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  1. #421
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    There's no prices for the Challenge Cup at Ascot on Saturday yet.

    However, a horse I backed the last day it won, called Brad The Brief, for trainer Tom Dascombe is entered by the looks of it. I was impressed by how he dug deep to fend of Summerghand that last day in that listed race, when he was only receiving three pounds, but still beat the 112 rated Summerghand well enough, staying on at the finish when looking like a horse who would appreciate an extra furlong.

    He's gone up 8lb to 104, but still plenty ahead of his official mark, with a win strike rate in a limited career thus far of over 50 % (4/7).

    So you can tell I'm all over this horse for Saturday, I await thee prices.....
    Last edited by Marb; 28th September 2020 at 12:18 PM.

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  3. #422
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    Oh bollox


    Those were the ancient entries.

    He's not declared today.

  4. #423
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    Entered in John Guest stakes, the Group 3 at 3.40 at Ascot instead.
    Last edited by Marb; 28th September 2020 at 2:02 PM.

  5. #424
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    I took 11/1 River Nymph for the big handicap on Saturday in anticipation of the odds halving through the week. A serious curve animal.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  6. #425
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    Revich was unfancied at 25/1 the last day when 5th of 16 runners at this track Ascot behind Documenting. He was only beaten a length and three quarters, it looked like an encouraging run before a bigger race like this one coming up on Saturday.

    He's been much better this season, with two consecutive wins in first time visors before his last run. I'm tempted to call him a 'curve horse' but I won't pinch Desert Orchids phrases without giving him credit beforehand. Anyways, Revich I'm keen on. Everything looks right for a career best.
    Last edited by Marb; 28th September 2020 at 7:59 PM.

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  8. #426
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    I'm quite sweet on Reshoun in the Ceserewitch this Saturday for Ian Williams and Marwan Koukash.

    It's an open race but it must be more than a coincidence that Reshoun won his final race in the years 2017, 2018, and 2019. His win over Rajinsky a couple of starts ago reads well. We should put a line through his last run. He's deadly at the the end of a season. I just wonder who will ride him, (if its Jim Crowley he won't start 25/1).
    Last edited by Marb; 5th October 2020 at 3:16 PM.

  9. #427
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've had a pop at the Cesarewitch - Leoncavallo 16/1

    Now with David Pipe, the trainer appears to have sweetened him up and, once rated 145 over hurdles, he'd have a favourite's chance if he could translate that ability back to the Flat off 83. I can't really see him making the cut off that mark so they might try to pick up a penalty beforehand although I'm pretty sure marks in the 80s have got in recently.
    Comfortably makes the cut and now 12/1 third fav.

    Only one will have to come out for a max field so I imagine connections of anything that picked up a penalty just to get in will be feeling a tad sick.

    Eight Irish-trained decs there too. Are they likely to make the journey?

    I feel a wee bit sorry for connections of Ocean Wind who didn't even qualify. Would have had a major say.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  10. #428
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Comfortably makes the cut and now 12/1 third fav.

    Only one will have to come out for a max field so I imagine connections of anything that picked up a penalty just to get in will be feeling a tad sick.

    Eight Irish-trained decs there too. Are they likely to make the journey?

    I feel a wee bit sorry for connections of Ocean Wind who didn't even qualify. Would have had a major say.
    When the good Doctor trained this one he said he need good or better ground. Weather watch for this one.

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  12. #429
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    Leon well backed now into 8/1 in a place.

    Willie Mullins trained horse Great White Shark also well backed.
    Last edited by Marb; 6th October 2020 at 12:23 PM.

  13. #430
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Leon well backed now into 8/1 in a place.

    Willie Mullins trained horse Great White Shark also well backed.

    Yes. 8/1 now looks the general price with 10s still there in a place or two.

    It's always encouraging when an ante-post pop halves in price but it's still 1/8 it won't win

    Hopes were high last weekend with River Nymph halving in price too only for the bastartin weather to win. No chance of getting 12s next time.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  14. #431
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    Quote Originally Posted by luckyme View Post
    When the good Doctor trained this one he said he need good or better ground. Weather watch for this one.
    NH good ground, they keep saying, is different from Flat good ground. I'm staying optimistic for now.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  15. #432
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    I've been through the Coral Sprint at York this Saturday. It looks a minefield of a race but one who has definately caught my attention is Tranchee, who is having a much better season this summer, having changed trainer to David Loughrane's yard.

    Tranchee won nicely the last day at Doncaster so is coming in here in top form, and his second placing to River Nymph, with Owen Burrows future winner Danyah back in third reads really well.

