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Thread: Bet Victor Gold Cup Cheltenham Sat Nov 17th

  1. #41
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    I'd agree Euro, Rather Be 9lbs better off for a head and almost certainly gonna get better ground which would suit.

  2. #42
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Rather Be's last two bits of work reported to be good having been slow to come to hand. Don't shoot the messenger

  3. #43
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Kalondra has been backed into single-figures in places over the last few days. I hope the confidence isn’t misplaced!
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  4. #44
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    Kings Socks is one I have my eye on for this weekend, hopefully for the Chase on Friday. He is still only a six year old and was far from disgraced in fifth place at The Festival before falling at Aintree. He could be a force to be reckoned with, I await to see what race they declare him for. The bookies aren't taking any chances, most firms have him at 6/1 for the Chase on Friday which is way too short. I reckon if declared he will be double digit prices nearer to racetime.
    Last edited by Marb; 12th November 2018 at 2:41 PM.

  5. #45
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    He's got in the BetVictor Gold Cup

  6. #46
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    Cheers, DG. What about Cobra De Mai?

  7. #47
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've done an initial trawl of my figures for the race. There are a few things I want to check over (older form, videos etc) before I put anything on here but I'd say those who got on Kalondra at nice prices can look forward to the race. The betting looks all over the place this evening and I don't see anyone going NRNB so far.

    There are a few on my radar I was half-expecting to be on offer at 50s or so but the bookies are giving nothing away, I don't think. It's all very disappointing and I'll probably just wait until the weekend now, unless Paul Kealy puts up one of mine on Wednesday. At least he'll probably have checked with connections to see if he's likely to get a run.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 12th November 2018 at 7:43 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  8. #48
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Cheers, DG. What about Cobra De Mai?
    Withdrawn

  9. #49
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    List of 28 confirmations and weights

    https://www.timeform.com/horse-racin...d-cup-12112018

  10. #50
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    Re - Rather Be & Mister Whitaker. Tigger's and Euro might turn out to be right. I have a soft spot for Mister Whitaker as I won on him last March, so I'd prefer to see him win. I still can't get my head around whether to back Mister Whitaker at 7/1 or Kings Socks at 14/1 though.
    Last edited by Marb; 12th November 2018 at 9:28 PM.

  11. #51
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    Kings Socks owes a few I should think Martin must be well handicapped. I like Benatar too but not well h'capped. surely Mr Whit also blown his chances at carlisle unlike Happy Diva who i quite fancy for a great campaign this year

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    Last edited by Tiny Clanger; 12th November 2018 at 10:03 PM.

  12. #52
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    King’s Socks also entered in 2m handicap on the Friday.

    He’s also a bas*tard of a thief of a horse.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  13. #53
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    King’s Socks also entered in 2m handicap on the Friday.

    He’s also a bas*tard of a thief of a horse.
    I noticed when I looked at his form last night that the race analysis suggested he travels so well a drop back to 2m might suit him.
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  14. #54
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    I went big on Rather Be when the entries came out. Perfect profile and Mister Whittaker going up after his run around Carlisle is a bonus as I'd have feared him most. That said I'd have had Rather Be to reverse form anyway on better ground.

    I always try to look for the horse that could go on to win or place in a Ryanair or Gold Cup, and from the entries he's the only one I think fits the bill. I'll have a back up each way on a seasoned campaigner that likes the track too as they have a great place record and have provided the winner in the last two years.

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    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Benatar is my fancy. I've missed the prices on Rather Be who's a worthy favourite from a profile sense.

  16. #56
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    I always try to look for the horse that could go on to win or place in a Ryanair or Gold Cup, and from the entries he's the only one I think fits the bill.
    Sure you're looking hard enough, Maruco?
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  17. #57
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    I'm guessing your referring to Frodon Maurice. He's almost certainly going to be my each way play. I do wonder whether they are also using his mark to get Movewiththetimes in off a feather weight.

  18. #58
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Frodon does fit your bill and is on my radar but I think Kalondra is a 2/1 shot in this.

    I see no reason to question his Galway form, other than his soft fall. They seemed to go a decent pace and he was the only one not off the bridle when he came down two out. I've rated him as dead-heating for second/third that day but he might even have won it, which would put another 6lbs or so on his rating (and he's already well clear at the top with me). If he's fit, well and targeting the race only bad luck can beat him.
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  19. #59
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    Shamefully I haven't looked at the Galway race. I'm going to look and rate it now. Thanks.

  20. #60
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    I've just watched the race, and it's too far out to get anything meaningful from it. I would say that the front two were going equally well and there was still the best part of half a mile left at at the second last.

    On the plus side he was conceding 7lb's to two decent horses, but both have been dispatched with ease when they've been at the top table. I do see where you're coming from though, and you may well be right. If I were to rate him it would be through the Coo Star Sivola form who he beat at the December meeting (as well as Movewiththetimes), and I certainly agree than on that form he's a danger.

    If two horses jump well and you want to making a comparison it can often be useful to check back to peak hurdle form to get a handle on the pair. In this instance, and setting aside OR's, I rate Rather Be 1lb ahead of Kalondra over hurdles. Rather be carries 1lb more over fences so there's a flawed train of thought that puts them upside each other.

    I couldn't back both at the head of the market, so it would be a case of making a decision. I could cash out on Rather Be for a profit and switch if I was convinced, but the kicker for me is Rather Be's form in a big field when compared to Kalondra, and the balance of form suggests this kind of race is right up Rather Be's street where Kalondra's best form is in small fields. Not that it's bad I hasten to add.

    Can I ask where you get his best rating from outside of the assumptions you've made for Galway Maurice? I assume it's the Coo Star Sivola race? If so the best I can have him is 4lbs better than his current mark. That could be good enough of course, but it wouldn't be the profile I'm looking for.

    Not the the right thread but I'd also be interested in what ratings you have for Midnight Shadow, Silver Streak, and Western Ryder in the Greatwood.

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