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Thread: Michael Avenatti

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    He has had to bring out a policy statement because he stands for nothing bar gaining media attention by being anti Trump. This won't win over progressive supporters never mind Trump voters. Did the last election not tell us that the electorate is tired of non entities like him? He stands for nothing but anti Trump.
    I think you've got a bad misread there

    He's been forced/ persuaded (doesn't matter which) to outline some of his broad policy positions. Now he has to tread a bit of a fine line. Being seen to be starting a personal campaign for 2020 in the shadow of the mid-terms is something of a no/no so these statement can't really be detailed. That comes later when people start asking him questions like how is he going to pay for it? etc Now obviously that's the sort of exchange he wants to begin, because that starts to legitimise the ideas and starts a conversation etc. What he's done is draw up some thoughts which allows people to place him somewhere on the political spectrum by way of his influences.

    It's perfectly obvious to anyone reading his 2 sides of A4 that he's on Bernie's platform. There isn't a lot between them in three of Bernie's touchstone policy areas like health, education, campaign finance reform. In addition there's overlap on other areas. The only area that appears to be a bit opaque is international trade. Sometime in 2019 Bernie Sanders and Michael Avenatti are going to need to have a chat if this continues

    Bernie's base is worth about 30% of the Democrat caucus. That's enough to win early primaries in a crowded field (which is what they're expecting). It's the same thing that Trump benefited from in a field of 16. If you win those early primaries you get momentum, and as candidates begin to fall by the wayside your own vote starts to pick some of them up.

    Most people's first exposure will be through the debates. There can be little doubt that Avenatti is articulate and a smooth talker. Provided he's able to demonstrate a command of the policy detail, he'll do well. Where he's going to be vulnerable is a tendency to talk about himself (not necessarily a barrier in American politics) and lose his temper. He's also going to need to survive some digging into his past which isn't squeaky clean

    Avenatti is 100/1 with Ladbrokes, Bernie Sanders is 14/1 with Coral. Of the two, I'd say Avenatti is the more likely to run on that platform right now
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  2. #22
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    The Sanders bandwagon whipped-up at their last election strikes me as similar to that of the Corbyn bandwagon whipped-up at ours: youngsters somewhat smitten by the (now) unusual sight of two ageing and greying leftists with a long history of activism taking on 'the establishment'

    If both had donned berets we might now have President Sanders and Prime Minister Corbyn...possibly

    My view is that their novelty will have worn off by the next elections and capricious, naiive youth will look elsewhere; where I've no idea

    Sanders will be nearly 80 in 2020 won't he?

  3. #23
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    We live in a world now (again) where lying is the norm and where politicians are once again at the vanguard of this malevolent historical regurgitation.

    The midterms are still 10 weeks away. Trump is drowning drip by drip in the stinking cesspool of his moral turpitude. The flailing is a dead give away. His base is what it is, not enough, especially in the face of the fierce headwinds, from energized progressives to retired admirals calling him out for the bum he is. Still, the so called disenfranchised whites in America aren't going to go quietly in the night.

    These days American politics is more like the WWE on steroids, anything goes. I do however not see Sanders as a candidate, more like some sort of eminence grise for whoever makes the grade on the day.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  4. #24
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    I think you've got a bad misread there

    He's been forced/ persuaded (doesn't matter which) to outline some of his broad policy positions. Now he has to tread a bit of a fine line. Being seen to be starting a personal campaign for 2020 in the shadow of the mid-terms is something of a no/no so these statement can't really be detailed. That comes later when people start asking him questions like how is he going to pay for it? etc Now obviously that's the sort of exchange he wants to begin, because that starts to legitimise the ideas and starts a conversation etc. What he's done is draw up some thoughts which allows people to place him somewhere on the political spectrum by way of his influences.

    It's perfectly obvious to anyone reading his 2 sides of A4 that he's on Bernie's platform. There isn't a lot between them in three of Bernie's touchstone policy areas like health, education, campaign finance reform. In addition there's overlap on other areas. The only area that appears to be a bit opaque is international trade. Sometime in 2019 Bernie Sanders and Michael Avenatti are going to need to have a chat if this continues

    Bernie's base is worth about 30% of the Democrat caucus. That's enough to win early primaries in a crowded field (which is what they're expecting). It's the same thing that Trump benefited from in a field of 16. If you win those early primaries you get momentum, and as candidates begin to fall by the wayside your own vote starts to pick some of them up.

