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Thread: Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

  1. #341
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Had a look at Goodwood last night.

    Lennox looks a really solid competitive race. Hard to knock the Space Blues/Safe Voyage form but not sure the track will suit the latter. He won well at Epsom but didn't look in love with the camber. Could be his optimal is a straight track with cut. Dream of Dreams should run well but it's a competitive race. Would be against Limato who has run below form here before.

    The WFA scale is overly generous to the 3yos not just in the Goodwood Cup, which is obvious - but also in the Sussex. In the former I'm gonna be putting Santiago in a multiple or two. 15Lbs is daft imo. In the latter for me in a good renewal I'd only favour an older horse if they had a class edge. I reckon they only win terrible renewals - Lightning Spear, Here Comes When, Solow. Frankel faced no proper 3yos when he won not that it would have mattered. I'd be against Mohaather and Circus Maximus on those grounds and at the prices Wichita is the obvious value call. His price diff with Kameko is excessive and Siskin is too short.

    The Nassau runs the Sussex close as the race of the week imo. Looks like Tawkeel was kept for this rather than going for the Diane which is unusual for a Frenchie. I'm reluctant to oppose her but Deirdre and Queen Power look too big. Nazeef looks a miler.

    Art Power would tempt me in the King George but will they take on Battaash here and at York? Doubt it given the trainer.

    Elsewhere Khalifa Sat has nice track form so would be my choice in the Gordon against English King and Tiger Moth
    Last edited by Euronymous; 25th July 2020 at 10:07 AM.

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  3. #342
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Dawaaween solid second favourite tomorrow. Probably my nap of the day.
    I'm delighted at the generous price he's trading at. I fancy this horse can go close.

    Dawaaween will do the talking in a few minutes hopefully.
    Last edited by Marb; 25th July 2020 at 2:00 PM.

  4. #343
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    I think he lost his action. Ah well.

  5. #344
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    What did you make of Breathtaking Look's run last week, Euro? She is entered on Friday at Goodwood.
    Last edited by Marb; 25th July 2020 at 3:13 PM.

  6. #345
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    What did you make of Breathtaking Look's run last week, Euro? She is entered on Friday at Goodwood.
    She ran really well just unlucky to run into one she didn't see coming.

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    7F around a less galloping track like Goodwood could suit her well.

  8. #347
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    Keeping an eye on whether William Haggas declares Tomorrows Dream for the Dick Hern stakes on Saturday. She won at Glorious Goodwood well. That was ten days after her last run.

    On that evidence she will run this Saturday. I like her profile, she's worth a rating in 90s now. Available at prices currently that'd she wouldn't start at if, (it's a very big if), she ran this Saturday.
    Last edited by Marb; 4th August 2020 at 5:51 PM.

  9. #348
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Keeping an eye on whether William Haggas declares Tomorrows Dream for the Dick Hern stakes on Saturday. She won at Glorious Goodwood well. That was ten days after her last run.

    On that evidence she will run this Saturday. I like her profile, she's worth a rating in 90s now. Available at prices currently that'd she wouldn't start at if, (it's a very big if), she ran this Saturday.
    Tomorrows Dream declared with Richard Kingscote on board.

    I suppose on a strict form line with Festive Star, Simon Crisfords horse will uphold the form, as he was giving a lot of weight away when beating Tomorrows Dream.

    However, Tomorrows Dream might be an even bigger improver having won nicely at Goodwood. In truth they could both get in the places.

    An each way bet on Tomorrows Dream is my plan.
    Last edited by Marb; 6th August 2020 at 11:15 AM.

  10. #349
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Best of luck with that, Marb. TD is rated 90, fully 23lbs behind the highest rated in the field on ORs, 24lbs behind the top on RPRs and 44lbs behind the top on TS ratings.

    Huge ask, even to be placed and get black type.

    That said, Kingscote is a man to have on your side at Haydock. Not many ride the place better than him.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 6th August 2020 at 12:55 PM.
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    Cheers for that. There's 9 runners. I wish Veracious wasn't entered, because with 8 runners without the favourite I'd be a lot more confident of Tomorrows Dream placing or winning, although I would also be getting a shorter price.

    I feel Tomorrows Dream could be well ahead of her mark. Only time will tell. With a trainer who can bring one through from a handicap to a listed race in Haggas for sure. Also, she did step up from low class five level to class 2/3 level within the space of a fortnight. This bodes well for another step up.
    Last edited by Marb; 6th August 2020 at 1:06 PM.