    Tranchee was only receiving 1lb in weight off River Nymph that day, and maybe Tranchee will turn out to be a better horse over six furlongs which he'd get this Saturday. At present he is entered in a Group two on Friday but hopefully he will be taken out of that tomorrow morning.
    Last edited by Marb; 6th October 2020 at 1:30 PM.

  16. #433
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    I did mukha magic 66/1 for the ces only to see it entered at southwell tonight.

  17. #434
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I did mukha magic 66/1 for the ces only to see it entered at southwell tonight.
    Yes, I think I put it up on the longshot thread at Goodwood after its big run at unfavourable weights in the Queen Alexandra and it's also on my radar.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 6th October 2020 at 6:11 PM.
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  19. #435
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    This weekend nothing jumps (god I can't wait for the jumps) out at me but some thoughts are:
    Can't have Cape Byron as fav for the Challenge Stakes but struggling for an alternative. Pogo would appeal if the ground isn't too soft. The last two times he hasn't stayed over 9f so dropping below a mile is interesting.

    The Dewhurst market is fascinating. I'd have Etonian over Chindit in terms of the impression they have made on me but the trainer is very much in the latter's camp judging by comments he's made about their work preps.

  20. #436
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    This weekend nothing jumps (god I can't wait for the jumps) out at me but some thoughts are:
    Can't have Cape Byron as fav for the Challenge Stakes but struggling for an alternative. Pogo would appeal if the ground isn't too soft. The last two times he hasn't stayed over 9f so dropping below a mile is interesting.

    The Dewhurst market is fascinating. I'd have Etonian over Chindit in terms of the impression they have made on me but the trainer is very much in the latter's camp judging by comments he's made about their work preps.
    You and me both. I’ve virtually abandoned the flat now and just enjoying the preludes before the curtains open on the star cast.

  21. #437
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    I'm 95% through the Ces form and have taken 20/1 Lightly Squeeze.

    He was still in the lead when falling at the last in the Betfair, a performance that suggests he might even be better handicapped than Leoncavallo. He'll be 4lbs out of the handicap but the chances are Harry Fry will engage a top claimer and only needs one to drop out (and I can't see Gavin Cromwell running all of his).

    This is another I can see halving in price.

    Edit - Hayley Turner booked.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 6th October 2020 at 9:29 PM.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  22. #438
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    Verdana Blue ruled out of Cesarewitch with an abcess on her foot, looking at Ascot the following weekend (Sat) or a listed hurdle at Kempton (Sun)
    "The owls are not what they seem"

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  24. #439
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    I've been through the Coral Sprint at York this Saturday. It looks a minefield of a race but one who has definately caught my attention is Tranchee, who is having a much better season this summer, having changed trainer to David Loughrane's yard.

    Tranchee won nicely the last day at Doncaster so is coming in here in top form, and his second placing to River Nymph, with Owen Burrows future winner Danyah back in third reads really well.

    Tranchee was only receiving 1lb in weight off River Nymph that day, and maybe Tranchee will turn out to be a better horse over six furlongs which he'd get this Saturday. At present he is entered in a Group two on Friday but hopefully he will be taken out of that tomorrow morning.
    Tranchee declared and shortened up from an opening show of 20/1 a few days ago. He could start single figure prices on Saturday.

    Jim Crowley is on board Reshoun who I think has a good each way chance. I guess a lot depends on how good the market leaders turn out to be. If Reshoun is at his best, (and as mentioned before, he does come good late in a season) , then 25/1 is a decent price for an each way flutter.

    I'll stick with Brad The Brief in the 1.00 Bengough Stakes who could improve further. Martin Harley rides him.

    Elsewhere I'm hoping Some Chaos will get back to form at Chepstow, where he will be carrying a low weight taking on Ballyoptic and co in the 2.47.
    Last edited by Marb; 8th October 2020 at 2:00 PM.

  25. #440
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'm 95% through the Ces form and have taken 20/1 Lightly Squeeze.

    He was still in the lead when falling at the last in the Betfair, a performance that suggests he might even be better handicapped than Leoncavallo. He'll be 4lbs out of the handicap but the chances are Harry Fry will engage a top claimer and only needs one to drop out (and I can't see Gavin Cromwell running all of his).

    This is another I can see halving in price.

    Edit - Hayley Turner booked.
    Looks like I might not get a run with this one after all. Alarm bells rang when I saw HT missing from the jockeys and she's got a few booked at Chelmsford but Lightly Squeeze also holds a Chepstow engagement with Sean Bowen booked.

    Oh well. We move on...
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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