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  1. #21
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    If you haven't already the Fontainebleau is worth a watch from yesterday. Olmedo got beat and when he joined the winner on his inside he looked like he was going to zoom past but was likely undone by the ground. I think on decent ground this season he is going to be a monster. I've taken 9/2 about him for the Poulains in the hope that the ground is better in mid May (unfortunately the race will be back at Longchamp which mean it'll be a draw race again.)
    Last edited by Euronymous; 16th April 2018 at 6:18 PM.

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    Marble (21st April 2018)

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  4. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    A thread for whatever we want to sketch down on this cyber canvas, for the odd horse that we want to back for a race, (flat or jumps). Also a thread for horses we would like to see targeted at a specific race.

    I'm sure this will throw a few good/bad ideas/bets up, (predominately from me!).

    I've put some brain power into considering suitable options for Ultima Chase second, Shantou Flyer, post Cheltenham Festival.

    He put in a lifetime best that day, when giving weight to the handicap blot of the day, Coo Star Sivola.

    Shantou Flyer's entered in The Grand National, but as some of us mentioned before, the possibility of a faller in front of you or bad luck in running puts me off somewhat. I think if trainer and connections really wanted to stand a live chance of winning a good race they should avoid the National.

    Given the way Shantou Flyer was staying on in The Ultima, I'd like to see connections wait until The Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown at the end of April over 3m5F. Maybe ground conditions will play a part in where they go with this one, (perhaps soft-to-heavy is his favored going, although he may act on better ground; he just hasn't had that many opportunities to race on that this season).

    He's really got better with the new headgear and new trainer Richard Hobson getting to know him well. I emailed him to say they should be looking at The Bet 365 Gold Cup so am pleased to see him in the entries.

    There's loads of time to get involved anti-post, (a couple firms have gone 20/1 early doors which is fine). I'm in no great rush. He could run in The National yet. A lot can happen between now and the end of the month.
    Only a week for this to materialise (here's hoping!).

  5. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Sometimes 2 year old's can be brilliant one day but next time round they fail to shine without any real explenation.

    Expert Eye looked simply awesome at Goodwood but then he looked near useless in the Dewhurst.

    Messing about like a 2 year old would've describe him well before the start..then pulled like train and collapsed in a heap.

    But there can be no doubt he is still a very high class animal.

    This is not the first time this has happened to a SMS Guineas horse and they have bounced back.

    King's Best also finished stone last in the Dewhurst but he bounced back as a 3yo and went on to win the Guineas

    I would imagine Expert Eye go for the Craven and then the Guineas which is a ploy SMS has used in the past

    I just can't see him being anything like 11/1 come Guineas day
    He needed that run I think mate. I'm not sure about The Guineas but I wouldn't lay him for The Derby!

    Workforce the second....
    Last edited by Marble; 21st April 2018 at 3:21 PM.

  6. #24
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Amazing all this time and Expert Eye has learned nothing.......when they pulled like that in the old days we used to pint them straight at a brick wall and play chicken with them.......they soon learned to settle )

    I doubt if SMS gcan now go Guineas with any confidence if at all :0(

    You could be right Martin but I am no more than hopeful for either now
    Last edited by Tanlic; 21st April 2018 at 3:22 PM.
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  8. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Amazing all this time and Expert Eye has learned nothing.......when they pulled like that in the old days we used to pint them straight at a brick wall and play chicken with them.......they soon learned to settle )

    I doubt if SMS gcan now go Guineas with any confidence if at all :0(

    You could be right Martin but I am no more than hopeful for either now
    Have to step him up in trip now, surely?

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    I could be wrong. May end up in The Commonwealth Cup for all I know.
    Last edited by Marble; 21st April 2018 at 3:28 PM.

  10. #27
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    Shantou Flyer a NR according to Racing Post. No surprise to see five or six firms still quoting him!
    Last edited by Marble; 21st April 2018 at 4:45 PM.

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  12. #28
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    I've taken a couple of ew doubles for the Oaks and Derby.

    September permed with The Pentagon and Kew Gardens. 8/1 x 14/1 & 33/1.

    Did I mention that in addition to the 20/1 I got about September, I also stumbled across a bet with a bookie I rarely use: 33/1 September (Oaks).

    I'm still trying to get my head round the Guineas. A few of the big guns have disappointed in their respective trials.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  13. #29
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Can't oppose Gustav in the 2000, put him in doubles with Apple's Jade for the mares race at Punchy and Olmeda for the Poulains.

    The Sandown Mile is an interesting betting heat on Friday. As impressive as Addeybb was in the Lincoln I have to be against him at under 3s for this and Aljazzi seems the obvious one at 8s at Powers. She was most impressive in the Atalanta Stakes at the track last year and also ran a cracker at the Royal Meeting. Good mare.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    If you haven't already the Fontainebleau is worth a watch from yesterday. Olmedo got beat and when he joined the winner on his inside he looked like he was going to zoom past but was likely undone by the ground. I think on decent ground this season he is going to be a monster. I've taken 9/2 about him for the Poulains in the hope that the ground is better in mid May (unfortunately the race will be back at Longchamp which mean it'll be a draw race again.)
    You are not far off there. Wooton is a serious horse himself but I also think Olmedo will be better on better ground. Personally I prefer Olmedo for the Jockey Club and while I rarely bet AP these days I've taken 15/2 on him to do just that.

