Horses That Missed The Festival

[Maruco]

I reckon we saw a pretty decent Festival this season with lots of nice novices going in to open company next season. Given we had a Gold Cup to savour and we've got a worthy Champion Chaser with Footpad to challenge him it could be even better next season.

I started my annual end of season trawl a few days ago, and what struck me was the quality of the horses that bypassed Cheltenham for varying reasons. Off the top of my head as I write I'm thinking about horses like Waiting Patiently, Cracking Smart, and Willoughby Court. but there were others too. Horses like If The Cap Fits for example.

Are there any others you guys are looking forward to that bypassed the Festival for whatever reason?

By the way, I couldn't think of a better day to post this up than Guineas day!

[Grasshopper]

Great Field is the best horse to have missed the Festival last season, imo. Just hope Mullins gets a clear run with him next season.

[Euronymous]

The Bristol is the best horse to have missed the Festival last season

Corrected

[archie]

Bunk Off Early, Shanning, Cadmium.

[Grasshopper]

Corrected

If by 'The Bristol', you mean 'the Tit', then I can only assume you're referring to the idiot, bumpkin, trainer failing to even give the horse an entry, on ground that would ultimately have seen the hideously slow boat to best effect........in which case, there's no excuse.

[Maruco]

Great Field is the best horse to have missed the Festival last season, imo. Just hope Mullins gets a clear run with him next season.

I really hope he does make the Festival Nick. I have the feeling he's a bit fragile, and still prone to running with his choke out, and they're minding him just like they did with Un Des Sceaux. If he does make up into Champion class I suspect Willie will be trying to persuade Soede and Munir to push Footpad up in trip.

[Maruco]

Bunk Off Early, Shanning, Cadmium.

A very nice trio to go to war with next season Archie. It'll be interesting to see how they progress after their summer off.

[Maruco]

If by 'The Bristol', you mean 'the Tit', then I can only assume you're referring to the idiot, bumpkin, trainer failing to even give the horse an entry, on ground that would ultimately have seen the hideously slow boat to best effect........in which case, there's no excuse.

And taking the humour out of it, never at Cheltenham. Flat track slogs only.

I expected a different response from you when I posted this thread on Guineas day Euro!

[Euronymous]

I'm at work bored out of my nut. Don't fancy anything overmuch for the 2000. Considering a back to partial lay IR on Masah. That's about it.

[Desert Orchid]

Un Temps Pour tout

Coneygree

Noble Endeavor

[viking]

Mia’s Storm looked very promising in her first two runs of the season before struggling to jump out of the soft ground on Boxing Day. Sensibly pulled out of the festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree but failed to jump properly at Ayr on decent ground. I’m hoping she can do better in future given a decent surface


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[Grasshopper]

Un Temps Pour tout

Coneygree

Noble Endeavor

Coneygree a complete goner surely, DO?

[Desert Orchid]

Not according to the Bradstocks.

That's good enough for me...


(Do I really need an emoji??)

[Maruco]

The problem for me with Coneygree (other than the trainer), is that even if he came to his best which is extremely unlikely, I have the first and second in this years Gold Cup better than anything he's achieved in the past. In addition we potentially have a new battalion of novices coming through into the senior ranks who seem are full of potential.

The only race I see for a fit and well Coneygree is the Hennessy, and even then the handicapper would need to give him a fair bit of relief. He would also be vulnerable to unexposed second season chasers but better that than being highly tried To no effect in open company. I would cefinitely target Un Temps Pour Tout at the Hennessy if comes back fit and well. I'm definitely with you that he was good enough to do himself justice in the Gold Cup, and he'd have been my third place finisher this season.

[Maruco]

Noble Endeavor remains interesting. I can't remember what his setback was though? The same applies to him as UTPT. With both you'd need to know they've come back as good as they were. He's handicapped for one of the big staying handicaps though, and you'd think Elliott would be looking to exploit it somewhere probably in Ireland. Although with Elliott he might hide it all away until next March off a revised lower mark in the Festival Chase again.

[Desert Orchid]

The problem for me with Coneygree (other than the trainer), is that even if he came to his best which is extremely unlikely, I have the first and second in this years Gold Cup better than anything he's achieved in the past. In addition we potentially have a new battalion of novices coming through into the senior ranks who seem are full of potential.

The only race I see for a fit and well Coneygree is the Hennessy, and even then the handicapper would need to give him a fair bit of relief. He would also be vulnerable to unexposed second season chasers but better that than being highly tried To no effect in open company. I would cefinitely target Un Temps Pour Tout at the Hennessy if comes back fit and well. I'm definitely with you that he was good enough to do himself justice in the Gold Cup, and he'd have been my third place finisher this season.

