Northumberland Plate 2018

[Desert Orchid]

Copied from my preview:

I have to back Natural Scenery and, to be honest, if she were trained by Charlie Appleby I’d be all over her like the proverbial but SBS’s runners didn’t do too well as Ascot last week and that leads me to be more cautious. I reckon the mare has been trained for this all year and Hanagan catches the eye as a jockey booking but I just have too many doubts about the trainer’s form.

Officially best in is Lagostovegas (5lbs) following her Ascot win for which she was raised 10lbs. A slowly-run marathon on fast ground might be quite a different test from this Tapeta surface and I’m not sure the Ascot form is as strong as the official handicapper believes. If he’s right she’d be about 122 in the table. Clever Cookie has been on my radar for this for some time. He’s run in a couple of races for which I’ve done ratings this season and it’s always been on my mind that this has been the plan. He shouldn’t beat Natural Scenery on last year’s form, though. The +p runners and sleepers should present the biggest dangers. Of the former, Withhold was extremely impressive in the Cesarewitch on his second run for Charlton but I wonder if he is being prepared for the Ebor or maybe the Melbourne Cup. He’ll need to go up the ratings probably for the former and certainly for the latter but a win at York would solve the Australian issue. Amazing Red also impressed last time and holds a Goodwood Cup (G1) entry. That suggests he’s regarded as at least a 110 horse. I’ve rated Sir Chauvelin as equalling his previous best last time but my gut tells me the form is better than that, in which case he is on a curve and has the potential to run a big race. The sleepers, apart from Natural Scenery and Clever Cookie, are Soldier In Action and Curbyourenthusiasm. Soldier In Action got a strange ride behind Amazing Red last time but has suggested more than once this season that the old ability is still there. Curbyourenthusiasm has a similar profile and has been on the receiving end of some highly ineffective tactics but might have won the Queen’s Prize but for a typical show-off Spencer ride. He’s 9lbs lower than when only 8/1 for the 2016 Goodwood Cup and later gave Watersmeet 6lbs and a beating off 105. He’d have a serious chance on that form.

[Outsider]

I will be doing Cosmelli.
Finished 8th last year btn about 3L and is 5lb lower i think. 33/1

Well the consolation race will have to do lol

[archie]

So, what will the winner get for that? 7lb? 10lb?

Maybe the Lonsdale Cup is a better target than the Ebor although Charlton is talking of not running him again in the summer.

[Marble]

I will go 8lb. Goods tipping Arch.

[Desert Orchid]

I think the handicapper will be in a quandary with this one.

They finished strung out like staying chasers, which usually only happens with either very strong form or very soft ground. I tend to leave AW racing alone so I don't know if there is a tendency for Newcastle to produce exaggerated distances. The racecourse people were saying beforehand that it would be riding slow.

The chances are the handicapper will work on the basis that the other placed horses aren't improvers but solid markers who were trying to translate their form to Tapeta but the distances will lead him to impose higher rises. I reckon he'll rate Prince Of Arran an average winner and raise him 5lbs. He'll then rate Withhold value for five lengths and add 5lbs for that.

So I reckon we're looking at 10lbs but it's pure speculation at the moment. When you consider the runner-up in the Hunt Cup only went up 1lb while the winner went up 8lbs (which actually makes sense for a comfortable near-3L margin) he might just put Prince Of Arran up 1lb too, which would probably mean 6lbs for Withhold. I have noticed, though, that when they're strung out in turf races [Flat] he tends to raise them more.

Either way, we'll know on Tuesday.

[Outsider]

It will be interesting to see what he does with cosmelli.
Withold rated 99 and cosmelli 94.
Cosmelli carried 9-7 withold 9-1 but cosmelli was 2 secs faster.

[Desert Orchid]

He may well hit Cosmelli harder but probably not. They went a much faster pace in the Vase which explains the times. Cosmelli had already come down from 103 at the start of last season so I wouldn't be surprised if he goes back up to that mark, a rise of 9lbs. Euchen Glen was already well in and a curve horse so he'll go up probably the same amount as he really should have won.

[Desert Orchid]

Withhold up 8lbs to 107

Cosmelli up 6lbs

Very much within the ball park figures we were discussing and Withhold bang on marble's prediction.

[Outsider]

Withhold up 8lbs to 107

Cosmelli up 6lbs

Very much within the ball park figures we were discussing and Withhold bang on marble's prediction.

Its interesting to see timeform putWITHHOLD up 4lb from 112p to 116p
COSMELLI up 8lb to 108
EUCHEN GLEN up 2 to 106

[Desert Orchid]

Timeform obviously had Withhold high to start with. They are probably quicker than the official handicapper to drop ratings, which would explain the Cosmelli situation.

[Ardross]

The winner is a proper horse but how depressingly boring the racing is on Tapeta. It seems from the HBLB's site that attendances have fallen from 14000 to 12000 or so for plate day since the turf was torn up.