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Thread: Cheltenham - Wednesday - What are you backing?

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    Cheltenham - Wednesday - What are you backing?

    4/6
    7/2
    7/1
    11/10
    10/11
    7/1
    2/1

    I'm note sure I've ever seen so many hotpots on the Wednesday of the festival. Not sure where you find an angle tomorrow bar the two big handicaps.

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    1.30 Envoi Allen
    3.30 Defi Du Seuil
    4.10 Tiger Roll
    5.30 Appreciate It

    Coral have opened the bidding on the good things acca tomorrow at 21.53 (20.53/1).

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    Biggest bet of tomorrow for me is Dame DC in the Coral Cup.

    Could be a good day for Barry tomorrow. Also like Aramax in the last. Think you might get a price about Appreciate It tomorrow, especially if Chacun gets beat.

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    Have 5/2 on Envoi after Gordo's shenanigans last week and around average odds of 3/1 on Defi with various bets.
    No other bets yet but going to find Tiger Roll hard to resist.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    1.30 Envoi Allen
    3.30 Defi Du Seuil
    4.10 Tiger Roll
    5.30 Appreciate It

    Coral have opened the bidding on the good things acca tomorrow at 21.53 (20.53/1).
    Did the treble without TR about 30 mins ago. Like Easysland a lot, and reckon they down tools on Tiger Roll if it remotely looks like he will have a race (acknowledge he maybe just fu*cking wins).
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    what makes you think they'd down tools grass? saving him for the nash? not sure they'd have that thinking to begin with for a race at cheltenham, let alone the fact that aintree might well not even happen this year.

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    I reckon they’d be prepared to sacrifice everything on the altar of a third Nash.

    The O’Learys are professional curmudgeons - and very good they are at it - but they’re also egotistical co*ck-knockers too, and a third Nash (imo) means way more to them, than they’d ever be prepared to let on. This may be the Festival, but it is a punt endeavour, set against a potential Aintree treble.

    Of course, this only has relevance if something can get TR into a race - something I happen to think Easysland might be capable of.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 11th March 2020 at 12:22 AM. Reason: Made sure the word “co*ck”’was self-evident.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Does Tiger Roll need to complete the race to actually qualify for the National, or is it just once he starts the race?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    Does Tiger Roll need to complete the race to actually qualify for the National, or is it just once he starts the race?
    Always complete

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    Apart from the 4 Acca,

    No bet
    Copperhead L15ew
    Top Moon L15ew
    No bet
    No bet
    Palladium L15ew / Gaelach ew
    Queens Brook L15ew


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    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    Does Tiger Roll need to complete the race to actually qualify for the National, or is it just once he starts the race?
    Horses do not qualify because they have either not run over fences this season or not yet finished in the first four in a race over 23 and a half furlongs in their career.

    So long as he lines up and starts the race, there on after it doesn't matter if he pulls up, he still meets the qualifying criteria!

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Biggest bet of tomorrow for me is Dame DC in the Coral Cup.
    DDC at 10/1 is my main bet in the Coral Cup now that my other A/P bets (all NRNB so no harm done) came out. Always a quality race, though.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    I reckon Robbie Power will be wanting a winner today!

    Chelters
    1.30 Thebigbreakaway
    2.10 Battleoverdoyen
    2.50 Black Tears
    3.30 Defi Du Seuil
    4.10 Easysland

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    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    I don't like the RSA today at all

    Minella is a very weak fav based on his fencing to date. His only big plus is he is a certainty to stay
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    I don't like the RSA today at all

    Minella is a very weak fav based on his fencing to date. His only big plus is he is a certainty to stay
    In terms of it being top class, I probably agree PJ. I think it's way more competitive than the majority seem to. There's very very little between 6 or 7 of them imo.

    I'm playing the bigger prices here and I think as I look at it right now, Slate House E/W (4 places Hills) represents the best value.

