I'm left totally underwhelmed by this weekend's racing.
I'm not sure we saw any Festival winners.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Impressed by Coolanly on Friday, The Glancing Queen in yesterday’s bumper & Lalor today.
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Agree with that too. He was giving Josies Order 15lbs and usually comes on a ton for first run.
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Lalor was incredibly impressive and considering he has traditionally been far better with racing behind him is a very exciting prospect.
I would however have today's bumper winner in Punchestown well ahead o f The Glancing Quenn, squated aside a very useful animal with the minimum of fuss today.
Hard to gauge bumper horses and the form lines they leave behind. Kings horse was it must be said was making her debut and ran around up the hill. Elliott’s had a run previous to today. We also know The Glancing Queen handles the track well.
Lalor looks to have improved fir the sight of a fence and strengthened up incredibly over the summer. Shades of Sprinter Sacre in how he took to the larger obstacles today.
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Last edited by Kauto Abu; 18th November 2018 at 11:52 PM.
Oh completely agree re bumpers and to be honest at the current prices you would have to go with The Glancing Queen but on the bare visuals and impression I would give the nod to Elliots horse. Anyone backing it at the current price is nuts though!!
Well, you wont see Malone Road (a stone better+ animal than the cheltenham race imo) until Cheltenham. Elliott felt he had more as good from his interview with Gary O'Brien. I think Malone Road sets a strong standard and won't be far away from the head of the market come the festival.
Desert Orchid (19th November 2018)
This weekend last year produced 4 Festival winners - Presenting Percy, Shattered Love, Coo Star Sivola and Summerville Boy - although none of them actually won. No surprise really in that the best horses wouldn't be fully tuned yet and the handicap winners in March are currently protecting their mark.
The older I get the better I was.
Spot on Archie Presenting Percy had run 3 times before Xmas last season and 4 times the year before that.
Once trainers think they have a real chance of that big prize it changes everything and training patterns change.
That said I reckon Lalor has a right chance of winning the Arkle
Formely Fist of Fury
Lalor was visually impressive but, while 10/1 after the race was a fair price, I'd want to see the form franked by the beaten horses before getting too carried away.
Voix Du Reve, on the other hand, has beaten decent yardsticks and isn't being talked of as the stable's best Arkle prospect.
The older I get the better I was.
It was good to meet some fellow forumites at the weekend. Frontrunner, Digger and Grasshopper. (Bizarre how the latter pair and I both have mutual friends!!).
Part one of Lydia Hislop's Road To Cheltenham was published on 24th November last year.
The older I get the better I was.
This was the early March edition:
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...ltenham/143837
More useful for the discussion rather than the actual tips. She's so much better at writing than broadcasting.
The older I get the better I was.
I wonder if not seeing most of it live or not winning as much as anticipated was behind this feeling. Looking back through the form and working out some figures, I'm seeing some really good performances.
Friday started really positively. I was in town and had to go to the bookies to see the first race. When The Young Master won I knew I was covered for the day and was genuinely anticipating further gains with A Hare Breath, Jenkins and Double Treasure, the last-named of which I could not see out of the frame and a strong bet. AHB did not run at all well, never looking anywhere near the trainer's reported high opinion of him. Jenkins looked over-priced and did well to get to within a couple of lengths of the winner after losing ten lengths from the last ditch to the bottom of the hill. I wonder if the course doesn't suit him. Double Treasure pulled up. My ratings for the winners of the races suggest Jenkins is a better horse than Count Meribel and Double Treasure would have beaten Coolanly but A Hare Breath would need to have improved by nearly as much as Bun Doran did to have beaten him. Still, he should have been a clear second on his best form and a place accumulator could have been on.
Saturday should have been a good day too. As I noted elsewhere, my rating for Kalondra says he would have won the big race. Incidentally, I was on the phone on Monday night and was asked by someone who had just watched the race if I thought Kalondra's jockey's instructions were to ride the horse with as much confidence as possible and not to worry about his position in the race as he was going to win regardless so could afford to win by as little as possible. Looking at the race again, that might make sense. He wasn't at all far behind Mister Whitaker and Guitar Pete when he blundered Fehily off. Had he followed Mister Whitaker through the rest of the race it would not have surprised me if he'd left that one for dead up the hill. This makes me think I was right to declare during the week that Kalondra was a 2/1 shot for the race. Earlier on the day, Vicente was my main bet in the race won by Rock The Kasbah but my figures suggest he'd have done well to have beaten Royal Vacation, let alone the winner. I genuinely thought Vicente was the most likely of the three to run his race but there you go. That's punting for you. I probably have Sweet Home Chicago's rating all wrong but it did not appear to me that he was ridden to win. Whether that was deliberate or down to incompetence I don't know but a big forward move when the pace was picking up over on the far side couldn't have helped. Although the winner went up 13lbs my rating for SHC would still have seen him win but as I say that figure is probably flawed. Speedo Boy and Mellow Ben in the next just about recouped the day's outlay and it was more with relief than enjoyment that I watched that race.
I had a lot to do on Sunday and only had bets in the Greatwood and a freebie on Claimantakinforgan in the first TV race. Fortunately one of the Greatwood bets was Nietzsche so that managed to get my head in front over the weekend but I was probably still suffering from the disappointment of Kalondra.
My figures say The Young Master, Bun Doran, Baron Alco, Frodon and Kalondra all remain ahead of the handicapper. We won't know until next Tuesday how the assessor has treated Sunday's winners but I'll be surprised if the Greatwood sees any more than a 5lbs rise for the winner. I think it was a substandard race and if Verdana Blue had run to her Elite form she'd have hacked up.
We shall see.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 22nd November 2018 at 5:56 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Double Treasure was pulled up owing to a breathing problem