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Thread: The Road to the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    The Road to the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup

    Ok he may not make it and if he does he will be an 11yo but news from Tizzards Open Day is that Thistlecrack starts off in the Charlie Hall and all being well after that goes onto run in the Betfair Chase.

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    Is he starting off today?
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    The state of this thread. Don't forget everything we thought we knew about the 2018 Gold Cup went out the window on the day because of the ground. This race is not worth thinking about from a betting perspective until Thursday evening in March.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    The state of this thread. Don't forget everything we thought we knew about the 2018 Gold Cup went out the window on the day because of the ground. This race is not worth thinking about from a betting perspective until Thursday evening in March.
    You know the price of everything and the value of nothing.
    "And still they gazed and still the wonder grew. That one small head could carry all he knew."

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    Can't have Presenting Percy, and can't see anything improving too much to trouble the too 2 of last year.

    I'd say Might Bite at this early stage, but not strong enough to start chipping away at any prices just yet.
    Last edited by Double J; 27th August 2018 at 11:49 PM.

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    Might Bite is the Wayward Lad of his generation.

    I love him as I loved Wayward Lad but will never back him to win a Gold Cup.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Classic case of ground being key. Might Bite would have won on better ground.

    Can he come back even on better ground and go one better, I have my doubts.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Can't have Presenting Percy, and can't see anything improving too much to trouble the too 2 of last year.

    Why?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Can't have Presenting Percy, and can't see anything improving too much to trouble the too 2 of last year.
    Can't see why you wouldn't
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

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    Slim is correct is so far as it's crazy to back anything at this stage unless you're building your own book. However, discussion on these races is what keeps this place going so...

    Statistically, I can't have Might Bite at all.
    The last 10yo to win a Gold Cup was Cool Dawn in 1998. It was at his first attempt and his death earlier this year means that no horse still alive won a Gold Cup at 10. The race is always very hard which is why winners are often unable to defend their crown and why so few horses improve after their first attempt. There is only a small chance that Might Bite will be an improved horse next March so you're banking on him getting ground that is claimed to be more suitable. Apart from that being far from certain, the same argument goes for a younger horse in Road To Respect who, as a 7yo, is also likely to have more improvement in him.
    Also, I can't find any horse winning the RSA as an 8yo that went on to win a Gold Cup although some will argue that Tied Cottage should have.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    The state of this thread. Don't forget everything we thought we knew about the 2018 Gold Cup went out the window on the day because of the ground. This race is not worth thinking about from a betting perspective until Thursday evening in March.
    Get off my fvcking thread then.............until Thursday evening in March

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    From RP

    The Tizzards are eyeing a two-pronged attack on jump racing's triple crown, with reigning Gold Cup hero Native River and a rejuvenated Thistlecrack set for a first career clash in the Betfair Chase at Haydock.
    A million-pound bonus has been offered by Jockey Club Racecourses for the last three seasons if a horse can win the Betfair Chase at Haydock on November 24, the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day and the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March, and the Tizzard team are eyeing Haydock as a likely starting point for Native River, who has made a full recovery from a minor injury he encountered towards the end of last season.
    The eight-year-old was absent from the first two legs of the jumps triple crown, sidestepping Haydock and Kempton for a lower grade assignment in Newbury's Denman Chase before his victory over Might Bite at the Cheltenham Festival five months ago.

    Joe Tizzard, assistant and son to trainer Colin, said: "The main aim is to get him to the Gold Cup, last year we couldn't really run him much as he had an injury at the end of the season before.
    "We will likely start him at Haydock for the Betfair Chase, and if he won that then we would be tempted to go for the million-pound bonus. We'd then have to think about going to Aintree or Punchestown.
    "If you win at Haydock then it certainly has to come into the equation, there's a lot of time between the races so it is very doable – it's not easy though. We'll have to play it by ear but I would imagine he'll start back in the Betfair Chase."
    Thistlecrack has been on a recovery mission since losing his unbeaten record to the ill-fated Many Clouds in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham 19 months ago. The ten-year-old showed glimpses of his former self when fourth in the King George last time, a race he won in 2016, but he missed a Gold Cup clash with Native River after suffering a stress fracture in January.
    The four-time Grade 1-winning hurdler has not been seen since finishing in midfield behind Might Bite at Kempton, and the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby on November 3 is a possible target.
    Tizzard, speaking at the yard's annual charity open day, added: “Thistlecrack is a little bit older now so things have got to start to happen for him. We'll get him out early and get some runs into him, he'll start in the Charlie Hall first and then we'd have a look at the million-pound bonus."

    The former rider added: “Although we don't like them to clash, there are only so many races to run them in and they are both rated highly enough to deserve to run in those races. “They have both been in lovely form since we've had them back. They had their summer breaks and both came in around the middle of June. They're going through the motions well.
    “We couldn't be happier with them, especially Thistlecrack, he is fully over his little problems last season and we're now hoping to have a full and successful campaign with him.”
    Native River is a general 8-1 chance to land back-to-back Gold Cups, while Thistlecrack is priced at 20-1.
    Although it has been more than five months since Native River outpointed Might Bite at Cheltenham, his owners Anne and Garth Broom still enjoy watching the race.
    The couple visited Colin Tizzard's Dorset yard for the annual bank holiday open day, where the general public got a chance to meet the stable stars and see the Gold Cup trophy – all proceeds were in aid of charities.

