The road to the REAL Grand National 2018 (ie the Scottish one)

[Outsider]

Im going to go against all the stats for this race and do the horse i did last year.
13 yr old BENBENS.
The drying ground will be a help.last year he ran a cracker and i think they held on to him too long and he ran on well to only be beaten 2L.
Usually a good jumper and if they think he will stay well now,they might let him go a bit sooner.
At 33/1 i think i will get a good run for my money.
Ive also done MYSTEREE 33/1 as im sure we havent seen the best of him especially this season.

[Double Handful]

I like Nicholls Silsol 25/1 for the Scottish Grand National today. Dropped 2 lbs since 4th in The Midlands National - form which has since been franked.
That was on Heavy ground which wouldn't have seen Silsol at his best. In fact the last time this horse actually ran on good ground, he beat Native River!
(Granted it was 18 months ago and over hurdles - but I still believe it to be at least a positive that he wants better ground).
That coupled with the fact he's shown the attributes to get these staying trips makes him a sold EW for me today at 6 places 25/1.

[Desert Orchid]

No.	Form	Horse	Weight	Trainer	Jockey	OR	MON (169+)	Notes	RPR
8	FU1233	Sizing Tennessee	11-2	Colin Tizzard	Robbie Power	145	178	?	167
3	-P6PP4	Sizing Codelco	11-7	Colin Tizzard	Paul O'Brien 5	150	(175)	?	169
7	-83P68	Label Des Obeaux	11-4	Alan King	Wayne Hutchinson	147	171		160
26	-U63P6	The Young Master	10-3	Neil Mulholland	Mr Sam Waley-Cohen 3	132	171	+ e d (185d)	154
21	15-434	Doing Fine	10-6	Neil Mulholland	Noel Fehily	135	170	+p	165
2	F1-2UP	Vicente	11-7	Paul Nicholls	Sam Twiston-Davies	150	169	+p	166
11	1-05U4	Silsol	10-13	Paul Nicholls	Harry Cobden	142	169		159
4	512414	Ballyoptic	11-6	Nigel Twiston-Davies	Tom Bellamy	149	168		165
5	74-1P4	Beware The Bear	11-6	Nicky Henderson	Jeremiah McGrath	149	168	p	165
12	-12423	Vintage Clouds	10-12	Sue Smith	Danny Cook	141	168		165
15	-7419P	Benbens	10-9	Nigel Twiston-Davies	Aidan Coleman	138	168		166
16	126-7U	Looking Well	10-8	Nicky Richards	Ryan Day 3	137	(168)	+? p?	162
17	1P2U30	Cogry	10-8	Nigel Twiston-Davies	Jamie Bargary	137	168	p	164
27	-22124	Alzammaar	10-1	Sam England	Callum Bewley 3	130	168	? e (170+p Hd)	156
18	-91F12	Indy Five	10-7	David Dennis	Brian Hughes	136	166	p +?	164
19	P12-P3	Mysteree	10-7	Michael Scudamore	Robert Dunne	136	166	p	163
28	61P-07	Boa Island	10-1	James Moffatt	Conor O'Farrell	130	166	? ey	162
1	2F-11P	Gold Present	11-12	Nicky Henderson	Nico de Boinville	155	164	p +?	161
23	31F260	Work Du Breteau	10-6	Dan Skelton	Bridget Andrews 3	135	164	?	162
20	P-65P1	Straidnahanna	10-7	Sue Smith	Henry Brooke	136	163		160
25	642131	Glencairn View	10-4	Anthony Mullins	Danny Mullins	133	163	+p v	156
30	-3013P	Fact Of The Matter	10-0	Jamie Snowden	Harry Bannister	129	163		160
6	/P-122	Fagan	11-4	Gordon Elliott	Davy Russell	147	162	? [159o Hd]	157
22	-42431	Joe Farrell	10-6	Rebecca Curtis	Adam Wedge	135	162	? p +?	163
13	661129	Get On The Yager	10-11	Dan Skelton	Harry Skelton	140	161	p +6?	160
9	391211	Regal Flow	11-2	Bob Buckler	Sean Houlihan 5	145	160	p +?	161
24	411-98	Pearl Swan	10-5	Peter Bowen	James Bowen 3	134	160	{169o Hd}	145
14	-2U5P1	Henri Parry Morgan	10-10	Peter Bowen	Sean Bowen	139	159	{++}	166
10	131356	West Approach	11-1	Colin Tizzard	Tom Scudamore	144	?		161
31	/4523/	Racing Europe	10-0	Brian Ellison	Derek Fox	129	?	[165p]	188

This is a brilliant renewal and I hope the good ground will see a compelling race. I also hope it allows the class horses to dominate and it is to them that I’m turning my attention. A list of possible winners would still be quite extensive so to cut to the chase I’m pruning it down to the top six in the table, which I might even perm in tricasts. However, the prices are pretty short; most of them are in the first six or seven in the betting so I can’t back them all. Instead I’m going to look for a wee bit of value. Sizing Tennessee will be the main bet. Savers will be carried by Sizing Codelco, Henri Parry Morgan and Alzammaar. I do think Vicente is the one to beat, though. I still think his form first time up at Cheltenham pointed to his being a much better horse this year and he’s clearly been campaigned with either Aintree or this in mind. I was never convinced he’d go to Aintree but maybe fast ground would have tempted them given the race is now worth a million so I’m hoping my bravery in not backing him pays off.

[LUKE]

Fagan definitely has a kink in him but in my opinion his year was all about either today or the 4 miler at the festival -will love the ground and could be in a different league to this lot.Tremendous back to lay in my opinion.

[Grasshopper]

Have gone with Indy Five.

[Desert Orchid]

Great finish but I've just watched the races one after the other and I get the impression a lot of horses have forgotten how to jump off a fast pace. Every race was strewn with novicey errors and lots of really good horses, some with serious chances, had no chance by halfway.

That might be something to watch for in the weeks to come.

For all I had it down as a possible +p type, Joe Farrell simply wasn't on my radar. Ballyoptic's backers will have had a thumping heart for a few minutes there.