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Thread: Novice Chasers 2018/2019

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    Black Op goes chasing

    [FONT="]He’s gave Samcro something to think about then put up a tough performance to win at Aintree. He’s schooled over fences, he's a great jumper. He’ll get 3m but probably start over 2m4f - we’re excited by him!”[/FONT]
    Samcro -Arkle
    Black Op - JLT
    RSA - Next Dest

    One I had marked down after Cheltenham, Santini worries me though in the RSA

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  3. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    Prefer the Footpad bet of those 2
    Do they allow them in a double?!

    To be honest though I'm not keen on either bet. It's a long old season, and both Willie and Gordon often go to the well once to often at the end of the season.

  4. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Samcro -Arkle
    Black Op - JLT
    RSA - Next Dest

    One I had marked down after Cheltenham, Santini worries me though in the RSA
    Despite all the hype and noise about where Samcro will end up, surely logic will prevail? It wouldn't be usual for the Brother Grimm to stay over hurdles when they see him as a future Gold Cup horse so, despite a bit of recent airtime, the Champion Hurdle can't be the way they'll go. Also if they choose to wait and run in a graded hurdle to find out, they would be late starting him and thereby put him at a disadvantage over fences compared to the other best novices around, who will surely be doing the usual and accumulating fencing experience. Also which is the race they most want to win? It's not the Champion Hurdle, it's the Gold Cup. If they delay he'll be 9 at least when he gets his first crack. Given the modus operandi and the horse they've got, surely they'd want him there as an 8 year old? I would.

    So lets assume he goes novice chasing. Why would they risk him in an Arkle? Surely he'd be vulnerable to a novice with more speed? And also why would they risk stretching him out to the RSA trip when they don't need to yet, particularly when he's shown all his best form over hurdles over the intermediate trip. He's also bred to appreciate a trip. The Brothers Grimm also always say they target the most winnable races with their novices. If so, and there's no change of mind, The Arkle and RSA would set a challenge against a different set of novices than those he beat over hurdles last season, whereas in the JLT he'll likely face Black Op again as his biggest challenger. By being clear early they will also force the hand of the other big stables. Quite rightly others will run scared, Willie and Ruby included, and they will also think about their most winnable chances. If Samcro is targeted at the JLT, it won't be that race will it, whereas Trainers may see him as more vulnerable in the Arkle or the RSA and take him on.

    I've heard counter arguments that suggest that Gordon's strength in depth in his novices will almost force them to either stay over hurdles or go for the Arkle. Utter tosh. Sure it'll cross their minds and they'll debate it, but Samcro is easily their best horse and ultimately they'll make a plan for him, and the rest will fit in around it.

    When you follow all the logic through and push comes to shove, then surely they can only tell Gordon to go down the JLT route with him can't they?
    Last edited by Maruco; 6th September 2018 at 9:05 AM.

  5. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Despite all the hype and noise about where Samcro will end up, surely logic will prevail? It wouldn't be usual for the Brother Grimm to stay over hurdles when they see him as a future Gold Cup horse so, despite a bit of recent airtime, the Champion Hurdle can't be the way they'll go. Also if they choose to wait and run in a graded hurdle to find out, they would be late starting him and thereby put him at a disadvantage over fences compared to the other best novices around, who will surely be doing the usual and accumulating fencing experience. Also which is the race they most want to win? It's not the Champion Hurdle, it's the Gold Cup. If they delay he'll be 9 at least when he gets his first crack. Given the modus operandi and the horse they've got, surely they'd want him there as an 8 year old? I would.

    So lets assume he goes novice chasing. Why would they risk him in an Arkle? Surely he'd be vulnerable to a novice with more speed? And also why would they risk stretching him out to the RSA trip when they don't need to yet, particularly when he's shown all his best form over hurdles over the intermediate trip. He's also bred to appreciate a trip. The Brothers Grimm also always say they target the most winnable races with their novices. If so, and there's no change of mind, The Arkle and RSA would set a challenge against a different set of novices than those he beat over hurdles last season, whereas in the JLT he'll likely face Black Op again as his biggest challenger. By being clear early they will also force the hand of the other big stables. Quite rightly others will run scared, Willie and Ruby included, and they will also think about their most winnable chances. If Samcro is targeted at the JLT, it won't be that race will it, whereas Trainers may see him as more vulnerable in the Arkle or the RSA and take him on.

    I've heard counter arguments that suggest that Gordon's strength in depth in his novices will almost force them to either stay over hurdles or go for the Arkle. Utter tosh. Sure it'll cross their minds and they'll debate it, but Samcro is easily their best horse and ultimately they'll make a plan for him, and the rest will fit in around it.

    When you follow all the logic through and push comes to shove, then surely they can only tell Gordon to go down the JLT route with him can't they?
    Bomb-proof logic. For mischief's sake, now watch him hit the deck in his first two attempts over fences....

    I'm only half kidding. I just had a little twinkle when he fluffed his lines at Punchestown that it may not map out straightforwardly with this horse.

    As I say, nothing more than a feeling.
    Last edited by Ivantheterrible; 6th September 2018 at 9:41 AM.

  6. #45
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    Early championship Races - First Thoughts

    Arkle - Paloma Blue

    JLT - Samcro

    RSA - Santini

    They are all obviously really open races at this stage but I don't see as many immediate fancies as I normally would at this time of year
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

  7. #46
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    Samcro is out to 10/1 for the JLT, does this mean they are considering staying hurdling ?

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    Yes I noticed that tis morning ,do Paddy Power know something we don't because they are 6pts higher than anyone else.

    Anyway has there been any news regarding If The Cap Fits , who would be of interest to me if he is fit and well and gong novice chasing.

  9. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Samcro is out to 10/1 for the JLT, does this mean they are considering staying hurdling ?
    Let's hope not
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

  10. #49
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Maybe not a horse many on here will know but looks like Judkin is going straight over fences and may possibly have left Jimmy Mangan's yard

    Won his point and his bumper with ease
    Some people say heís the best since Arkle and thatís certainly true when you look at what heís done

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  12. #50
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    Glad Gordon's clarified the Samcro position

    "He'll be back over hurdles or fences, something like that"

  13. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Glad Gordon's clarified the Samcro position

    "He'll be back over hurdles or fences, something like that"
    Ingrate. At least he ruled out the flat...

  14. #52
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    Decent race tomorrow at Listowel. 3 horses at the top of the market I wouldn't be surprised to see in the 4 miler.

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