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Thread: Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

  1. #1381
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Someone mentioned Great Ambassador after the stewards cup for the Ayr Gold Cup. He is currently joint fav at 8/1 for the Great St Wilfred at Ripon on Saturday.
    Need a high draw.ive had a small bet on Music society at 33/1.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I've just googled weather forecast for york next week and they are due 30mm throughout the week.
    Same with this one:

    Latest 16 Day Metcheck Weather Forecast for York
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  4. #1383
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I agree and will be backing it, Outsider. It definitely has a decent handicap in it. The weights have been out I think since before Goodwood, though, so the recent adjustments won't impact. I wouldn't put it past Orbaan to defy his penalties, either.
    I went on a clipper website last night and it seemed to me as if the weights weren't out yet.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes I saw that D.you are right but I just wondered if that were the entries with there present Mark's but I see it has 6lb penalty by a couple.
    Never mind,if the rain comes then it will have a chance.
    If it gets dropped again for saturdays run he could be well in in future races.
    Oh the Joy's of horse racing.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Those are the ratings/weights as per the date of release. Amendments for penalties will be annotated accordingly.

    What you might find is that if you click on a horse for its profile, its up-to-date rating will show and if the rating has gone up or down since the publication of the weights then it will be different from what's on the card.
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  9. #1387
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Don't know what to think about that. I have my nuts firmly lodged in Royal Aclaim on the Friday (ap singles and a trixie roll over). The sire won the Foret on Soft and he in turn is by Acclamation who was a proper mudlark.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Nothing original in this selection but I can't help thinking we saw the 2000 Guineas winner the other day.

    It was clear by halfway that Bradsell wasn't running its race so let's leave him out of calcs and concentrate on the other horses.

    5th - Apache Outlaw: this is not the first time Kevin Blake has been very positive about this horse going into a race. He's Joseph's racing manager and told everyone on the early programme on Saturday that this one would run a big race and outrun his odds. Now, It wouldn't be hard to outrun odds of 80/1 but let's say he did run to his OR of 100. The winner has given him a 14 length (ie 42lbs) beating. So, best case scenario: LBB is a 142+ horse.

    4th - Bradsell: will he even ever race again?

    3rd - Shartash: OR 106 on the back of a short-head defeat by Blackbeard, which a number of pundits were putting up for this race before its withdrawal. LBB has beaten him 7.5 lengths, or 22/23lbs, bringing LBB out on 128/129.

    2nd - Persian Force: career RPRs, earliest first, of 99, 101, 106 and 110 pointed to a progressive but perhaps not brilliant juvenile. Would it be unreasonable to expect him to have run to at least 110 here? LBB has beaten him 7 lengths, or 21lbs, so LBB comes out on 131+.

    Now, cards on the table, I have never entirely subscribed to the accepted poundage for race distances for juveniles being the same as for mature horses. It's a bit like putting your two fingers on a touch-screen and reducing the entire page. I just don't know by how much. But let's say 5%? (What does an average 2yo weigh compared with a mature horse?)

    By this reckoning, Little Big Bear is a 135-125 juvenile, the latter being entirely conservative.

    In effect, he could stand still between now and May and still win an average 2000 Guineas. Easily.

    Although he's by No Nay Never, his dosage figures are entirely inconclusive and don't rule out effectiveness at a mile but it looked to me like the horse was still going strongly under Moore some way after the line the other day. Not that Moore was at any pains to stop him; I'd proffer the notion that Moore was feeling the horse out for further by not asking him to slow down too much. The other runners had stopped long before he did.

    It's early days but I think 9/2 is one helluva price even this far out. Sure, lots of water has to run under a slalom of bridges between now and the end of the season, let alone May, but I'm now pretty heavily involved at that price despite already having Naval Power onside at 12/1.

    Exciting times ahead either way.
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    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    I think Shadwell have found a hot one in Anmaat, but it must have surprised them a bit since he doesn’t seem to have any major (or any come to that) entries as yet. After winning the John Smith’s on his return he had little option than pattern races and I thought his win in the Group 3 Rose of Lancaster on Saturday was really high class. What really caught my eye was that everything bar Anmaat was off the bridle by the 2 furlong mark with Jim Crowley sitting quiet and quiet and quiet until he eventually came off the bridle approaching the final furlong as he went on to win by an easy four lengths. I’m not a big ante post player, but I wish I could find something to back him in while he’s still a bit under the radar.

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    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    I think Shadwell have found a hot one in Anmaat, but it must have surprised them a bit since he doesn’t seem to have any major (or any come to that) entries as yet. After winning the John Smith’s on his return he had little option than pattern races and I thought his win in the Group 3 Rose of Lancaster on Saturday was really high class. What really caught my eye was that everything bar Anmaat was off the bridle by the 2 furlong mark with Jim Crowley sitting quiet and quiet and quiet until he eventually came off the bridle approaching the final furlong as he went on to win by an easy four lengths. I’m not a big ante post player, but I wish I could find something to back him in while he’s still a bit under the radar.
    Not under the radar now BJ.
    Racing tv the verdict has just showed him winning and the Irish champion stakes could be next.

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    He was very impressive. Been perusing the markets and he's not in the ICS list or the Champion Stakes.

    A few thoughts though:

    Is State of Rest going for the Juddmonte? 12s very reasonable.

    I've backed Changingoftheguard in the Voltigeur. He holds the fav and is much better than he showed at Ascot. That was a tough assignment so soon after the Derby.