  12. #351
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Looks like Kameko is heading for the Prix Jacques Le Marois next weekend ground permitting. Palace Pier will be tough to beat but the current 10s on Kameko looks big.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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  14. #352
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I was quite impressed by Lucky Vega yesterday. I think 16/1 and thereabouts might be quite generous for the 2000G.

    There's a case for rating it 118p, pretty good for this stage of the season with the strong prospect of better still to come and he's bred for the mile.
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  16. #353
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    I think Spanish Mission has a favs chance in the Geoffrey Freer but his trainer also has Almania in the race and he's booked Spencer for that horse which makes me think SM maybe won't run. Will monitor.

    Magical is winking at me for the International, she seems sure to place if allowed to participate. Yes, they could run in the YO now Enable heads to Kempton instead but surely they could leave it for Love.

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    I like the look of the recently well backed (anti post) William Bligh in the Denford Stakes. I wasn't sure if he'd run, given he was beaten at short odds in a handicap at Glorious Goodwood last time. However, I checked oddschecker: He is now 4/1 from 8/1 so on that evidence he will be a runner.

    I almost think at 4/1 he is too short to back at this stage. God knows what will be declared on Thursday I suppose.

    I also plan to back Sea Of Faith in the Geoffrey Freer. Hopefully one of us will get it right, Euro.
    Last edited by Marb; 11th August 2020 at 5:53 PM.

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    Golden Apollo in the St Wilfred anyone? He looks to be coming into top form.

    I have found the third horse for my trixie/patent. Hopefully all three get declared.
    Last edited by Marb; 12th August 2020 at 2:00 PM.

  19. #356
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Golden Apollo in the St Wilfred anyone? He looks to be coming into top form.

    I have found the third horse for my trixie/patent. Hopefully all three get declared.
    The GSW has been quite kind to me down through the millennia so I'm hoping for more luck.

    It won't be my only bet in the race but I've just taken 16/1 Hyperfocus. Good course form and now very well handicapped. Should probably be a single-figure price so happy to get in early in anticipation of a gamble.

    Won here over CD last summer off 90 (GS) then second in the consolation for this off 89 (but actually ran away with the race on his side - Sft), then a neck second off 94 in a £100k race at York (Sft) and finished the season on 97.

    Three quiet runs this season see him back down to 88. I was hoping he'd be one for the longshot thread but it doesn't look like happening. They'll almost certainly be watering this week ahead of the meeting but whether it will be enough to help him I'm not sure. I'm hoping to be able to lay off at shorter.
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  20. #357
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    Looks like Kameko is heading for the Prix Jacques Le Marois next weekend ground permitting. Palace Pier will be tough to beat but the current 10s on Kameko looks big.
    Pretty much confirmed for the Juddmonte now. I think he's overpriced at 11/2. I would have him shorter than Lord North for sure and whilst the fav is top class I feel no matter how good a horse is from that operation there's always a possibility of a poor run in a way there isn't from a high class Gosden/Ballydoyle inmate.

  21. #358
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    I like the look of the recently well backed (anti post) William Bligh in the Denford Stakes. I wasn't sure if he'd run, given he was beaten at short odds in a handicap at Glorious Goodwood last time. However, I checked oddschecker: He is now 4/1 from 8/1 so on that evidence he will be a runner.

    I almost think at 4/1 he is too short to back at this stage. God knows what will be declared on Thursday I suppose.

    I also plan to back Sea Of Faith in the Geoffrey Freer. Hopefully one of us will get it right, Euro.
    William Bligh confirmed to run. He'll do for me.

    I think I am now in the Tritonic camp in the Geoffrey Freer.

  22. #359
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    Breathtaking Look runs in the Hungerford.

    I like her a lot she is very genuine but maybe just a bit too one dimensional at this level. She wants to make all every time so we know she'll try that again. I suppose at 10/1 it's an each way price.
    Last edited by Marb; 13th August 2020 at 12:42 PM.

  23. #360
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Pretty much confirmed for the Juddmonte now. I think he's overpriced at 11/2. I would have him shorter than Lord North for sure and whilst the fav is top class I feel no matter how good a horse is from that operation there's always a possibility of a poor run in a way there isn't from a high class Gosden/Ballydoyle inmate.
    Agree. I too would have him 2nd fav.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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