Page 15 of 25 FirstFirst ... 51011121314151617181920 ... LastLast
Results 281 to 300 of 500

Thread: The Road to the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup

  1. #281
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Cheltenham
    Posts
    3,687
    Thanks
    346
    Thanked 379 Times in 314 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'm not sure Frodon needs to lead. He just needs to be on his game on the day.
    Agree with you're earlier post about them not going Gold Cup pace yesterday. Still Frodon is a thoroughly likeable sort.

  2. #282
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    1,011
    Thanks
    438
    Thanked 298 Times in 241 Posts
    Nicholls yard hasn't been firing on all cylinders of late - excluding Frodon yesterday he has only saddled 2 winners from 23 runners in the last 14 days, this together with the post race comments which suggested Frodon wasn't fully wound up yesterday, if like me you think he was idling in front more than being exposed as a questionable stayer then he is a very big player. There are serious doubts about ll thse at the head of the market. Any horse that has 4 chase wins at the course deserves respect, the big qestion is like others have said the pace angle, his two worst runs at the course were at the festival.

  3. #283
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    Nicholls’ horses are invariably quiet at this time of year as they have their vaccines and he lets them down before readying them for the big sprint targets. For all that, no way does Frodon win the Gold Cup IMO. Horses that don’t truly stay the trip don’t win Gold Cups, especially when horses like Native River make it a real test.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  4. #284
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts
    PN on Racing Debate this morning

    "I don't train horses to win Gold Cups in January"

  5. #285
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    1,011
    Thanks
    438
    Thanked 298 Times in 241 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Nicholls’ horses are invariably quiet at this time of year as they have their vaccines and he lets them down before readying them for the big sprint targets. For all that, no way does Frodon win the Gold Cup IMO. Horses that don’t truly stay the trip don’t win Gold Cups, especially when horses like Native River make it a real test.
    But this is an unknown, there is absolutely zero evidence to suggest he doesn't stay, its a justifiable position but as of yet unproven.

  6. #286
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    4,766
    Thanks
    77
    Thanked 175 Times in 161 Posts
    The fact Elegant Escape(boat) finished as close as he did off what was not a searching pace says it all.

    Is 'idling' one of the most overused words in racing!
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  7. #287
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    FWIW, Frodon covered the final circuit to the final fence as fast as either of the two shorter races. He was slightly slower from the last but given he was short of peak fitness and was dossing in front, it's not a bad old run.

    I'm not sure Native River could run the circuit any faster. Then again, I've never seen him as anything other than an ordinary winner.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  8. #288
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    1,011
    Thanks
    438
    Thanked 298 Times in 241 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    The fact Elegant Escape(boat) finished as close as he did off what was not a searching pace says it all.

    Is 'idling' one of the most overused words in racing!
    No, 'boat' is!

  9. #289
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    4,766
    Thanks
    77
    Thanked 175 Times in 161 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Beef or Salmon View Post
    No, 'boat' is!
    Incorrect.

    Boat not in same league as idling on TV.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  10. #290
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Not got much to lose.
    Posts
    3,187
    Thanks
    726
    Thanked 471 Times in 295 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I mentioned elsewhere that maybe Frodon wasn't quite fit and I've read another race report in which Nicholls states openly the horse was short of full fitness.

    In the same report, Henderson says Terrefort blew up, which he "half-expected" but goes on to say he's not sure what race he'll run in at Cheltenham.

    I learned a long time ago that ratings don't win races and I'm by no means saying Frodon will win the Gold Cup but at least he's one step closer.
    Nicholls said immediately post race that he was worried he hadn't done enough with him as he had had a break - Frodon that is not PN. Bryony took a pull between the last 3/4 or 4/5 ( I would have to watch it back) She knows him so well, if they get the ground and he turns up fully fit, I honestly think they could do it.

  11. #291
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Before I'd even get into discussing Frodon's ability which is frankly not good enough for a gold cup, he tends to run shockingly every spring without fail. Compare his winter form with his spring form each year and then move on.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  12. #292
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,592
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts
    In my short time following racing, I think this year will be the worst renewal I can remember.