I know we agree a lot in our reading of form, Maruco, but I went low with this year's Gold Cup. In my review I wrote:

3.30 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE (GRADE 1)(Class 1) Winner £369,822 18 runners 3m2f70y Soft ITV

No.	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	OR	MON	Notes
1	Native River	Colin Tizzard	Richard Johnson	166	168
2	Might Bite	Nicky Henderson	Nico de Boinville	169	166	++
3	Anibale Fly	A J Martin	Barry Geraghty	159	164	p
4	Road To Respect	Noel Meade	Sean Flanagan	168	162
5	Djakadam	W P Mullins	Mr PW Mullins	162	158

“Take out Might Bite and this could be a good handicap.” This pre-race summary is the overriding context of my low ratings for this race. It was a wonderful spectacle at the time because the commentary made it sound like the two protagonists were serving up a savage pace. It seemed like we were witnessing one of the all-time great Gold Cups. In fact, it was anything but, although the winner’s new OR of 176 makes it look good. I won’t be at all surprised if in time we see that mark drop again.

Native River is a thoroughly admirable beast but he was rather beaten up here by Johnson in his determination to see off Might Bite on whom de Boinville showed commendable restraint when it was clear his partner had no answer to the heavy ground up the hill. This exaggerated the winner’s margin of victory as well as the third’s closing effort.

I can see where the handicapper gets his 176 for the winner from. Road To Respect and Djakadam have run relatively close to their marks and makes that possible. We also know Might Bite is top class. However, I’ve watched the race a few times now. The front two got to dictate their own pace on virgin ground. I suspect this seduced the others into thinking they must be going fast and as a result they were held up off a moderate pace against better horses so were always going to struggle to get into it. Djakadam has proved more than once he doesn’t stay this trip. He’s less likely to have stayed in this ground. He was in the group just behind the pace and probably ran as well as could be expected but I can’t have him running to his good ground best here, which is what Native River’s 176 implies. Definitly Red maybe had a harder race than it looked last time or maybe just didn’t fancy another slog in a bog. Either way, he was never running his race. It wasn’t the pace that beat him. Anibale Fly in third is a good handicapper, nothing more. He’s probably a few pounds better than his pre-race 159 rating but he’s the one who, for me, is a key guide to the form. He’s as close to Native River as he should have been. Road To Respect didn’t stay but it looks like he’s been taken as one of the key guides, which would make Native River’s 176 logical. I can’t have that.

Everything else was trying to come from poor positions off a moderate pace in ground being churned up ahead of them. Saphir Du Rheu probably got nearly the worst ride of the entire field. Not only was he held up but he was also kept wide, racing in the ground that had been badly churned up the previous day. Twiston-Davies was presumably riding to instructions as it was a carbon copy of the ride he gave the horse last year but that was on decent ground. I suspect the horse needs to see his fences and he was never going to be ridden in the pack so I also suspect Nicholls and Twiston-Davies had decided before the race they were just going to let him do what he could for a circuit before saving him for Aintree. It’s a ride I can understand but I cannot for the life of me understand the ride Edwulf got. I’m still angry about it.

So all in all, I’m going low with the bare ratings but I half-expect the adjust them upwards by a pound or two in the coming months but I’ll be surprised if I end up getting them near the ORs.

So for that reason, Coneygree's Gold Cup form would put him a good way clear of this form. However, I also believe away from Cheltenham Might Bite is comfortably 180+.

Somewhere in the deep recesses of the remaining brain cells I recall Coneygree already having been dropped a fair bit by the handicapper so the Hennessy could indeed be a feasible target.

[Desert Orchid]

Noble Endeavor remains interesting. I can't remember what his setback was though? The same applies to him as UTPT. With both you'd need to know they've come back as good as they were. He's handicapped for one of the big staying handicaps though, and you'd think Elliott would be looking to exploit it somewhere probably in Ireland. Although with Elliott he might hide it all away until next March off a revised lower mark in the Festival Chase again.

Having put him away for the National this year only to be thwarted by injury (minor, I believe) I'd be disappointed if he wasn't campaigned with that one race in mind again. He knows what it takes to win the race and I'd be pretty confident NE is a lot better handicapped already than Tiger Roll was last month.

[granger]

Death Duty even though he hadn't won me over.

[Diamond Geezer]

Usually go through my old TTF list with a view to keeping horses onside for the next season's competition before discarding it. although haven't done so yet. Off the top of my head Thistlecrack is one of the obvious ones.

[Maruco]

I'd forgotten about Thistlecrack. He'd have it all to prove though. He hadn't quite shaped up like a genuine Grade 1 performer over fences previously and it's a big to ask to come back and beat younger proven horses at that level.

if I were Tizzard I'd be really tempted at another tilt at The Stayers.