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Thread: The Road to the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup

  1. #61
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    Re Mullins raiders for King George, high-percentage chance they will stay home to contest Leopardstown Xmas Festival races at the Lep, given how close Elliott is getting to wresting the Trainer’s title away from Closutton.

    Footpad will probably go in the Dial-a-Bet Chase, and Douvan might step-up for the Xmas Chase.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Douvan prob wont be sighted until 2019

    Great field is one I hope gets a fair crack at things
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Likewise......though I fear he is too fragile, and fair chance he’d get jumped into the deck if he ran into Footpad.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Likewise......though I fear he is too fragile, and fair chance he’d get jumped into the deck if he ran into Footpad.
    Kind of horse who could get the Penhill/quevega type of training and turn up somewhere ready to rock some day.
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    A fair amount of my my bets now and in the near future will include some sort of Footpad for the QM bet.

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    Don't you think he'd be looking to aim Douvan for the King George Nick? I get what you say about the trainers championship, but there are several reason to think he might. I'd say the race at Kempton is likely to suit his speed and style of running better and he's far more likely to get the trip, and there are likely to be fewer runners which I feel would a good thing for him. Willie also has a plethora of horses he can aim at Leopardstown anyway and he's going to have a challenge fitting them all in.

    On the flip-side Ruby will have a big say and is likely to want to ride at Leopardstown if Willie has big guns out on Boxing Day, and they could take the view that the Kempton fences are stiffer and pose more of a risk to his biggest achilles heal which is his jumping.

    For selfish reasons I'd much rather Douvan stayed at home. He'd be the biggest challenger to Might Bite who I've got running in to some Festival multiples again (although I have taken some cover on Douvan to my total stake just in case), but for racing reasons I'd much rather see him at Kempton. That would be some spectacle watching Mite Bite and Douvan go at it in the last mile with the others a furlong behind!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Don't you think he'd be looking to aim Douvan for the King George Nick? I get what you say about the trainers championship, but there are several reason to think he might. I'd say the race at Kempton is likely to suit his speed and style of running better and he's far more likely to get the trip, and there are likely to be fewer runners which I feel would a good thing for him. Willie also has a plethora of horses he can aim at Leopardstown anyway and he's going to have a challenge fitting them all in.

    On the flip-side Ruby will have a big say and is likely to want to ride at Leopardstown if Willie has big guns out on Boxing Day, and they could take the view that the Kempton fences are stiffer and pose more of a risk to his biggest achilles heal which is his jumping.

    For selfish reasons I'd much rather Douvan stayed at home. He'd be the biggest challenger to Might Bite who I've got running in to some Festival multiples again (although I have taken some cover on Douvan to my total stake just in case), but for racing reasons I'd much rather see him at Kempton. That would be some spectacle watching Mite Bite and Douvan go at it in the last mile with the others a furlong behind!!!
    How far would Waiting Patiently be...?

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    I've heard mixed reports about Waiting Patiently. The initial reports were that he's unlikely to be seen out before the new year, but more recently I hear he's back in the yard and likely to be ready some time in November. I think much depends on whether they can get a prep in to him, and after his injury how much time he'll then have between race by Boxing Day.

    If he's fit, well, healthy and primed on the day he'd be in the mix. Will he see out a truly run three miles, who knows. I suspect not at the top level, but could be completely wrong of course.

    Don't forget Native River is likely to be there too, so I can't imagine them hanging around, and we should get a plenty of pace on at the front just as we did in the Gold Cup. Native River will want more of a test though you'd think, and if Might Bite is ready to do himself justice Nico can press the afterburners with half a mile to go. Perhaps a horse like Waiting Patiently can pick up the pieces if they go too fast.

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    That's a fair appraisal and I should have qualified the question to specify 'a fit WP'.

    From a betting perspective, 7-1 at best doesn't look to me in the slightest bit attractive without some positive noise regarding his recovery and likely scheduled reappearance.

    It's funny, having just re-watched the Ascot and Kempton runs I wouldn't be anywhere near as bullish now about him getting a strongly run G1 3m either. Not entirely as I remembered them....
    Last edited by Ivantheterrible; 6th September 2018 at 12:12 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Don't you think he'd be looking to aim Douvan for the King George Nick? I get what you say about the trainers championship, but there are several reason to think he might. I'd say the race at Kempton is likely to suit his speed and style of running better and he's far more likely to get the trip, and there are likely to be fewer runners which I feel would a good thing for him. Willie also has a plethora of horses he can aim at Leopardstown anyway and he's going to have a challenge fitting them all in.