    Mitbaahy. He lost a length and was bumped at the start at Goodwood and was then taken to the wrong part of the track. Ignore that run. He's in the Sprint Cup which seems a big stretch, but he's also in the sprint at the Curragh on Irish Champions weekend and Powers and the Betfair Sportsbook are going 33/1. That is insane.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Not under the radar now BJ.
    Racing tv the verdict has just showed him winning and the Irish champion stakes could be next.
    Oh Dear ***###*”##**

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  18. #1393
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I had a wee problem with the Magnet Cup at the time because of how it appeared to pan out.

    Some time later I looked into the sectionals and they suggested the pace was nothing great, backed up by a lot of the placed horses and those behind them finishing faster than the principals.

    There's no doubt the form of the race is working out, though.

    Anmaat has now hacked up at G3 level.

    Runner-up Achelois hacked up next time.

    The fourth, Spirit Dancer, won next time up from the 10th, What's The Story, which won next time up.

    The fifth, Brilliant Light, was second next time up to the 14th, Forest Falcon in one of the big Goodwood hcaps, with the sixth, Just Fine, and eighth, Caradoc, in behind.

    The 11th, Certain Lad, was fifth to Anmaat the other day.

    In the words of Credence Clearwater Revival, hotter than a match-head.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  19. #1394
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    Creedence clearwater revival. Now you're talking.

  20. #1395
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Creedence clearwater revival. Now you're talking.
    Before my time

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  22. #1396
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Nothing original in this selection but I can't help thinking we saw the 2000 Guineas winner the other day.

    It was clear by halfway that Bradsell wasn't running its race so let's leave him out of calcs and concentrate on the other horses.

    5th - Apache Outlaw: this is not the first time Kevin Blake has been very positive about this horse going into a race. He's Joseph's racing manager and told everyone on the early programme on Saturday that this one would run a big race and outrun his odds. Now, It wouldn't be hard to outrun odds of 80/1 but let's say he did run to his OR of 100. The winner has given him a 14 length (ie 42lbs) beating. So, best case scenario: LBB is a 142+ horse.

    4th - Bradsell: will he even ever race again?

    3rd - Shartash: OR 106 on the back of a short-head defeat by Blackbeard, which a number of pundits were putting up for this race before its withdrawal. LBB has beaten him 7.5 lengths, or 22/23lbs, bringing LBB out on 128/129.

    2nd - Persian Force: career RPRs, earliest first, of 99, 101, 106 and 110 pointed to a progressive but perhaps not brilliant juvenile. Would it be unreasonable to expect him to have run to at least 110 here? LBB has beaten him 7 lengths, or 21lbs, so LBB comes out on 131+.

    Now, cards on the table, I have never entirely subscribed to the accepted poundage for race distances for juveniles being the same as for mature horses. It's a bit like putting your two fingers on a touch-screen and reducing the entire page. I just don't know by how much. But let's say 5%? (What does an average 2yo weigh compared with a mature horse?)

    By this reckoning, Little Big Bear is a 135-125 juvenile, the latter being entirely conservative.

    In effect, he could stand still between now and May and still win an average 2000 Guineas. Easily.

    Although he's by No Nay Never, his dosage figures are entirely inconclusive and don't rule out effectiveness at a mile but it looked to me like the horse was still going strongly under Moore some way after the line the other day. Not that Moore was at any pains to stop him; I'd proffer the notion that Moore was feeling the horse out for further by not asking him to slow down too much. The other runners had stopped long before he did.

    It's early days but I think 9/2 is one helluva price even this far out. Sure, lots of water has to run under a slalom of bridges between now and the end of the season, let alone May, but I'm now pretty heavily involved at that price despite already having Naval Power onside at 12/1.

    Exciting times ahead either way.
    Simon Rowlands's sectional take on the race:

    Sectional Spotlight | At The Races

    His assertion about the official distances would obviously impact upon the ratings I posted above and bring mine closer to alignment with his.
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  23. #1397
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    In the words of Credence Clearwater Revival, hotter than a match-head.
    Surprised no one has corrected me on this.

    It was, of course, The Lovin' Spoonful who had the big hit with Summer In The City.

    Summer in the City - YouTube

    (It's also the music for the opening sequence to Die Hard 3.)

    I got mixed up with CCR because the music group I belong to have been practising Have You Ever Seen The Rain as well.

    Creedence Clearwater Revival: Have You Ever Seen The Rain? - YouTube



    Incredible to think this is stuff from the '60s - so much better than the synthesised crap going around these days.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 10th August 2022 at 5:14 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  24. #1398
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    You know what they say DO, if you can remember the 60's then you weren't there

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Surprised no one has corrected me on this.

    It was, of course, The Lovin' Spoonful who had the big hit with Summer In The City.

    Summer in the City - YouTube

    (It's also the music for the opening sequence to Die Hard 3.)

    I got mixed up with CCR because the music group I belong to have been practising Have You Ever Seen The Rain as well.

    Creedence Clearwater Revival: Have You Ever Seen The Rain? - YouTube



    Incredible to think this is stuff from the '60s - so much better than the synthesised crap going around these days.
    I must admit I didnt know what hotter than a match head came from.
    But , I didnt discover CCR until later in life and is my favourite band/group.

    And I like that track,have you ever seen the rain in york.

  26. #1400
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2017diary View Post
    You know what they say DO, if you can remember the 60's then you weren't there


    I was too young and innocent back then. Born 1955 so the '60s would have seen me aged 4-14.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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