    Most people's first exposure will be through the debates. There can be little doubt that Avenatti is articulate and a smooth talker. Provided he's able to demonstrate a command of the policy detail, he'll do well. Where he's going to be vulnerable is a tendency to talk about himself (not necessarily a barrier in American politics) and lose his temper. He's also going to need to survive some digging into his past which isn't squeaky clean

    Avenatti is 100/1 with Ladbrokes, Bernie Sanders is 14/1 with Coral. Of the two, I'd say Avenatti is the more likely to run on that platform right now
    Where exactly do you think his support is going to come from? He's basically an unknown mouth piece. The only reason he has any relevance is because the media loves stories about people smacking Trump around the place. You find any support for him from progressive independent media.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 17th August 2018 at 11:21 PM.

  5. #25
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    Also people will really see through blatant virtue signalling like this.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8492801.html

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Also people will really see through blatant virtue signalling like this.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8492801.html
    No they won't. It's gone down very well and cuts a very favourable contrast with an inept government that's lost trace of the stolen children and a useless Senate that thinks all they have to do is visit a detention centre. Avenatti got a result (a small one) when the government can't figure out what they've done. He's petitioned to take custody of 58 next.

    So much winning
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Where exactly do you think his support is going to come from?
    I've answered that

    He's got a ready made platform, and he's going to add to it because he'll reach other demographics lake latinos, hispnaics, and white women. He's also younger and fresher faced than Bernie, and lets not forget that Bernie isn't even a Democrat, he's an 'independent'
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  8. #28
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    No they won't. It's gone down very well and cuts a very favourable contrast with an inept government that's lost trace of the stolen children and a useless Senate that thinks all they have to do is visit a detention centre. Avenatti got a result (a small one) when the government can't figure out what they've done. He's petitioned to take custody of 58 next.

    So much winning
    Even Vox has written negatively about his media exposure. The Democratic base will not get behind this guy, in fact they won't even take him seriously.

    https://www.vox.com/2018/5/7/1732657...term-elections

  9. #29
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    That's not a negative article, it's just repeating what I outlined a few posts ago about the dangers of been seen to push the 2020 run in the shadow of the mid terms. In event look at the first tow paragraphs.

    Stormy Daniels has dominated the domestic political news environment over the past week, with high-profile media appearances by Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani and Daniels’s attorney Michael Avenatti making headlines and leading the Sunday shows. Among dedicated Trump haters, that’s made Daniels and Avenatti stars. Jacob Weisberg at Slate hails the attorney as a “brilliant egomaniac who could bring Trump down” while TPM’s Josh Marshall hails his ability to keep Trump off balance and force him into mistakes. It states that he's the individual whose getting Trump off balance and forcing mistakes. How many other Democrats can claim that?

    Whether the party gets behind him is a moot point, they didn't get behind Bernie because he wasn't one of them. Avenatti is at least a paid party member. Also he's being inundated with requests to lead Democrat fundraisers. He contacted Iowa to ask if he could attend their event, they offered him the top of the bill speaking slot against other Senators. He put their ticket sales through the roof the moment he was confirmed. This weekend he's in Tampa accepting the same offer from Florida. Sunday, New Hampshire have booked him. Next week he's been asked to go back to Iowa

    Avenatti has a path but it depends on Bernie Sanders. If Bernie decides to pass the baton (and there's some indications he will, as he's acknowledged how draining a run is) then he's on Bernie's ticket, but with a wider generic appeal than Sanders. He's got about 25%-30% hard baked in, which is enough to win early primaries in fields of six or more

    I note Ladbrokes cut him 100 to 50 yesterday (still 80 with Hills, but they're an outlier). Right now, I'd say he's a more likely runner than Sanders, and Bernie is 14/1 on a very similar platform. The platform alone is going to secure a base level of support, the question is can he build on that? I expect him to, but organising a campaign is going to be whole different challenge.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  10. #30
    SlimChance
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    A couple of things. I'm saying that the Democratic progressive base will not get behind this guy, not the Democratic party. You won't find any progressive commentators that are excited about him. They see him for what he is, a media attention seeking whore. Predictit only has him listed at 35% to actually run. The anecdote to Trump will be someone that actually has clear policies and sell it with a clear message, not a blow in lawyer like Avenatti who is making up his beliefs on the fly. Voters just aren't going go buy it.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 18th August 2018 at 8:39 PM.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drone View Post
    The Sanders bandwagon whipped-up at their last election strikes me as similar to that of the Corbyn bandwagon whipped-up at ours: youngsters somewhat smitten by the (now) unusual sight of two ageing and greying leftists with a long history of activism taking on 'the establishment'

    If both had donned berets we might now have President Sanders and Prime Minister Corbyn...possibly

    My view is that their novelty will have worn off by the next elections and capricious, naiive youth will look elsewhere; where I've no idea

    Sanders will be nearly 80 in 2020 won't he?
    The 'youngsters' aren't the only ones voting Jeremy Corbyn as I'm sure you know. If you've been hit by the bedroom tax, if you work in a public service that has been cut to the bone, or maybe if just your happy to see an old school Labour politician running the party, (and I think many fall in to this later category), then it's not hard to say you'll vote for him. I kind of just wish he'd been running the party all along myself...maybe we wouldnt have gone into Iraq, maybe there'd have been no PFI of hospitals, etc.
    Last edited by Marb; 18th August 2018 at 8:22 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    The 'youngsters' aren't the only ones voting Jeremy Corbyn as I'm sure you know. If you've been hit by the bedroom tax, if you work in a public service that has been cut to the bone, or maybe if just your happy to see an old school Labour politician running the party, (and I think many fall in to this later category), then it's not hard to say you'll vote for him. I kind of just wish he'd been running the party all along myself...maybe we wouldnt have gone into Iraq, maybe there'd have been no PFI of hospitals, etc.
    Maybe there would have been 40 years of Conservative rule.

  13. #33
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    How much of the credit is Avenatti going to get for the Cohen revelations? I don't think Trump is in deep trouble yet but he needs to play smart from here. I was watching back documentaries about Nixon and its mad to think he'd have got away with it had he not been so paranoid and have people flip on him.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 22nd August 2018 at 1:17 PM.

  14. #34
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    Avenatti certainly gets a lot of credit in a lot of areas, but there are others involved too, not least of whom is the person who retains him, without her instruction to represent he'd be a spectator. There is also the journalist who first exposed the existence of Essential Consultants too, and whoever it was who seemed to have leaked Avenatti information about how Cohen was selling access to the President through Essential Consultants despite not having registered as a lobbyist

    I think it's worth remembering just who Michael Cohen is/ was at the start of 2018 though. Let's not forget that this was Trump's self-described Rottweiler. In certain New York circles Michael Cohen was a feared man following in the footsteps of Trump's previous personal attorneys, notably Roy Cohn and Jay Goldberg. Cohen had built a reputation for intimidation and bullying and some one who you didn't mess with. When the Stormy Daniels story first broke and she breached her DNA on sixty minutes, Cohen confidently predicted he was looking forward to taking a long holiday, a cruise I think he said, paid for with the $20m he was going to get from her after he bankrupted her in court.

    By contrast, Avenatti was quick to identify Cohen as the weak link in the Trump house of cards and attacked. Cohen he deduced had graduated near the bottom of his class from America's poorest law school. He didn't appear to have a client book, and so far as Avenatti could establish, hadn't successfully taken a case to trial in his life. His MO seemed to be sending out cease and desist notices and generally threatening Trump's creditors with legal action if they should ever try and get paid for the money he owed them

    Cohen continued to profess loyalty to Trump throughout, memorably saying that he'd "take a bullet for Mr Trump" which sparked Avenatti to quip that he "won't take a water balloon". Throughout all this most commentators were saying that the Trump/ Cohen bond was inseparable, it was Avenatti alone at the outset, who predicted that Cohen would be indicted and that Cohen would flip on Trump, and that Trump was particularly stupid for failing to realise the jeopardy he was exposing himself to

    I said remember who Michael Cohen was at the start of 2018, because by the end of it he's going to be in prison having pleaded guilty so far to charges that are likely to land him 3-5 years. He will be getting his holiday after all and as yet there's nothing in the charging document to say he's a co-operating witness either (despite this nonsense that Trump was spouting today). There is of course good reason for the FBI not to do a deal with him over the charges he's admitted to. The simple fact is they have the evidence. They don't need to enter a deal with him. It's an open and shut case. Cohen knows that. He hasn't got a leg to stand on.

