Selected by Euro at 7s earlier in the week. What a great advertisement for this thread...I still remember Hukum hacking up in a handicap at Royal Ascot. He is a proper horse now...
Last edited by Marb; 3rd June 2022 at 3:24 PM.
I've backed a horse entered this weekend at a track I have a mixed record at (York) trained by someone I've never been convinced about and a jockey isn't booked yet so I'm not certain he'll run. Oh, an he's an ex Hamdan sold in the partial dispersal of his stock. Those are the negs about Mandoob. The positives is his run behind Al Aasy at Ascot looks rampant form after recent boosts by Third Realm and Universal Order, he has one or two nice pieces of form as a 3yo which suggests they could have kept him at Shadwell - and the potential oppo Saturday looks a bit threadbare on quality. Hamish is decent but is vulnerable under a penalty, I don't rate Kemari, I do rate Without a Fight but have stamina doubts. John Leeper and Enemy are ultra meh.
Desert Orchid (6th June 2022)
Arc - Tuesday 16/1 - I can accept that Emily Upjohn (8/1) was the moral winner of the Oaks and I can see her running as well as did Taghrooda, who was 9/2f when a good third to Treve, come October but I reckon by then there is every chance Tuesday will have improved past her. The Gosden filly is fully three months older than Tuesday. By October the maturity gap should have narrowed (based on the wfa scale) a wee bit and I think the price difference is too much. There's a long summer ahead and a lot of water to flow under a lot of bridges but I think these are two good fillies who might not have a strong older contingent to worry about.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I'm not a stats guy but he's never won the Arc with a 3yo. To overcome that Tuesday would need to be Enable level good or her trainer would need to maybe give her a break between the Curragh Oaks and the Vermeille.
Yep, I'm aware of that but I'm not a stats guy either
But surely it's a monkey O'Brien/Coolmore will want off their back sooner rather than later?
How many of the previous Coolmore good fillies were born in June?
Why do you say she'd need to be Enable good level? Not every winning filly is at that level. As I see it, she just needs to be good enough to beat what else turns up. I reckon with the allowance she could give Desert Crown and/or Vadeni a race.
Maybe the Irish Derby will throw up another contender, who knows, but I just reckon 8/1 is probably Emily Upjohn's price so 16/1 strikes as generous for one that beat her.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Enable ran in all the big summer races so she was at a disadvantage in terms of the normal 3yo type ideal prep for the Arc. That is the main reason AOB has never won the race with one of that age group - he never gives them a break. Enable was that good (plus bad renewal) she overcame.
EDIT:
Speaking of which EU may run in the Ribblesdale - which imo fucks her Arc claims - and my Ascot AP book.
Last edited by Euronymous; 9th June 2022 at 9:29 AM.
Desert Orchid (9th June 2022)
I accept all that, Euro, but they say the essence of stupidity is doing the same thing over and expecting a different result. AOB ain't stupid. At some point he has to target the Arc and give up on the heavy summer campaign. I'm hoping (perhaps against hope) he campaigns Tuesday with the Arc as the target.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Luxembourg!
All comers, all grounds, all beaten!
This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.
Desert Orchid (9th June 2022)
Tuesday for the Arc? have you all gone looney?
Honestly talk about throwing shite at a wall and hoping some will stick.
Prix du Jockey Club winner Vadeni, Epsom Derby Winner Desert Crown, Emily Upjohn who should have eaten her alive in the Oaks, Hurricane Lane beaten under 1 length last season
Must all be going to miss the race???? She is 16/1 because she has no chance and I'd even be prepared to say she wont even run in the Arc
Formely Fist of Fury
Vadeni - The PDJC is worthless since it went 10f - he beat a bunch of milers who wouldn't be in the race if it was 12f. His only rivals were poorly drawn
Desert Crown is a strong contender
Emily Upjohn - If Gosden goes for the ******* Ribblesdale with this one? This is Thady's doing the little ******. No chance she wins the Arc if she takes in Royal Ascot so soon after Epsom.
Hurricane Lane - Not sure I trust the trainer to keep a top 12f horse at the top of his game for 2 seasons.
Vadeni was racing over 10f+ and lapped it up and will relish the Arc trip
He showed an amazing turn of foot leaving 10f winner El Bodegon looking like a tree.
It's not what you beat it's how you do it and he was more impressive in the JC than Desert Crown was in the Dante.
Like the owner's Zarkava he has a devestating turn of foot and is a steal at his current price of 8/1 .
Formely Fist of Fury
Vadeni is by a miler, and none of his siblings steyed more than 10f.
Doubt he'd get the Arc trip on a bus.
There's plenty decent form over 12f if you look a little deeper but that's not the problem.
His trainer says he has earmarked the 10f route for the moment and will only go to the Arc if he cleans up there first.
If he was just being aimed at the Arc you wouldn't get a siff at 8/1 but the bookies are banking on him not running.
Personally for me he looked like he could have gone round again the other day and was the most impressive winner I have seen in a very long time,
Formely Fist of Fury