    Rouget is rolling along in usual style this spring after last year's "disaster" and has a few very interesting horses for the coming 3yo big races none more so than Pharell. The type of Rouget 3yo who starts very small and just improves from race to race. Pharell is available at 21/1 and have also played some on him

    If Olmedo wins the Poulains so much the better.
    I do think the Poulains could be a pretty hot race this year.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

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  16. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Sometimes 2 year old's can be brilliant one day but next time round they fail to shine without any real explenation.

    Expert Eye looked simply awesome at Goodwood but then he looked near useless in the Dewhurst.

    Messing about like a 2 year old would've describe him well before the start..then pulled like train and collapsed in a heap.

    But there can be no doubt he is still a very high class animal.

    This is not the first time this has happened to a SMS Guineas horse and they have bounced back.

    King's Best also finished stone last in the Dewhurst but he bounced back as a 3yo and went on to win the Guineas

    I would imagine Expert Eye go for the Craven and then the Guineas which is a ploy SMS has used in the past

    I just can't see him being anything like 11/1 come Guineas day
    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Amazing all this time and Expert Eye has learned nothing.......when they pulled like that in the old days we used to pint them straight at a brick wall and play chicken with them.......they soon learned to settle )

    I doubt if SMS gcan now go Guineas with any confidence if at all :0(

    You could be right Martin but I am no more than hopeful for either now
    I've actually got quite interested in this one now as it goes. O.k so he didn't win on his seasonal return but I wouldn't be too despondent about it. I'm looking at the rest of the field and thinking there is not too much to be scared of. I was relatively impressed by Gustav Klimt the other week and I think he's every right to be favourite. The drift in recent weeks on Saxon Warrior should tell us all we need to know and It was always imagined he was more of a Derby type anyway so unless the ground comes up testing I can't seem him winning. Roaring Lion simply awful on reappearance couldn't see anyone making a case for him unless once again the ground was very testing. I don't really think Elarqam decent as he is has hit the sort of figures at 2 which would suggest he'd be capable of picking up anything other than a poor Guineas.

    Expert Eye's run at Goodwood for me certainly set the standard. Reportedly lame after the Dewhurst is a reasonable excuse when he clearly wasn't anywhere near.

    I think his comeback run is good enough to suggest he's still in with a big shout. He was certainly too keen and having only just watched the race this morning my opinion he has by far the most chance of improving off the back of that run. If that run has just took the edge off him a little and he settles a bit better which is even more likely as you'd expect a stronger pace in the Guineas itself then I think he has a cracking chance and at least in my book he's one of the few that has hit the required standard as a 2yo.

    U.S Navy Flag would be another but it seems he's not very far up the pecking order at Ballydoyle now. If things were as simple as just going by the form book I could probably forgive him a run on Dirt and a seasonal reappearance on Heavy Ground enough to give him a solid chance but over the years I've learned if something doesn't make sense via the form book i.e US Navy Flag being 20/1 + then it usually makes sense to someone better informed than I.

    The only other one of any interest would perhaps be the lightly race Without parole but he needs to take another big step forward and at a similar price to expert eye I'd pass him over.

    You may have got the price wrong Tanlic but I think you might have got the winner.

    At 14/1 currently I think he's the best bet in the race.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  17. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    I've actually got quite interested in this one now as it goes. O.k so he didn't win on his seasonal return but I wouldn't be too despondent about it. I'm looking at the rest of the field and thinking there is not too much to be scared of. I was relatively impressed by Gustav Klimt the other week and I think he's every right to be favourite. The drift in recent weeks on Saxon Warrior should tell us all we need to know and It was always imagined he was more of a Derby type anyway so unless the ground comes up testing I can't seem him winning. Roaring Lion simply awful on reappearance couldn't see anyone making a case for him unless once again the ground was very testing. I don't really think Elarqam decent as he is has hit the sort of figures at 2 which would suggest he'd be capable of picking up anything other than a poor Guineas.

    Expert Eye's run at Goodwood for me certainly set the standard. Reportedly lame after the Dewhurst is a reasonable excuse when he clearly wasn't anywhere near.

    I think his comeback run is good enough to suggest he's still in with a big shout. He was certainly too keen and having only just watched the race this morning my opinion he has by far the most chance of improving off the back of that run. If that run has just took the edge off him a little and he settles a bit better which is even more likely as you'd expect a stronger pace in the Guineas itself then I think he has a cracking chance and at least in my book he's one of the few that has hit the required standard as a 2yo.