  13. #293
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Before I'd even get into discussing Frodon's ability which is frankly not good enough for a gold cup, he tends to run shockingly every spring without fail. Compare his winter form with his spring form each year and then move on.
    I admit it's an angle I hadn't considered but he's only turned seven and was trained before with big Saturday hcaps, rather than Cheltenham in March, in mind.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. #294
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    North Cork. Home of steeple chasing
    Posts
    5,341
    Thanks
    2,209
    Thanked 1,335 Times in 801 Posts
    Blog Entries
    7
    Add in his form with Bryony Frost , only once out of the money , compared to his other partners record and it might just happen.
    Field size on the day may be a factor though as a smaller field may suit a horse of his stature.

  15. #295
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    3,657
    Thanks
    742
    Thanked 900 Times in 590 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    In my short time following racing, I think this year will be the worst renewal I can remember.
    I'm struggling to see how it qualifies as that, given that the first four home last year are likely to return plus the best of last season's novices.
    The older I get the better I was.

  16. #296
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,748
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    In my short time following racing, I think this year will be the worst renewal I can remember.
    I disagree JJ. Whilst there's no Kauto or Denman I'd say it may end up being a deep, big field, Gold Cup.

    Thinking about what may turn up I may go as far as saying as deep as any previous I can think of.

  17. #297
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    If Sizing John were to come back and this wet weather should help his case, i think it looks a fine renewal
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  18. #298
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    For me it's shaping up as bang average, like last year's.

    I can see the logic in saying it's a good one if you believe last year's was a good one, or a poor one if you take a worst-case-scenario view of the individual contenders' form.

    It's seldom a poor race but the best horse doesn't always win.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  19. #299
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,748
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    I'm also in the opposite camp with regards last years Gold Cup Maurice. It's rare for us to disagree actually but we're absolute opposites on this one.

    All that said I understand why you've take the view you have with Anibale Fly in third beaten eight and half lengths. I think you do him and Geraghty a disservice though as he was given an excellent picking up the pieces ride.

    Djakadam holds the form together though, and his previous three and half, four and a half, and one and half length defeats to Sizing John, Don Cossack, and Coneygree when all at their peak are the most reliable formlines to take. You can't make a case for regression in Djakadam's performance, because in the Punchestown Gold Cup after the race he was every bit as good as his performances in the same race following his previous Gold Cup defeats.

    If you accept that, alongside the pace that no other horse could live with in the soft ground, and the fact that the were entitled to a relatively slower finish as a consequence of the punishing pace, then I think the winning margin is even more meritorious. I would go as far as saying I could make a case that it was possibly the best Gold Cup of recent years. I would go as far as to say that I genuinely believe that the winning performance was potentially good enough to win each renewal since 2010.
    Last edited by Maruco; 29th January 2019 at 12:27 PM.

  20. #300
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    I think you do [Anibale Fly] and Geraghty a disservice though as he was given an excellent picking up the pieces ride.
    This, for me, is one of the major de-coders of the race.

    In a proper race, I'm always looking for a lower-rated horse that gets such a ride, not over-raced and able to run to its max as other shoot their bolt. I reckon such types tend to run to their best previous rating and are the most accurate guide to the form.

    As I said elsewhere, the ground was unusual last year. Native River and Might Bite got to race on fresh ground. The ones that went slightly wider were racing on churned ground.

    Djakadam, for me, was the most difficult factor in the equation in that I wasn't sure how close he'd run to his previous ratings. It was reading somewhere within a day or two of the race that he didn't stay that led me down the negative route. He might be one of those horses that gets faster as he gets older at the expense of stamina, not unlike some of those old Flat horses that raced over a mile or so before later in their career ending up running better at sprint distances.

    I do see both sides of the argument and I'm open to the more positive view ultimately prevailing. Then again, I've never had Native River that high on any other form. I'd actually back Un Temps Pour Tout to beat him in a match over the Gold Cup trip.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •