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Thread: Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

  1. #481
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I've done VIEUX LION ROUGE 20/1 boosted to 22/1 with hills.
    Ran off its lowest mark for 5 yrs on saturday,140 and has also been put up 12lbs so he will be 8lb well in as well.
    Yes, the logic is the same and I'm tempted for that reason. The exchange price, though, has me wondering if he'll be going for it. The big difference is that Secret Reprieve is on a steep curve and likely to be better than his 12lbs rise suggests. 6/1 tops now and 7/2 with some of the kid-on outfits.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've also taken 16/1 Musical Slave for the Massey-Ferguson/Caspian Caviar this Saturday.

    It's JP's only entry but I'm not sure how significant that might be considering his runners didn't get that close in the Mackeson. I backed this one last time at Newbury, though, and by halfway I was convinced I was on a total non-trier.

    I'm not a fan of Johnson, something I've always openly declared, but he was godawful on this horse last time out. I couldn't help thinking he was deliberately putting the horse wrong at his fences yet he wasn't beaten at all far without being given too hard a race. The lasting impression I had was that Musical Slave is significantly better than he showed that day.

    If he's just an iffy jumper the chances are they'll take him out so I'd have been on a loser anyway but if he gets into a rhythm just off the pace in order to show his real ability he can't possibly be far off winning.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 8th December 2020 at 12:49 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Yes, the logic is the same and I'm tempted for that reason. The exchange price, though, has me wondering if he'll be going for it. The big difference is that Secret Reprieve is on a steep curve and likely to be better than his 12lbs rise suggests. 6/1 tops now and 7/2 with some of the kid-on outfits.
    I must admit that is off putting.

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    I wanted to get a look nice and early on the big handicap hurdle at Ascot next Saturday - fail to prepare, prepare to fail and so forth.

    Loads of horses and form to get through, though at this stage the one sticking out at me is Alan King's Isolate.

    To begin with I didn't think he'd make the cut off a mark of 128. However, I see Not So Sleepy won off a mark of 127 last season. There were just sixteen runners that day.

    The maximum amount that can run next Saturday is 21, so it looks to me like Isolate could just sneak in?

    He's totally unexposed over hurdles, having won his novice hurdles well. He could be the best handicapped horse in the race.

    I'm going to wait until Monday to see the entries.

    If I backed him on Monday evening anti-post at least I know so long as Alan King confirms him and/or if he is balloted out I'd get my money back.

    I think he will sneak in there yet though.

    If I can take 16's Monday evening I'll be happy.
    Last edited by Marb; 13th December 2020 at 12:45 PM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    How do I go about getting a price about a horse winning any race at the festival?

    Is it just a question of trawling through all the sites or is there a link (which I'm not seeing) via oddschecker?

    Thanks in advance.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 13th December 2020 at 7:47 PM.
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    "The owls are not what they seem"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    I wanted to get a look nice and early on the big handicap hurdle at Ascot next Saturday - fail to prepare, prepare to fail and so forth.

    Loads of horses and form to get through, though at this stage the one sticking out at me is Alan King's Isolate.

    To begin with I didn't think he'd make the cut off a mark of 128. However, I see Not So Sleepy won off a mark of 127 last season. There were just sixteen runners that day.

    The maximum amount that can run next Saturday is 21, so it looks to me like Isolate could just sneak in?

    He's totally unexposed over hurdles, having won his novice hurdles well. He could be the best handicapped horse in the race.

    I'm going to wait until Monday to see the entries.

    If I backed him on Monday evening anti-post at least I know so long as Alan King confirms him and/or if he is balloted out I'd get my money back.

    I think he will sneak in there yet though.

    If I can take 16's Monday evening I'll be happy.
    Entries at todays forfeit stage should be in soon...be interesting to see what will stand their ground.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    How do I go about getting a price about a horse winning any race at the festival?

    Is it just a question of trawling through all the sites or is there a link (which I'm not seeing) via oddschecker?

    Thanks in advance.
    William Hill give you the option to back 'any race' each way, whereas the others are win only.

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    This handicap at Ascot on Saturday has had a load of withdrawals.

    Looks like only between 20-25 horses left in.

    I'll be taking my chance later.
    Last edited by Marb; 14th December 2020 at 1:50 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    This handicap at Ascot on Saturday has had a load of withdrawals.

    Looks like only between 20-25 horses left in.

    I'll be taking my chance later.
    Hi marb,I've took a chance with BALLINSKER.took 33s.ran well in 6th last time and the time before he was easily beaten by Milkwood but is 13lb better off.milkwood does look good on his unlucky run last time but it's only 8s so I'm going for a bit of value and even William's seems to be in form.

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    Good luck, Outsider.

    I figure Isolate's price could contract during the week, I really like his profile. I'm waiting for some cash to clear into my debit card at present.

    Plus not all the bookies have prices on the race. I'm tempted to back him on the nose to maximise potential returns, although each way is a safety net in the event he places on the day.

    His best performance the last day was on soft ground, so forecast rain at Ascot isn't a major worry.
    Last edited by Marb; 14th December 2020 at 2:38 PM.

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    I see Isolate is current bottom weight, no.22 on the list.

    Anyone got any views on whether he'll make the cut this Thursday? He needs at least one horse to drop out.

    I see the 20/1 with William Hill didn't last long.
    Last edited by Marb; 14th December 2020 at 4:06 PM.

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    I'd be absolutely amazed if at least one horse doesn't come out at the 48 hour stage
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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    Aye I hope that's the case, Lee!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Aye I hope that's the case, Lee!
    King could always take his other one out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    King could always take his other one out.
    Looks like he already has.

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    Cheers, Outsider.

    Thats music to my ears.

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    Where did you see this mate?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Where did you see this mate?
    I'm confusing you I think.
    I thought edwardian,I think that's its name,was running but when I looked later he wasnt in the betting.so it looks like there is still 22.
    Last edited by Outsider; 14th December 2020 at 8:31 PM.

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    No worries, Outer.

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