'Necessarily' is the key word, as what you're saying is that they haven't demonstrated they have the ability to win a strong end-to-end race, but then this also requires you to take an accurate view as to how a race will be run
The best division I know for illustrating this is 2 mile novice hurdlers. Contrary to what people might think, at championship pace the 2 mile division is a test of stamina, but because its the minimum trip in the winter game people get seduced into thinking its a test of speed (parallels with the 400m again)
If you look at the Supreme in particular, it's littered with horses that went into the race as well fancied favourites. Most of these earned exalted reputations based around moderately run races which they settled with an increase in tempo from 3F's out, and then deployed a devastating acceleration from 1F out to earn the comment "impressive". They're invariably installed as favourite and considered a good thing come the Festival (often at a very short price). Now I'm not to say they're poor horses, they are after all winning races in prep, and doing so in convincing fashion, but that would only make them a good thing if the race is going to be run in a fashion similar to that to which they've demonstrated they can handle with aplomb. They might have a plan B, and they might very well be able to handle a searing pace from the tapes too, but you simply haven't got the evidence to know that
The one I'm reminded of (as it dragged me into a 10 week argument on neigh.co.uk when it seemed I had half of Ireland ranged against me) concerned two Irish horses who had developed just this type of pattern (Sweet Wake in the Supreme and Mister Hight in the Triumph). Now it suits me to dredge this one up (as I was vindicated - you tend to remember those) but the two horses I had in opposition against them based on twice running big figures that season were Straw Bear and Detroit City. This pair had shown they could sustain a strong pace, whereas the Irish pretenders had to be considered unproven but with potential. As it happens Straw Bear came second, and would have won had McCoy not made a complete bollocks of the last flight and bunny hopped the horse to a halt. Sweet Wake was an unplaced BF. Detroit City won the Triumph and Mister Hight was nowhere
What I think likely happens is that the horse which has no experience of a strong pace is suddenly thrown into something that they've never encountered previously and it comes as a shock to them. How will they respond? Distressed horses rarely perform to their optimum. Now with time of course, a class horse can learn, but on other occasions they simply aren't good enough
Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly. _ Harry Limes
So will Cracksman make into a good novice hurdler or not ?
Eleanora Duse (4th May 2018)
I remember you latching on to Detroit City at Newbury after his less than auspicious start on debut. You went pretty high for it as I remember, and then higher again in its third run at Sandown. I also think you ranked the Sandown race better than any of the 10 previous Triumph Hurdles? I half recall you having a progression theory too?
I don't think I was quite as sweet on Straw Bear though, and I'm pretty sure I was one of those in opposition. I think the reason was that he was campaigned at gaff tracks prior to the Festival, and horses that had previously done so had never won a Supreme. That remained true, but as you say without the mistake at the last he may well have broken that trend and beaten Noland. Unless I'm mistaken, I think that trend still holds up a dozen or so years on by the way.
If only I were a king I could make a fortune..but then if I was a king I'd already have a fortune
Formely Fist of Fury
Wow Cracksman wonderhorse..
S0rry Avengers have you tried Suicide squad? No way would this horse be remembered for 5 min after this season
Formely Fist of Fury
Season ain't over yet
ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!
Given how he ran at Epsom the twice before, it was slightly surprising he was given the go ahead.
I had a suspicion he would make heavy weather of it. That said, it was to his credit his class got him home.
All comers, all grounds, all beaten!
This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.
De Sousa said afterwards his horse was tiring and "rolled away from the rail". I think to label the ride a failure is harsh. He came within a head of pulling off a real shock of a result. It's not as if he was riding the second favourite who would have been entitled to beat an off-form Cracksman. He was not expected to beat many - if ANY - of that field.
The most ridiculous comments of the day - and not for the first time - have to go to Chapman who seriously tried to argue that Cracksman had run his race. That kind of incompetence deserves sacking.
Illegitimi non carborundum
cracksman didnt seem like he was in tip top race condition today, and for all the cracksman haters, even money to win by less than
4 1/2 lengths today
I don't know about tip-top condition (I can't judge these things in the flesh let alone on TV) but I thought he was never travelling. It was going through my mind listening to the immediate post-race interviews about him not coming down the hill that he wasn't travelling up the hill in the first part of the race either. I thought Dettori's arms were fairly active on him from the start and wondered if all was well.
I don't imagine we'll see him at Epsom again. That was too close for comfort. Dettori's immediate post-race gestures of relief were refreshingly honest.
Let's not forget that the Brigadier was run close a couple of times in bad ground and was beaten by Roberto when there was no obvious excuse until some time later, and Nijinsky lost his last two races.
Horses are only human after all...
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 2nd June 2018 at 7:53 AM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I actually think he has Des.
I think it sort of depends on your view before the race as to how you viewed it afterwards. I expected Salouen to run him close and I also expected the German horse to be in the mix so for me the result was exactly what I expected therefore I think Cracksman has run his race. Has he produced his best run ever ? No but then would you ever expect him to at Epsom over 1m4f ? That was probably as well as he can perform there. Personally I think he's a very good horse but also overhyped. It made me laugh when I listened to everybody's reaction to it afterwards about it being a below par run. It was a solid group 1 performance.
I'd suggest some of those who feel it was disappointing go and re-watch last years Derby and only keep their eyes on Salouen. Watch it a few times and then ask seriously are we surprised that Salouen has run Cracksman so close with a clear run ? I'd bet a pound to a piece of **** that all the T.V pundits who were slagging Cracksman on the basis that Salouen had finished so close wouldn't have even recalled him running in the Derby. Maybe if they paid that sort of attention before the race and not just assume that the 2/7 fav has a walk in the park then their pre race analysis may improve as may their betting exploits.
Remember that's a dual group 1 winner well beaten in third who had conditions to suit yesterday. Idaho beaten 8 lengths in 4th was beaten 7 lengths in the Arc last term and 5 lengths in the King George both times by Enable. Also only beaten 5L in the Japan cup and come into this off the back of a decent win at Chester.
Open minds fellas.
Last edited by Danny; 2nd June 2018 at 8:04 AM.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Maybe it depends on how you define 'run his race'.
Cracksman is an early/mid 130s horse. The highest OR of the rest was Hawkbill's 122 (I have him at 124). Salouen was 110. As you know, I'd have backed the German horse if there were three places in the market but if he had an OR it would probably have been about 115. Salouen was unlucky in last year's Derby but wouldn't necessarily have won.
If the expectation was that Cracksman would run to his Derby form then clearly he was no good thing. Why, then, was he 2/7? Because his subsequent form elsewhere was a league apart from his Derby form. I don't recall seeing anyone on TV or reading anywhere that Cracksman was expected merely to run his Derby form before the race. They've clearly learned now, and probably once and for all, that sending him to Epsom is a very risky proposition.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Relative to the other races yesterday the Coronation Cup was run in a very respectable time, nearly two seconds faster than the Oaks and with a faster pace per furlong than any other race on the day.
I think he hated the ground. If you watch him early, his head keeps nodding down as he hits a sticky patch, a sure indicator that a horse is struggling to handle conditions. I think he did exceptionally well in the circumstances as Salouen was given a very enterprising ride. Had Dettori not switched him up against the rail, he probably wouldn't have got there.
tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito
Biggest laugh yet making excuses for this very ordinary by classic standard animal.
.cant get my head round why anyone would want to skip the light fandango and go there
Formely Fist of Fury