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Thread: 2000 Guineas

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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    2000 Guineas

    Aiden O'Brien has won this almost 50% of the times it's been run since Rock of Gibraltar

    So opposing him isn't exactly sensible.

    That said I was never that impressed by Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion let that form down big time in the Craven

    Gustav Klimt needs to improve big time on his win over Nebo and the recent win in Ireland tells us nothing other than he's fit as it fell apart around him.

    Why Masar is as short as 4/1 is beyond me. The Craven was a desperate looking affair and early season form is usually rubbish.
    The fact he's been thrashed a few times at 2yo doesn't inspire much confidence in this class but William Buick is one of the best out there
    the yard is flying so no doubt he'll run well.

    SMS is a genius but whether he can get Expert Eye to win this is a huge ask..just can't see it

    Headway blew a lot of people away coming from a mile back last time but this is way different
    He could be the one to pull it off if we are going to have a shock winner but not for me.

    The one I like is Mark Johnston's Elarqam who won the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes
    Talk about unfurnished he looked as raw as raw can be to me yet he still managed to beat some good animals easily.
    With normal improvement he'd take some beating but the word is he's come on a ton since last season

    I know confidence is very high but whether he will shorten up with 2 AOB horses heading the market is hard to say but I took 7.0 on the machine
    .
    g/l all
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Fav is drifting apparently and money coming for Masar (agree with above comments on this one)& Saxon Warrior (I am never a huge fan of the Racing Post Trophy winners) but I did like the way Gustav Klimpt won regardless of what he beat and he could improve a ton. Expert Eye was a standout in the paddock when he won at Goodwood last year. If SMS has got him back and the horse hasn't been hit by the harsh East Anglian spring, he could easily bounce back. Can't comment on Elarqam as I have forgotten what he looked like and my Sky decided to down tools during the OS.
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    Senior Member Anadin's Avatar
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    Thought I would check the trends for the 2000 -

    16 out of the last 16 had top 3 finish lto, so that would rule out Cardsharp, Raid & Rajasinghe
    15/16 had won at least 50% of their starts, strike a line through - Headway, Massa, Nebo & Tip to Win
    15/16 Had never finished lower than 4th in career, out goes, Gustav Klimit, Murillo & Expert Eye

    Leaving us with - Saxon Warrior, Roaring Lion, James Garfield & Elarqam

    15/16 made their racecourse debut at a G1 track (So Garfield would be out)

    The 3 left follow match these trends too -

    16/16 had a 75%+ W-P S/R
    15/16 had at least previously placed at group level
    14/16 had previously won at 7f or 8f
    14/16 had 2+ previous victories
    14/16 ran in a Group race last time out
    14/16 were born on or before the 26th of March
    13/16 had won on their racecourse debut

    Follow the old adage and never oppose an unbeaten horse ... Saxon Warrior & Elarqam with an e/w on the Roaring Lion

    I still believe Gustav Klimit to buck the trend and a nice double with Audible in the Kentucky is my holiday money, I hope

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    I think Gustav Klimt,Saxon Warrior & Elarqam will all be better over further and it will be interesting to see if Cardsharp is let loose on the lead and completely sacrificed to help Elarqam.I could see it being an attritional race with the winner being held up -maybe Headway-or something that touches a big price in running.

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    The market is screaming Gustav each way.

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    Oh My you just can't keep him down but what a run from Tip to Win 9.2 to be in the first 4
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    First triple crown winner since Nijinsky.

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    Can't knock that.
    Stunning horse in the preliminaries. Masar a fair run in third. The second ran it's socks off - what a great result for Roger Teal.
    (Gustav Klimpt is disappointingly small)
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    [QUOTE=LUKE;702839]First triple crown winner since Nijinsky.[/QUOTE
    So long as he handles Epsom, I wouldn't disagree!
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LUKE View Post
    First triple crown winner since Nijinsky.
    Very possibly, Luke.

    It looked a proper race and when I saw him make his move I involuntarily muttered, "Oh fvck..." Even so, the chasers made him pull out the stops so I think it might go down as one of the really top renewals.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Could be a Derby horse but after that last debacle do you think they would go St Leger? surely not? Plus you have to ask has this been a good Guineas?
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Very nice performance.

    Elarqam will improve from that too.

    300th Group one winner for O'Brien.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Richard Hills just interviewed on RUK and he said they expected Elarqam to win.

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    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Saw that.

    I thought he would be 3rd or 4th. The experience look needed. That with the potential step up in trip too.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    Saw that.

    I thought he would be 3rd or 4th. The experience look needed. That with the potential step up in trip too.
    I suspect if Donnacha had held on to him a bit longer he would have been more impressive . A big horse having his first run and looking most in need of it in the paddock no surprise if he was getting tired at the end.

    He quickened impressively and all the good horses including the underrated runner up followed him home.

    What happened to Elarqam shows the risk of turning up for the 2000 with insufficient experience.

    My only worry about Epsom is whether such a big horse will necessarily handle the track.

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    The only debacle was that Encke was trained by a doper.

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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Good point..
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Lovely horse but surely won't handle Epsom.

    6 lengths between the first nine and the time was nothing special (0.4 sec faster than the winner of the last race who carried 7lb more). Even money for the Derby is laughable.
    The older I get the better I was.

  21. #19
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anadin View Post
    ...

    Leaving us with - Saxon Warrior, Roaring Lion, James Garfield & Elarqam

    15/16 made their racecourse debut at a G1 track (So Garfield would be out)

    The 3 left follow match these trends too -

    ...

    Follow the old adage and never oppose an unbeaten horse ... Saxon Warrior & Elarqam with an e/w on the Roaring Lion

    I still believe Gustav Klimit to buck the trend and a nice double with Audible in the Kentucky is my holiday money, I hope
    Good working, shame about the conclusion
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. #20
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Lovely horse but surely won't handle Epsom.

    6 lengths between the first nine and the time was nothing special (0.4 sec faster than the winner of the last race who carried 7lb more). Even money for the Derby is laughable.
    Doesn't pay to laugh at Aiden O'Brien Archie.........the whole damn family seems to be gifted
    Formely Fist of Fury

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