    On the flip-side Ruby will have a big say and is likely to want to ride at Leopardstown if Willie has big guns out on Boxing Day, and they could take the view that the Kempton fences are stiffer and pose more of a risk to his biggest achilles heal which is his jumping.

    For selfish reasons I'd much rather Douvan stayed at home. He'd be the biggest challenger to Might Bite who I've got running in to some Festival multiples again (although I have taken some cover on Douvan to my total stake just in case), but for racing reasons I'd much rather see him at Kempton. That would be some spectacle watching Mite Bite and Douvan go at it in the last mile with the others a furlong behind!!!

    I don't have much Douvan optimism - hard to envisage him getting back to 75% of his ability - I do hope i'm wrong
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Don't you think he'd be looking to aim Douvan for the King George Nick? I get what you say about the trainers championship, but there are several reason to think he might. I'd say the race at Kempton is likely to suit his speed and style of running better and he's far more likely to get the trip, and there are likely to be fewer runners which I feel would a good thing for him. Willie also has a plethora of horses he can aim at Leopardstown anyway and he's going to have a challenge fitting them all in.

    On the flip-side Ruby will have a big say and is likely to want to ride at Leopardstown if Willie has big guns out on Boxing Day, and they could take the view that the Kempton fences are stiffer and pose more of a risk to his biggest achilles heal which is his jumping.

    For selfish reasons I'd much rather Douvan stayed at home. He'd be the biggest challenger to Might Bite who I've got running in to some Festival multiples again (although I have taken some cover on Douvan to my total stake just in case), but for racing reasons I'd much rather see him at Kempton. That would be some spectacle watching Mite Bite and Douvan go at it in the last mile with the others a furlong behind!!!
    Kempton’s ‘easy’ miles is a myth. King George is one of the sternest tests on the calendar, because the pace is relentless, and I’ve seen plenty of good and great 2-milers fail to get home. Suspect stamina gets stretched beyond breaking-point.

    Don’t think there’s much chance of seeing Douvan at Kempton, and I would happily lay him if he ran, and The Biter was in the field. Douvan would be PU’d before the straight.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 6th September 2018 at 10:44 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    I agree Kempton is one of the sterner tests. A horse needs a balance of speed and stamina to win a King George. What catches the stayers out, or typical Gold Cup winners out, is the ability to go the pace with in their comfort zone, not the ability to stay the trip. That's why Florida Pearl could beat Best Mate there, but always went out like a light at Cheltenham. What we know of Douvan suggests he can easily go the pace, but what we don't know is whether he can do it for long enough.

    For what its worth I think his jumping is more of a risk, but clearly his ability to see it out is also a risk. I think he probably would, but not as well as Might Bite. I see the Lexus being a much bigger challenge for him to be honest, and therefore I hope Willie sends him over. I concede that he probably won't though.

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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    The jury is out on Douvan so until then!

    Some horse like Native River improve from previous efforts and win a Gold Cup but more don't like Djakadam.

    I can't see Might Bite changing much at all. I think he is what he is and what you see is what you get and I don't see him ever winning a Gold Cup.

    A horse who does keep on improving is Bellshill who did better in his first season over jumps as I thought he would. Won a Grade 1 late on that year.

    He just keeps getting better and at this early stage would be my selection
    .
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Bellshill my hole.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Bellshill might bite your hole.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Last year it was Native River my ass
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    In terms of race planning, Bellshill will probably take in the Lexus for as don't see an immediate prep race for him.

    Now that Djack is gone interesting to see what WPM sends to the John Durkan
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Last year it was Native River my ass
    I backed Native River for previous GC, and considered him the only potential threat to the Biter after his light campaign. Weather got the Biter beaten.....not trip.....not class.....and he certainly won’t be beaten by a carnival-act like Bellshill in any race at Cheltenham - he’ll have his arse handed to him on a plate again.

    Feel free to quote me on all of the above next March.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 11th September 2018 at 12:08 AM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Bellshill might bite your hole.
    Not in this lifetime.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Not in this lifetime.
    Sir Alex Ferguson c2009?
    Last edited by archie; 11th September 2018 at 9:03 AM.
    The older I get the better I was.

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