    U.S Navy Flag would be another but it seems he's not very far up the pecking order at Ballydoyle now. If things were as simple as just going by the form book I could probably forgive him a run on Dirt and a seasonal reappearance on Heavy Ground enough to give him a solid chance but over the years I've learned if something doesn't make sense via the form book i.e US Navy Flag being 20/1 + then it usually makes sense to someone better informed than I.

    The only other one of any interest would perhaps be the lightly race Without parole but he needs to take another big step forward and at a similar price to expert eye I'd pass him over.

    You may have got the price wrong Tanlic but I think you might have got the winner.

    At 14/1 currently I think he's the best bet in the race.
    Don't do ante-post, but I thought - after the Greenham - we'd see a much better performence, come Guineas day.

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    I was of the thinking he could go one of two ways Reet he could get all worked up again and fluff his lines but if he doesn't he certainly has the ability to beat everything else regardless of what they bring to the table on the day.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  19. #34
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    My ante-post money is down the shitter already in the 1000 with Polydream being pulled out but I think Laurens is acceptable ew value at 10s.

    In the 2000 as already mentioned I have doubled Gustav with Olmeda and I might add Expert Eye. The posts above bring to mind Grand Lodge who I was mad keen on back in the early 90s for the race. He disappointed big time in the Craven before running a stormer behind Mister Bailey's on the big day (was then brutalised by Kinane in the SJP, one of my favourite ever punting memories)


  20. #35
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    I'm putting this up on the longshot thread too as a qualifier there.

    2000 Guineas - U S Navy Flag 20/1 (ew) - I've been crunching some numbers this morning and keep coming back to this one. I'm not convinced the other Coolmores are ahead of him in the domestic pecking order. Some of his 2yo form is outstanding and I'm more than happy to ignore his reappearance run the other week behind the favourite on ground he'd have hated. Gustav Klimt's new OR of 112 would be nowhere near good enough to win the Guineas and is 10lbs below U S Navy Flag's rating going into that race. I'm happy to believe that race was more about getting the latter ready for this weekend. Assuming he gets there fit and well, 20/1 about a horse with his credentials is absolutely knockout value.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  21. #36
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    Another for both this thread and the longshot one:

    2000 Guineas - Raid 50/1 (ew) - I'm surprised this one is as far below the radar as it is. It was clearly ridden not to win the Greenham, in my opinion, and will almost certainly improve a lot for the outing and then a bit more for the step up in trip. I half-expect Roaring Lion to chicken out of a rematch with Masar leaving Raid as the owners' runner. If they think he has a better chance than Roaring Lion then should he be 50/1? I definitely expect him to beat James Garfield (25/1) and maybe even Expert Eye (12/1). I honestly can't see him actually winning but I can't see him being 50/1 on the day either so the place portion now might be more than double the place-only price on the day. I got NRNB.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 1st May 2018 at 2:10 PM.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    I also took an ew ante-post yankee:

    2000G - U S Navy Flag
    1000G - Wild Illusion
    Oaks - September
    Derby - The Pentagon

    PP allowed me 1.43 ew

    (Still pays tens of thousands!)
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    York Thursday 17th May..Jack Berry handicap (5F). The Michael Dods trained horse, DAKOTA GOLD (16/1) fits the profile nicely. He's well worth a rating of 99. He finished fifth in the valuable sales race at Newmarket in 2016 and then won at Thirsk and York last season. He actually beat a horse back in second at Thirsk that day called Computable, trained by Tim Easterby who is going places this season I reckon and has loads of scope.

    Dakota Gold, with track form at York can win this. There are some interesting entries in the field, don't get me wrong, including Orion's Bow, but I don't know if he will be declared. Anyway, I really just like the look of Dakota Gold at the anti post price of around 16/1.
    Last edited by Marble; 13th May 2018 at 10:17 PM.

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  25. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    York Thursday 17th May..Jack Berry handicap (5F). The Michael Dods trained horse, DAKOTA GOLD (16/1) fits the profile nicely. He's well worth a rating of 99. He finished fifth in the valuable sales race at Newmarket in 2016 and then won at Thirsk and York last season. He actually beat a horse back in second at Thirsk that day called Computable, trained by Tim Easterby who is going places this season I reckon and has loads of scope.

    Dakota Gold, with track form at York can win this. There are some interesting entries in the field, don't get me wrong, including Orion's Bow, but I don't know if he will be declared. Anyway, I really just like the look of Dakota Gold at the anti post price of around 16/1.
    Taken out of the York race Thursday but still entered in another decent sprint handicap at Thirsk this Saturday, (4:30).

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  27. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    One that's tempting me is Rhododendron for the Queen Anne - 12/1

    She's entered in the Lockinge but that's a race Ballydoyle rarely target with mush gusto and I can see her needing it if she comes across.

    Of the likely oppo at Ascot you have Benbatl who is short based on bullshit Meydan form, Le Brivido who is respected and not much else really.

    I think a stiff mile would be ideal for the filly.


    Mmmm. I didn't think she'd take in a race before the Lockinge. Worried they'll head for the POW now

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