    Garth Broom, whose horses run under the name Brocade Racing, said: “Plan A is Haydock at this point and we'll certainly be thinking about the million pounds if he is lucky enough to win the Betfair Chase. For us the Gold Cup is the main aim. “Winning the Gold Cup was a little bit surreal, it was a dream come true and it takes some sinking in. Even now when we watch the DVD we suddenly think, 'This is the Gold Cup'. We have achieved our goals and if we could win it again it would be amazing.”
    Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 28th August 2018 at 1:33 PM.

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    Might Bite is a steering-job if the ground isn’t Soft/Heavy.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 28th August 2018 at 2:07 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Might Bite is a steering-job if the ground isn’t Soft/Heavy.
    I don't like the tough race he got last year

    Plus he will likely have a soft prep - madness to miss a KG with him
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

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    Cantered all over everything, winner included, last time, but was outstayed on the ground. Don’t think he had a hard race at all myself, PJ - he won easy at Aintree next time out.

    Nothing beats him in a Gold Cup on quicker going, imo.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Cantered all over everything, winner included, last time, but was outstayed on the ground. Don’t think he had a hard race at all myself, PJ - he won easy at Aintree next time out.

    Nothing beats him in a Gold Cup on quicker going, imo.

    There is something with him that doesn't lure me in Nick - Maybe teh race wasn't an absolute grueller but nothing else could live with them

    If they don't go for the triple race series with him, they are messing around

    The Aintree race was **** poor in fairness
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

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    The Aintree race is one that many a fancied runner has been chinned in, so I always take notice when one follows up.
    Alba Gu Brath!

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    Must say i am with Slim also re ground; too many times the ground has changed in 24 hours from okay to awful.
    Presenting Percy on the Forgive n Forget / Little Owl route to Gold Cup and it would be a story for the ages .
    Love the build up as always.

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    Of course it''s impossible to predict the ground on Gold Cup Day next March, but I'm with Grassy. Might Bite is the most likely winner if we have good to soft or better.

    I hear what you saying with regards the stats Archie. I'm a big stats man myself. What I'd ask you though is how many runs/runs over fences previous winners have had? Miles on the clock is the key here not age per se. My feeling is Henderson has really looked after Might Bite because he sees him as special. It's worth comparing him to Bob's Worth for example, and seeing how their careers have differed, and in Bob's Worth we're also talking about a Gold Cup winner. Henderson has campaigned Might Bite as though he's a much better horse. If we'd had better ground in March Might Bite would be a Gold Cup winner and you'd be including him in your list of probable winners.

    Native River was a good winner last year, with him and Might Bite running the field ragged. I think he's the most vulnerable of the front three in the betting though. If it's good ground he's vulnerable to Might Bite and Presenting Percy and if it's soft he'd still be vulnerable to Percy. I love the horse, he's done me many favours already, but if the big three turn up fit I can't see me backing him. It feels as though it's better to concentrate on the Might Bite and any newcomers.

    I do agree with others that it's not a one horse race though. You have to respect the chances of Presenting Percy. He's done nothing wrong, the RSA has produced plenty of winners, and his liking for Cheltenham is there for all to see, and of course we're likely to see Balko de Flos, and perhaps even Waiting Patiently if RJ gets him fit and gets past her mental block.

    Dutching Mite Bite and Presenting Percy is probably the sensible antepost play though. You've got to think at least one of them will get there fit and well, and if so I'd fully expect to be collecting. And whilst I'm not putting them in the same lofty category, there's some similarity to Kauto and Denman in their physique and running style. I reckon we could be served up a real treat. Maybe it's too early to be thinking this far ahead, but also I just wonder if Pat Kelly may run Mall Dini to ensure it becomes a real stamina test? If that were the case I would possibly switch allegiances and top up on Percy on the day rather than Might Bite.
    Last edited by Maruco; 29th August 2018 at 9:21 AM.

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    I think we can all agree that the going had a major effect on last season's race. It allowed Native River to overcome a couple of the major stats:
    - two to five runs that season (9/10).
    - no more than ten starts over fences (8/10).

    Might Bite may have been looked after but he's now had 11 runs over fences and will presumably have 2 or 3 more before the Gold Cup. I'd therefore be doubtful about the low mileage argument and coupled with the age factor I think that, 6 months out, he's far too short in the betting.

    I'm fairly confident that the winner will come from last year's novices. Presenting Percy has, in the main, been impressive but I have this nagging feeling that he's a proper stayer and might get done for toe. A worthy favourite at the moment but the prices aren't going to change much until November so single figure prices about any horse just don't work for me.
    The older I get the better I was.

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