Texas has three very large cities and doesn't quite have the religious influences that some of the others do along the Gulf State, nor the number of backward rural areas
The demographic shift from California is one thing, the growth of an IT sector is another (although probably a product of the former) and of course its becoming more and more influenced by Hispanics/ Latinos (like Arizona). Traditionally they've proven reluctant to register but a whole load of them did in 2016 (many missing the deadline for the general election). They'll show up for the first time in 2018
O'Rourke needs to beat Cruz though. If he does, his star rises exponentially and he probably becomes the front runner. If he doesn't, then he's a gallant loser, but still remains a 'representative'. When was the last time any Presidential candidate used the House as a launchpad to win the Presidency? Has it ever been done even? It's hard enough doing it from the Senate. Only Kennedy and Obama have succeeded since the war, and you probably need to be young, charismatic and able to capture the zeitgeist to do so (O'Rourke is)
I think Cruz could be in trouble certainly. He hasn't necessarily alienated his base, but he's suffered erosion on them. The 'red hats' still think he's lyin' Ted who told the convention to vote with their conscience. His business backers have always been sceptical of him too for his repeated willingness to shut down congress.
The key is going to be voter enthusiasm, and unusually polling is showing that Democrats are more motivated to turn out in the mid-terms. I seem to think I read the other day that Raphael Cruz was calling for polling stations to be closed down to prevent turnout on his radio show (they're nervous). If it didn't mean risking the loss of the Senate, I half expect Trump wouldn't mind Cruz out the way. Certainly if Scott beats Nelson in Florida I suspect that's a trade that Trump would take
I'm not sure that the Republican losing the Senate necessarily does the damage to Trump that everyone thinks it will do though? With the loss of both houses, he's the only thing standing between the GOP and a meltdown. As the sole beacon they have left it might even cement his position within the GOP. The next two years are then bound to be embroiled with hearings and testimony and the American public will tire of it. A Democrat congress could end up getting the blame in 2020. It's not as if mid term waves haven't happened before and the incumbent President still won two years later
I'm fairly certain the Democrats aren't electing a elder statesman though. I sense the mood at the moment is to pass the torch. That rules out Biden, (despite what polls say at the moment) Warren, probably Bernie (who's an 'independent anyway) and anyone too closely linked to Schumer/ Pelosi. I'm not totally convinced that their primary voters are going to risk putting up a female candidate for Trump run over either (certainly Gillibrand). I can accept that Harris has a nicer air about her, but I think she's vulnerable on substance. What has she ever achieved? (not what jobs she has held) that's a different answer.
Last edited by Warbler; 2nd September 2018 at 1:57 AM.
Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes
Family in Texas were telling me in the summer, that countless thousands are migrating from California every year; principally due to the vast difference in property prices.
The story was backed-up by the brother-in-law who lives in LA, who confirmed Texas as the target destination for the 25-35 demographic. They cart their expertise (and their politics) in energy and IT (as Warbler pointed out) into a state where they can not only get a foot on the property-ladder, they can afford 3-4 bedroom pool-houses, for what they’d be paying in rent for a 1-bed apartment in LA, San Diego and San Francisco.
My cousin reckons there’s a very good chance Texas turns Blue in the near fiture.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
The latest Emerson poll has Cruz leading by 1pt
It's getting interesting
Trump is going to Texas soon to stage one of his Nuremburg type rallies. Avenatti (of all people) is going at the same time to run one alongside Trump's
It's not clear to me how this plays out
Beto O'Rourke has run a campaign aside of Trump and focused on Texan issues. I'm not sure he benefits from joining Avenatti's "Don't Mess With America" event (I understand don't mess with Texas was an anti-litter slogan from the 1970's incidentally and not the spirit of the Alamo as it seems to have become today)
At one level Texan Democrats seem to be energised by the fact that they've got someone taking the fight right back to Trump and giving it out. At another level they're nervous that the Avenatti event could over shadow O'Rourke, could energise Republicans, and could backfire if it fails to get the crowd
Can O'Rourke risk identifying with Avenatti? Does he benefit from using Avenatti as attack dog without exposing himself to any associations if it blows up. Might Avenatti cost O'Rourke votes doing this? If Avenatti pulls it off though and helps push O'Rourke over the line, what then?
It's an intriguing sub-plot
I'm honestly not sure how I'd advise Beto O'Rourke on this one. It's not clear whether Avenatti has offered him a platform, or whether one has been requested. It's not clear if the O'Rourke campaign has co-ordinated this with #theresistance (I hate that stupid hashtag)
Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes
So who is the member of the Resistance working against Trump from within the White House?
This is one helluva pantomime he's putting on
All roads lead to John Kelly I reckon
Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes
Deep Throat 2.0.
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
I don't think the NYT would have given anonymity to some middle ranking, back-room policy wonk. There's been plenty of them leaking.
When the essay clearly says that the cabinet have been having discussions about invoking the 25th amendment it has to be someone who is privy to that level of discussion, and it even goes onto explain the reasons why they've decided not to invoke it (the real reason is fear incidentally)
I'm persuaded by the idea that it's someone who either expects to leave shortly, or intends leaving on their own fruition. I'm equally persuaded that its someone who had a chord struck by the out pouring of sentiment about John McCain as the NYT have said that they'd only been negotiating the terms of anonymity for a couple of days. The time line sits on top of the McCain funeral. It points to a military man, and McCain isn't the sort of person that conservatives typically invoke as a political force (the man who thought Sarah Palin was a good idea!). Conservatives invoke John McCain for more nebulous reasons of service and duty, rather than as a great political thinker (which he wasn't). It all points to a military man to me, and John Kelly
Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes
Dan Coats?
The older I get the better I was.
Avenatti's just announced that he's representing a second woman with credible allegations against Kavanagh who now wishes to testify alongside Christine Blasey Ford.
You've gotta hand it to Trump, he just keeps finding them
Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes
Looks like my 125/1 long shot might just have been dealt a fatal blow
Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes
Hardly surprising. He's a real horrible character.
The 11/2 Kamala Harris to get the nomination would be a really good bet if it was there in six months time but I'm struggling to get excited about the price this far out.
If I had to look for a big price, I still think there's value in Nikki Haley at about 100/1
Your bet is that Trump doesn't make it to 2020, or that for what ever reason (probably a backroom deal in return for immunity) agrees not to run. What price on either? Difficult to say, but if he fails to jump off, then Haley is head and shoulders above the opposition in the GOP right now. It's a question of trying to discount his price of not making it to the gate, and then taking a view as to what her price would be
Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes