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Thread: The Road to the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup

  1. #261
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    I'm actually considering going even further 'left field' than this, because having looked through American's form, I believe that despite his last few awful performances, there is a lot of raw ability in this horse. He's a horse who beat Rock The Kasbah eight lengths while giving him six pounds just under two years ago in March 2017. He has been well fancied in races since then, but simply cannot have been under any circumstances his usual self.

    Now returning from a near three month break, not only will I stick him in Saturdays Lucky 15, but I also can't help having an Each Way bet for The Gold Cup at 100/1. The last time I pulled a stunt like this, was when backing Champagne West at similar odds for The Gold Cup, (just before he hacked up in a handicap in Ireland), which from memory was The Thyestes Handicap Chase. Champagne West turned out to be out of his depth on the day and went backwards afterwards, but I got some excellent each way value in any event.

    It is a big ask, but yes, I'm having a go on American at 100-1 each way for The Gold Cup.
    Fry's stable tour is in the Weekender. He says American is very difficult to keep right and struggles to stand the rigours of training.
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  2. #262
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    If I were going to back a horse for the Gold Cup at big odds in anticipation of a decent showing on Saturday then it'd be Minella Rocco @ 50s. He's had a wind op since his last run and might get his ground this year, something he never had last season.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  3. #263
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Fry's stable tour is in the Weekender. He says American is very difficult to keep right and struggles to stand the rigours of training.
    Fair enough, but they don't win prizes on the gallops. It's only four or five starts ago since his form has deteriorated. I think he deserves another chance after a decent break from the track.
    I'll have a go at the 100-1 for The Gold Cup each way, once I see him in the final declarations for this Saturday.

    The odds are stacked against me, so please go easy on me if comes nowhere.
    Last edited by Marb; 24th January 2019 at 2:42 PM.

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  5. #264
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    If I were going to back a horse for the Gold Cup at big odds in anticipation of a decent showing on Saturday then it'd be Minella Rocco @ 50s. He's had a wind op since his last run and might get his ground this year, something he never had last season.
    I did Terrefort a few weeks back @ 66/1.
    His defeat of Elegant Escape at Aintree puts him not far behind Presenting Percy. He obviously disappointed first time out at Sandown, but a physical issue came to light. He also beat Cyrname as a Novice who hosed up at Ascot on Saturday.
    At the price worth a tickle I thought.
    Last edited by tiggers1972; 24th January 2019 at 1:42 PM.

  6. #265
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    The worry for me would be that he runs well on Saturday and leaves his Gold Cup there.
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  7. #266
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    I did Terrefort a few weeks back @ 66/1.
    Yes, he's been in the back of my mind too. I think they quite fancied him for the Hennessy off top weight or something like that, which means he's very highly regarded.
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  8. #267
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    An awful lot to like about Invitation Only's performance.
    Thyestes winners off top or near top weight are Gold Cup horses usually.
    The only proviso is Ruby's statement on RTE2 that handicap inflation has been happening over the last few years and some deflation is needed for balance.
    He questions the horses' rating off 152 plus whatever he gets , but being a Flemensfirth chaser he should keep improving .
    I think my buddy E P Harty missed a trick not running Coney Island as the race would have made a man of him and they would better know their horses' ability., but that's me.

  9. #268
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Presenting Percy’s owner Philip Reynolds has indicated that the Stayers’ Hurdle would be considered as a fallback option if circumstances were to conspire against them. The Gold Cup is plan A. If he were to miss the Red Mills Chase for any reason or if things don’t go to plan in that, then the Stayers’ Hurdle could come into the equation.

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  11. #269
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    Pinch o' salt for me. If he can run the stayers he will run in the gold cup

  12. #270
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    What tactics will they use on frodon tomorrow?

    If they take him out of his rhythm and try ensure he gets the trip, i think he will be surely beaten
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    I was very impressed with Valtor last time out. See if he can handle the step up in class.

  14. #272
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    Frodon and Bryony are a match made in heaven..

    She is a West Country Frankie Dettori, great for tv, racing and all who enjoy it.

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  16. #273
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Frodon impressed me a heap today

    Still don't think he can win a gold cup but what a smashing horse he is
    Last edited by granger; 26th January 2019 at 4:51 PM.
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  17. #274
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    Thoroughly admirable horse and jockey.

    On paper they had 8lb in hand on the placed horses so it will be interesting to see what the handicapper makes of it.
    The older I get the better I was.

  18. #275
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Trip always an issue. No bearing on the Gold Cup.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  19. #276
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    It was a brilliant ride, fabulous to watch. He was idling in front but not sure about getting the GC trip and think he might be 'bullied' out of it.

  20. #277
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by G-G View Post
    It was a brilliant ride, fabulous to watch. He was idling in front but not sure about getting the GC trip and think he might be 'bullied' out of it.
    Rail movements mean they ran an extra 151 yards today, taking the overall distance to 3m 1f 207y, not that short of the Gold Cup trip which might end up being run on better ground.

    If Frodon was idling then the trip wouldn't be a worry. My worry would be that I'm not sure they went Gold Cup pace today.
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  22. #278
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Frodon won't get a soft lead on the big day.

  23. #279
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm not sure Frodon needs to lead. He just needs to be on his game on the day.
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  24. #280
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I mentioned elsewhere that maybe Frodon wasn't quite fit and I've read another race report in which Nicholls states openly the horse was short of full fitness.

    In the same report, Henderson says Terrefort blew up, which he "half-expected" but goes on to say he's not sure what race he'll run in at Cheltenham.

    I learned a long time ago that ratings don't win races and I'm by no means saying Frodon will win the Gold Cup but at least he's one step closer.
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