    Returning to Avenatti's political positioning though, this Cohen/ Trump/ Stormy story is potentially going to run (don't rule out the other case of Broidy/ Bechard/ Davidson that Peter Stris is representing surfacing either). What this means for Avenatti is that he's going to be seen as someone landing punches on Trump throughout 2019. The other aspiring Democrat candidates won't. They don't have his opportunity. This is a platform unique to him. The most Kamala Harris can done is smile in a studio and explain why she's against regulating any IT giant that donates to her campaign. For that matter, all of the aspiring Democrat candidates are in the same boat and all will be reduced to clamouring to offer comment, but none will be seen as doing anything. Avenatti will begin to emerge as a doer, and they will be seen as talkers
    Last edited by Warbler; 24th August 2018 at 1:57 AM.
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

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  16. #35
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    Alan Wieselberg (Trump's CFO) and David Pecker been granted immunity from prosecution now by NYSD

    It's not clear to me if this is confined to the Cohen charges, or whether it's running deeper? Immunity isn't given out lightly. The FBI expect to get a return on their investment. These things normally take months to negotiate, but the bits and pieces are beginning to fall off

    For what it's worth, I've long suspected that Cohen (despite what Avenatti says) doesn't actually know as much about the real deep secrets of the Trump Organisation as people assume. Cohen was a limited Attorney and 'fixer'. He might know about some of Trump's questionable morality, and might have embarrassing stuff to offer up, but I doubt he was on inside of the serious business stuff. Weiselberg by contrast knows how the Trump Organisation is financed
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

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    In theory, this should make things easier for lower budget candidates from outside of the party inner sanctum. It's the establishment candidates who'll be losing their grip a little bit. They're supposed to be doing away with caucuses too and moving onto primaries, again this will help smaller campaigns who don't have the organisational infrastructure to get surrogates out to lobby for them in a caucus

    The big one Avenatti will come with Bernie and Elizabeth Warren, if both decline to run, (and ideally endorse him given that he's nearer to their platform than the other Dems) then he has a shot at it in a crowded field, as he should have a base in the early voting states. John Delany, (Maryland congressman) is already complaining that Avenatti eclipsed him at the Iowa wing ding.

    I think the other shrewdie could be Mikki Haley at 80/1. If the Trump Presidency implodes (and its possible) then there won't be many Republicans who'll escape the fall out unscathed. She might be one of the more likely given her ability to keep stepping over the bodies as they pile up around him
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  19. #38
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    Hills 80 into 33 now

    Admittedly it probbaly only takes £25 to move a price in what is likely to be a low liquidity and very immature market at this stage. Just announcing a run is normally enough to see a candidate installed at 50/1 regardless of who they are
    Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes

  20. #39
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warbler View Post
    Hills 80 into 33 now

    Admittedly it probbaly only takes £25 to move a price in what is likely to be a low liquidity and very immature market at this stage. Just announcing a run is normally enough to see a candidate installed at 50/1 regardless of who they are
    He is still massively irrelevant for my money. I'd lay 100s all day long. What does interest me is Beto O'Rourke being only 35% to beat Cruz in Texas. That is insanity. If he wins in November then I'm all in on him 2020.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 1st September 2018 at 1:31 AM.

  21. #40
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    Actually agree with Slim. Maybe the times they are a changin', again.
    Avenatti can be a good speer point lobbing Molotov Cocktails at Trump, but can see no way he comes within a planet of the nomination.

    Also like the Beto O'Rourke angle. I think his strategy of showing up in every county and talking issues and not backing down from his progressive beliefs is the right one. People are tired of hearing about Trump everybody pretty much has made up their mind about him.

    Maybe too soon for him this time around but Texas will eventually go Democrat.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

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