Despite all the hype and noise about where Samcro will end up, surely logic will prevail? It wouldn't be usual for the Brother Grimm to stay over hurdles when they see him as a future Gold Cup horse so, despite a bit of recent airtime, the Champion Hurdle can't be the way they'll go. Also if they choose to wait and run in a graded hurdle to find out, they would be late starting him and thereby put him at a disadvantage over fences compared to the other best novices around, who will surely be doing the usual and accumulating fencing experience. Also which is the race they most want to win? It's not the Champion Hurdle, it's the Gold Cup. If they delay he'll be 9 at least when he gets his first crack. Given the modus operandi and the horse they've got, surely they'd want him there as an 8 year old? I would.
So lets assume he goes novice chasing. Why would they risk him in an Arkle? Surely he'd be vulnerable to a novice with more speed? And also why would they risk stretching him out to the RSA trip when they don't need to yet, particularly when he's shown all his best form over hurdles over the intermediate trip. He's also bred to appreciate a trip. The Brothers Grimm also always say they target the most winnable races with their novices. If so, and there's no change of mind, The Arkle and RSA would set a challenge against a different set of novices than those he beat over hurdles last season, whereas in the JLT he'll likely face Black Op again as his biggest challenger. By being clear early they will also force the hand of the other big stables. Quite rightly others will run scared, Willie and Ruby included, and they will also think about their most winnable chances. If Samcro is targeted at the JLT, it won't be that race will it, whereas Trainers may see him as more vulnerable in the Arkle or the RSA and take him on.
I've heard counter arguments that suggest that Gordon's strength in depth in his novices will almost force them to either stay over hurdles or go for the Arkle. Utter tosh. Sure it'll cross their minds and they'll debate it, but Samcro is easily their best horse and ultimately they'll make a plan for him, and the rest will fit in around it.
When you follow all the logic through and push comes to shove, then surely they can only tell Gordon to go down the JLT route with him can't they?
Last edited by Maruco; 6th September 2018 at 9:05 AM.
Bomb-proof logic. For mischief's sake, now watch him hit the deck in his first two attempts over fences....
I'm only half kidding. I just had a little twinkle when he fluffed his lines at Punchestown that it may not map out straightforwardly with this horse.
As I say, nothing more than a feeling.
Last edited by Ivantheterrible; 6th September 2018 at 9:41 AM.
Early championship Races - First Thoughts
Arkle - Paloma Blue
JLT - Samcro
RSA - Santini
They are all obviously really open races at this stage but I don't see as many immediate fancies as I normally would at this time of year
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
Samcro is out to 10/1 for the JLT, does this mean they are considering staying hurdling ?
Yes I noticed that tis morning ,do Paddy Power know something we don't because they are 6pts higher than anyone else.
Anyway has there been any news regarding If The Cap Fits , who would be of interest to me if he is fit and well and gong novice chasing.
Maybe not a horse many on here will know but looks like Judkin is going straight over fences and may possibly have left Jimmy Mangan's yard
Won his point and his bumper with ease
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
2017diary (12th September 2018)
Glad Gordon's clarified the Samcro position
"He'll be back over hurdles or fences, something like that"
Decent race tomorrow at Listowel. 3 horses at the top of the market I wouldn't be surprised to see in the 4 miler.
Interesting little race at Warwick Friday with entries for Jenkins, Maria's Benefit and Divine Bere
Walkover for Desirable Court. Deary me.
14 in the Novice Chase at Newton Abbott next Friday including
Jenkins
Lough Derg Spirit
Maria’s Benefit
Mont des Avaloirs
Vision des Flos
Bags Groove
Divin Bere
Flying Tiger
Maruco (7th October 2018)
GE on Samcro
"It's a pity we didn't stand up in Punchestown as if he'd gone and won that I'd say we'd definitely be going the Champion Hurdle route."
On his preferred route, Elliott added: "I'd love to win a Champion Hurdle, but I only train the horse, I don't own him. I'll have to talk to the lads and see what they want to do.
"The way he jumps a hurdle you'd say chasing is going to be his game down the road, but it's not easy coming across a Champion Hurdle horse.
"I'd love to win a Champion Hurdle, that's all I can say."
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
I doubt that Gordon has a vote. A bit like the election in Dunny-on-the-Wold.
The older I get the better I was.
Master Tommytucker out for the season. Pisser.
Delta Work out at Down Royal tomorrow.