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    14:10 RSA Insurance Novices Chase

    Minella Indo (current fav) & Copperhead. They’re my 2nd a 3rd rated and fit various trends. The one I have top rated just ahead of Minella Indo in terms of pure form is Champ which is currently 2nd fav, but I’ve gone against it because a significant negative for Champ in the trends is that it fell lto and in the last 19 runs of the race none of the winners have done that and the worst pos they've had lto is 3rd and that's only one of them. Will be interesting to see if that stat holds true. Might have to do a break even bet on Champ though cos of it's rating, dunno I'll see.

    Cheltenham RSA v1.JPG
    Last edited by pawras; 11th March 2020 at 11:34 AM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm wondering if The Glancing Queen could be the bet of the day at around 16/1.

    I vaguely recall King saying she was unlucky last year and he's managed to keep her bumper status for this year. Last year's race was phenomenal and, in theory, she could be 10lbs better with age. How far would we expect Envoi Allen or Abacadabras to win this year's race and what price would we expect them to be?

    In the meantime, here's where the rest of my thoughts are heading:

    Race Main fancies Possibles Longshots Comments
    1.30 Ballymore Sp John Easywork
    Son Of Camas
    EA looks a good thing but not my price; read/heard somewhere that SJ is thought a ‘monster’ or something like that. Only 11/10 in mkt w/o EA; Easywork & SOC just big prices given connections.
    1.10 RSA Allaho
    Champ
    Can’t see past these two. Took Allaho A/P a couple of weeks ago but expect Champ to improve a lot. Will back him too.
    2.50 Coral Cup Dame De Compagnie Burrows Edge
    Franco De Port
    Kilfenora
    Golan Fortune
    Took 10s DDC the other day, been waiting for it; also thought BE was not meant to win last time but the race fell in its lap, another trained all year for this; Franco De Port to cover the bets, just in case, profile suggests its highly regarded. Kilf was a lot shorter a couple of weeks ago, 7lbs claimer the reason for drift? Boy has good record for shrewd trainers; Golan Fortune will appreciate testing pace for shrewd operator.
    3.30 Champion Chse Chacun Pour Soi
    Defi Du Seuil
    Dynamite Dollars Not betting front two. Happy with ew bet on D Dollars at 20/1.
    4.10 X-Country No interest Tiger Roll miles clear on ratings. Good thing at evens? Sickness insurance on MBite?
    4.50 Juv Hcap Hdle Mick Pastor Recent Revelations I usually only take potshots at this race as there’s no way of being certain about the form. RR looks too long at 20s given trainer-jockey combo (Elliott-Russell). Backed MP for Triumph so have to back it here.
    5.30 Bumper The Glancing Queen One True King Vaguely recall King saying she was unlucky last year. In theory should be 10lbs better a year later. NTD tends not to tilt at windmills in the better bumper races, jockey booking suggests big improvement expected. Hoping for 100+/1.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Envoi, and Mossy Fen ew
    Copperhead
    Birchdale ew
    Defi
    Tiger
    Thyme White ew
    Adrimel ew

    Had Honeysuckle and a couple of 2nds with Abracadabras and Lord du Mesnil, so hoping to be on the right side of the close ones today.


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    Cheltenham 2.10
    Champ 7/2 (NAP)

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    Quote Originally Posted by pawras View Post
    14:10 RSA Insurance Novices Chase

    Minella Indo (current fav) & Copperhead. They’re my 2nd a 3rd rated and fit various trends. The one I have top rated just ahead of Minella Indo in terms of pure form is Champ which is currently 2nd fav, but I’ve gone against it because a significant negative for Champ in the trends is that it fell lto and in the last 19 runs of the race none of the winners have done that and the worst pos they've had lto is 3rd and that's only one of them. Will be interesting to see if that stat holds true. Might have to do a break even bet on Champ though cos of it's rating, dunno I'll see.

    Cheltenham RSA v1.JPG
    You can't let a silly stat stop you from betting the classiest horse in the race.

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