Melon is way too big here.....
Melon is way too big here.....
Super analysis from a friend of mine who specialises in studying horse stride patterns & gait but uses his 30 year experience to analyse bigger graded races.
“At the Dublin Racing Festival Apples Jade sustained her stride within 5% of Peak for 26.72s to Line over a 60 stride count. Her peak stride was the same as Xmas Hurdle at 4.36s/10strides.
In comparison to BVD (4.48s 4.08s 4.60s) Apples Jade is (4.70s 4.36s 4.59s) This suggests Buveur D’Air can operate at a higher cruising speed before engaging peak and sustain the equal 10 stride time of Apples Jade.
The difference is stride length and Apples Jade’s longer time sustain value. BVD has an 8sec Peak. A big note on Apples Jade from yesterday is she changed leads 10+ times, sometimes unnecessarily. This may not suit Cheltenham over 2m at full pelt. She also flashed her tail, no one saw that after Last jump..the question for her is if they go faster in the champion, which I suspect they will, will that huge sustain time be dented..hard to call it but more than likely it will.
From a physical output sense Buveur D’Air is up there with the best i've seen..because of the way horses are assessed and rated here now with collateral form he'll never get the credit he deserves. I’d love to see BVD in a Group flat race from 12f+..i have suggested he'd be a ideal Melbourne Cup horse”.
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Desert Orchid (4th March 2019)
"I’m very happy with him at the minute. We have our own reasons why we think he disappointed in the Irish Champion Hurdle and we are going to change a few things for Cheltenham that will hopefully help him. I don’t want to go into what those things are just yet, but we have a few ideas. I know Buveur D’Air’s connections think that he is better than he was on Champion Hurdle day last season, but I’d be hopeful Melon can be better than he was that day too."
That's all I'm going on....if you know anything different would be happy to hear...
Last edited by Kauto Abu; 20th February 2019 at 11:04 PM.
Kauto Abu (20th February 2019)
This threads been quiet. What about something like Brain Power to upset the apple cart?
Marb (4th March 2019)
Barring a fall I cannot see anything other than a top 3 of Boover, Sharjah, Apple's.
That's a romantic view of the race, Double J. However, I believe that if there's three horses supposedly all 'this good', then murphy's law suggests that none of them are Istabraq, with all potentially being beaten by something at a bigger price. I'm no Vincent O Brien but the great trainer once said that if you reckon you've got five Derby horses then you've probably got none. A similar thing could apply here. On the one hand, Apples Jade has been very impressive this season, but she's plenty exposed now, she'll be conquered at some juncture at the 'highest level'. Boover is beatable. Laurina has questions to answer. I've decided I will actually be taking all three of them on with something at a bigger price. Maybe Brain Power, possibly something else. I'll let you know.
Last edited by Marb; 4th March 2019 at 1:45 AM.
The two mares stand their ground at today's stage
No Charli Parcs. Looks like Envoi Allen could be at the head of affairs for JP so badgering. He’ll last longer than CP out in front.
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Waste of a 5yearold horse if they do
They would be better off wining a pot with him at Aintree, Punch,Fairy or Aintree
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
Maybe they wont. Perhaps they’re happy enough with the pace up front with Global
citizen & AJ.
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Pauling has said they won't be pushing him out at the front.
Davy Russell on Verdana Blue, Nico on Brain Power
edgt (7th March 2019)
I know I'm not the only one changing their minds a few times on this race. I had to remind myself I said this quote a few days ago. Although Apples Jade has a favourites chance, my other plays on the day are all each way prices, so I'm going to stick Espoir D'allen in the each way lucky 63. Let's see how good the big three horses really are then eh...!
Last edited by Marb; 12th March 2019 at 7:06 AM.
I keep looking at Brain Power remembering how much Nicky thought of this horse a few years back after he won at Sandown in December 2016. Granted a long time ago but they then tried him in the Champion Hurdle and he went off 13/2 but was disappointing. We all know he can’t jump fences and his return to hurdles was a good idea, winning the International Hurdle well. The ground won’t faze him either. I’m not saying he’ll win but I think he could come third if one or two of the principles don’t run their race.