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Thread: Bet Victor Gold Cup Cheltenham Sat Nov 17th

  1. #141
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Rather Be was absolutely cantering when brought down 4 out.

  2. #142
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Meant to say...


    I got a call yesterday afternoon not long after the big race from my brother (who isn't as cynical as me) asking whether I thought the Benatar - Baron Alco thing was one big put-away by the Moores.

    On reflection, he's probably right. I suspect Benatar was a decoy all along.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  3. #143
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    Rather Be would of pi$$ed this had McGrath negotiated a clear passage...end of

  4. #144
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    If Kings Socks had stood up he wouldn't have been out of the first three. He just made that one mistake, which is all it takes to end your chance. It looked to me like a combination between wanting to chuck Tom Scu off and trying to dive through the fence as the pace was increasing. A novicey mistake to make. I wonder if they will give be him a surprise entry over the smaller obstacles in a handicap hurdle in the near future. That would be worth watching!
    Last edited by Marb; 18th November 2018 at 12:45 PM.

  5. #145
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trefflich View Post
    Rather Be would of pi$$ed this had McGrath negotiated a clear passage...end of
    I was seriously unimpressed with McGrath today on Claimintakinforgan and Verdana Blue. The former, considering he was reported to have jumped well last time, hardly met a fence right in the first mile and I'm not convinced he was serious about winning on the latter.

    I think jockeys should be made to study Sam Waley-Cohen video replays on how to get horses to meet fences on a stride. I don't think there is better out there.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  6. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    It's a ridiculously deep race and I still think Kalondra is going to be extremely difficult to beat, let alone kick out of the frame. I was in town today and made a rare visit to the bookies to see the first race. I looked at what Kealy had to say while I was waiting. I don't know how often he does this but I noticed he had what looked like a space filler at the end of his item in which he emphasised how strongly he fancies Kalondra. I still think it will shorten up again in the morning and could go off about 5/2.

    I think if Pricewise was putting up Frodon word would have been out before now and it would have gone blue.

    I can actually see me taking out some sickness insurance on stablemate Roman De Senam despite his defeat last week. I have a very high rating for him and he was very heavily backed last week but I was never entirely happy with the ride he got without it actually looking like a non-trying ride. I wouldn't put it past Nicholls to have used that race as a prep before coming out after a win here (assuming a mishap for Kalondra, of course ) and saying he just needed t last week, or it was too short, not run to suit, etc etc etc.
    I havent been able to log in for a couple of days.
    Romain de senam was my main bet in the end and i agree with everything you said about him.pity the first fence got in the way.Baron Alco was my saver.

  7. #147
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Meant to say...


    I got a call yesterday afternoon not long after the big race from my brother (who isn't as cynical as me) asking whether I thought the Benatar - Baron Alco thing was one big put-away by the Moores.

    On reflection, he's probably right. I suspect Benatar was a decoy all along.

    https://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=195501

  8. #148
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Nonsense like that doesn't even deserve an answer
    Formely Fist of Fury

  9. #149
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    Rather Be was absolutely cantering when brought down 4 out.
    Was definitely going ok but look to his right and Adam Wedge hasn't moved a muscle. 4 out is fully 10 furlongs out at Cheltenham and there was at least 8 of the first 9 yet to be asked a serious question.

    Guitar Pete was under pressure but he finds for pressure while King Socks who looked to be going ok finds SFA in his races.

    It would have taken some performance for any of the fallers to have beaten the winner who was very impressive IMO
    Formely Fist of Fury

  10. #150
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Cheers, DG. That goes a long way to confirming my brother's suspicions.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. #151
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Just in terms of it being a satisfactory race? Can you draw any worthwhile conclusions on those that hit the deck bar MWTT? 6 finishers must be annoying.
    I've done some initial figures.

    They back up my immediate impression that it was a 'great' race, certainly in terms of the ratings it's throwing up. A little bit like my huge ratings for the Whitbread (won by Step Back from Rock The Kasbah) which I wasn't sure were reliable, these ratings are 'way up there with the best renewals of the race in terms of being ahead of the handicapper.

    And Kalondra would have won if it had run to my rating for it. Rather Be would have needed to improve 10lbs on my alread good rating for it to have dead-deated with Baron Alco, which ties in very closely with its handicapping turnaround with Mister Whitaker from the festival race.

    I'll add more later - squeezing this in while the TV adverts are on!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  12. #152
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    On my figures, Frodon, Mister Whitaker and Eamon An Cnoic have run to their previous ratings to the ounce but the form might be even better again as I had MW with a 'p' and EAC with a '+'. For the time being I'm using their old ratings because I thought MW could have jumped a little better or could have been rider nearer midfield. EAC ran in midfield so may have run his race but what if he's better, as the '+' suggests?

    Frodon had a '?' because his rating was just so high but, like RTK in the longer race, he has justified it despite not jumping as well as he can. Maybe he's better as well.

    The new handicap mark rises are almost irrelevant to the level of form. Baron Alco's new mark leaves him on a rating off which he can take any decent Saturday handicap but he'll need to improve again to win a big one (£50k+).
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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