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Thread: The Road to the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup

  1. #161
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Nicky confirming again Altior wont go King George...It's not that he hasn't sent good 2 milers before Remittance Man finished 3rd to the fellow Travado (Fell) and Tiutchev nearly won it

    I suppose Sprinter and Altior were/are just too good at the min trip to be upsetting the applecart and that may have more to do with it than them thinking Might Bite is certain to come bouncing back............will be interesting to find out
    Owners would and if MB wasn't there am sure he would

    Nicky calls the shots
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  2. #162
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    I'm sure that might all change if The Gold Cup has broken the biter.

  3. #163
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Let's not pretend it's about the horse with Nicky he didn't get where he is today without putting LSD's first and foremost.

    The 2nd place King George money is a disgrace and isn't worth the risk of upsetting plans when he can doddle round in the Dessie for that kind of money.

    The King George has always been 2nd only to the Gold Cup in prestige but in hard cash doesn't even come close

    The QMCC and the Ryanair are both worth nearly twice as much and the Hennessy a Grade 3 handicap is worth 25k more than the King George
    Formely Fist of Fury

  4. #164
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    I'm sure that might all change if The Gold Cup has broken the biter.
    I think it would be a sad blow for racing if this turned out to be the case.

    I can't really see it myself, though.

    MB, to me, was just so reminiscent of Wayward Lad in the Gold Cup and that one bounced back. Haydock was a one-off. We're up against a fruitcake of a CoC there.

    I also think that Hendo is only going to allow MB to show his true form when circumstances demand it. I imagine he thought MB would only need to be 80% ready to win the Betfair but other factors ended up affecting him.

    I said in the run-up to Haydock that if MB is allowed to put in the kind of injection of pace as in his RSA nothing will live with him but he would probably need to be 100% ready for it to happen.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 12th December 2018 at 10:10 AM.
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  5. #165
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    Wayward Lad never won a Gold Cup either.
    Last edited by archie; 12th December 2018 at 10:11 AM.
    The older I get the better I was.

  6. #166
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    I hope you are right DO.

  7. #167
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Wayward Lad never won a Gold Cup either.
    No, and to be honest I'm not really expecting him but I said the same about Desert Orchid (and was on Yahoo at 100/1 that day )

    However, I also think there was an element of circumstances at play in this year's Gold Cup.

    As I wrote in my review at the time:

    “Take out Might Bite and this could be a good handicap.” This pre-race summary is the overriding context of my low ratings for this race. It was a wonderful spectacle at the time because the commentary made it sound like the two protagonists were serving up a savage pace. It seemed like we were witnessing one of the all-time great Gold Cups. In fact, it was anything but, although the winner’s new OR of 176 makes it look good. I won’t be at all surprised if in time we see that mark drop again.

    Native River is a thoroughly admirable beast but he was rather beaten up here by Johnson in his determination to see off Might Bite on whom de Boinville showed commendable restraint when it was clear his partner had no answer to the heavy ground up the hill. This exaggerated the winner’s margin of victory as well as the third’s closing effort.

    I can see where the handicapper gets his 176 for the winner from. Road To Respect and Djakadam have run relatively close to their marks and makes that possible. We also know Might Bite is top class. However, I’ve watched the race a few times now. The front two got to dictate their own pace on virgin ground. I suspect this seduced the others into thinking they must be going fast and as a result they were held up off a moderate pace against better horses so were always going to struggle to get into it. Djakadam has proved more than once he doesn’t stay this trip. He’s less likely to have stayed in this ground. He was in the group just behind the pace and probably ran as well as could be expected but I can’t have him running to his good ground best here, which is what Native River’s 176 implies. Definitly Red maybe had a harder race than it looked last time or maybe just didn’t fancy another slog in a bog. Either way, he was never running his race. It wasn’t the pace that beat him. Anibale Fly in third is a good handicapper, nothing more. He’s probably a few pounds better than his pre-race 159 rating but he’s the one who, for me, is a key guide to the form. He’s as close to Native River as he should have been. Road To Respect didn’t stay but it looks like he’s been taken as one of the key guides, which would make Native River’s 176 logical. I can’t have that.

    Everything else was trying to come from poor positions off a moderate pace in ground being churned up ahead of them. Saphir Du Rheu probably got nearly the worst ride of the entire field. Not only was he held up but he was also kept wide, racing in the ground that had been badly churned up the previous day. Twiston-Davies was presumably riding to instructions as it was a carbon copy of the ride he gave the horse last year but that was on decent ground. I suspect the horse needs to see his fences and he was never going to be ridden in the pack so I also suspect Nicholls and Twiston-Davies had decided before the race they were just going to let him do what he could for a circuit before saving him for Aintree. It’s a ride I can understand but I cannot for the life of me understand the ride Edwulf got. I’m still angry about it.

    So all in all, I’m going low with the bare ratings but I half-expect to adjust them upwards by a pound or two in the coming months but I’ll be surprised if I end up getting them near the ORs.

    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 12th December 2018 at 12:51 PM.
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  8. #168
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Jessie on Sizing john

    “I was happy enough with him. He’s got to do a lot. We’ve a long way to go, but I was happy with him.

    “Robbie (Power) was riding him.
    “He’ll do more in the next 10 days.”
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  9. #169
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Road To Respect didn’t stay but it looks like he’s been taken as one of the key guides, which would make Native River’s 176 logical. I can’t have that.


    It's very possible R2R didn't stay but the ground wasn't ideal and he went into the race without a run since December.

  10. #170
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    It's very possible R2R didn't stay but the ground wasn't ideal and he went into the race without a run since December.
    Indeed, Euro. Hardly sound reasons for rating Native River via him.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. #171
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Wouldn't fancy Percy if this was his first run of season, same with Waiting Patiently.
    WP had a racecourse gallop at Hexham yesterday

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  13. #172
    Senior Member Grey's Avatar
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    It's usually Patrick rather than his father who likes to stretch his legs on a racecourse

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  15. #173
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    WP had a racecourse gallop at Hexham yesterday
    WP galloped over six furlongs on the all-weather gallop in Malton this morning.

  16. #174
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    Disko had a racecourse with Road To Respect yesterday and is due to run at Leopardstown next week in Saville Chase, or whatever they call it now.
    Noel Meade in top form and would love a Gold Cup as much as WPM.

  17. #175
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    I love a bit of Disko fever
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  18. #176
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Jessie re Sizing John a few minutes ago

    "I have decided to take SIZING JOHN out of Leopardstown over Christmas because I’ve been unable to get a suitable gallop into him on the grass because of all the previous dry weather we had.

    He’s around 15kg heavier than his usual racing weight and if he’d had a run already this season I wouldn’t mind running him but it will be a tough ask first time out so we will instead give him a little more time and look at bringing him back in something like the Kinloch Brae, which he won in 2017, in Thurles next month.


    Everything is absolutely fine with him, but I took the decision to take him out so I wouldn’t be tempted to run!"

  19. #177
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Will be a kicking king/Lazarus type comeback for him at this stage. Fair enough that they are playing it safe

    Belshill and PP need to see a track soon too
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  20. #178
    Senior Member Grey's Avatar
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    The forecast into next week is looking fairly dry. This change in going that the NH stables are praying for still seems to be some way off.

  21. #179
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    Not around here Art.
    Cork racecourse has been under water continually since the last meeting there.
    Plenty of rain to the weekend and beyond.
    A lot of rain is flowing off the surface as ground is not poached so is quite decent underneath.

  22. #180
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    It's been absolutely hosing it down in Bristol for at least a week now.

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