes than his opponent from a total of 8.15 million votes. That's about $3000 per voter. Yeah he did win, but sold his soul in the process and looking at the felon angle for the next election in Florida. Good luck.
    I suggest you don't use Rick Scott spending $66 million in a perennial swing state as evidence of anything.

  18. #36
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    8,321
    Thanks
    11
    Thanked 84 Times in 75 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by brendanr View Post
    The guy is only 46 years old and a leading light of the resistance movement.
    I must admit, I wince every time I hear American's self-describing as the resistance

    OK, I get that American's like guns, and invoking the generic name applied to genuine partisans from 1940's occupied Europe might fill them with a warm glow of association and imaginary romanticised valour, but until such time as you start blowing up bridges, derailing troop trains, or assassinating Republican operatives please don't call yourselves a resistant movement. It's a bloody insult to the memory of the real thing, and this is why.

    There is no such thing as a #Resistance in America. The real resistance fighters actually took huge risks, many paying the ultimate price. All this self-styled anti-Trump resistance movement does is share on-line content, aggressively promote hashtags, upvotes/ downvotes, follows/ unfollows, and manufacture meaningless memes. It's got to be the most pathetic resistance movement in history. Hell, they aren't even be prepared to go on strike for a single day to register their protest for fear that they lose some pay, and I've seen other self-identifying resistance supporters expressing the view that they're even to scared to go on a protest march in case their employer finds out.

    Oh for the land of the brave and the home of the free
    Last edited by Warbler; 8th November 2018 at 8:21 PM.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  19. #37
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    776
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 26 Times in 23 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    I suggest you don't use Rick Scott spending $66 million in a perennial swing state as evidence of anything.
    Perennial swing state is debatable. Other than that I'll suggest anything I damn well please.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  20. #38
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    1,412
    Thanks
    218
    Thanked 339 Times in 189 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by brendanr View Post
    Perennial swing state is debatable. Other than that I'll suggest anything I damn well please.
    It's not debatable. Feel free to set your fair on hair over nothing, it fits right in with your politics.

  21. #39
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    776
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 26 Times in 23 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    I must admit, I wince every time I hear American's self-describing as the resistance

    OK, I get that American's like guns, and invoking the generic name applied to genuine partisans from 1940's occupied Europe might fill them with a warm glow of association and imaginary romanticised valour, but until such time as you start blowing up bridges, derailing troop trains, or assassinating Republican operatives please don't call yourselves a resistant movement. It's a bloody insult to the memory of the real thing, and this is why.

    There is no such thing as a #Resistance in America. The real resistance fighters actually took huge risks, many paying the ultimate price. All this self-styled anti-Trump resistance movement does is share on-line content, aggressively promote hashtags, upvotes/ downvotes, follows/ unfollows, and manufacture meaningless memes. It's got to be the most pathetic resistance movement in history. Hell, they aren't even be prepared to go on strike for a single day to register their protest for fear that they lose some pay, and I've seen other self-identifying resistance supporters expressing the view that they're even to scared to go on a protest in march in case their employer finds out.

    Oh for the land of the brave and the home of the free
    Damn Warbler, the history lesson notwithstanding, what a load of crap. So unlike you.

    All I will say is that Democratic values are under siege in like it or not the one country that matters a bit more than others at least in the current historical context.
    Trump is not a democrat as in a man of democratic values (flawed as they may be). He is a nationalist, the words have come from his mouth.
    While nobody is risking their life at the moment let us hope it stays that way.

    I did 6 years in the US military in the 70's. Did a tour of Vietnam (right at the end) and additional time in the far east after that war ended.
    I was young, definitely naive, but my beliefs in democratic values have not wavered much since then, even looking back at that abomination that was the Vietnam War with all the lies, deceit, death and misery.
    I've seen more of man's inhumanity to man than most. It was not democracy's finest moment.

    Even though I am no longer a citizen I'm still rooting for all that is good about America.

    To watch from afar what this ghoul Trump and all his henchmen/women are doing, just pains me to no end.
    Rest assured that if armed resistance was needed it would appear.
    Let us hope it does not come to that and this peaceful resistance comes to a successful conclusion.

    Go Bob Mueller!!

    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE!!!
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  22. #40
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    776
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 26 Times in 23 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    It's not debatable. Feel free to set your fair on hair over nothing, it fits right in with your politics.
    You are a Trumpist so I would not waste my time. I sleep comfortably with my so called politics.
    If I ever set anybody's hair on fire, your's will be top of the list, that is if you have any.
    Last edited by brendanr; 8th November 2018 at 8:49 PM.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •