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  1. #321
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    One more Handicap this season to anaylise, which is the Balmoral Handicap this Saturday. John Gosdens Laugh Aloud is catching my eye, having been rated quite highly after a Group Three win last season. He has dropped quite a bit in the handicap from a career high mark of 110, so could run well again back in a handicap (on 101). He is 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Corals as I type. I will probably have a decent bet on him, but will wait until later in the week, as don't want to lose stake money if he doesn't run.
    Last edited by Marble; 14th October 2018 at 10:41 PM.

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  3. #322
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    The "Foxy Bingo Fur Ever Friends Handicap" at Chester on Saturday looks an interesting betting heat.

    Mark's Johnston's pair head the market. Lake Volta ran well the last day. Poets Society won at 20/1 at York.
    I guess the question is: How reliable are those two horses? Both in terms of maintaining that high level of form that they showed last time and carrying their respective weights. I'm prepared to take them both on, with AL ERAYG, at 16/1 with Boylesports. This former Qatar-owned horse, scored on his first career start in 2016 over at Maisons Laffitte, when beating the formerly trained Andre Fabre horse Repercussion (rated 101). Al Erayg was then beaten a shortish odds a couple of times in 2017 in France, before leaving F-H Graffards yard for Tim Easterby's (after being gelded). This is his first start for Tim Easterby. He's been off the track for 390 days, but showed he can win first time out in France, and is on an exploitable mark (93). I'll be having more on in terms of stake than I usually would.
    This is overpriced today, (Musselburgh 3:20). Worth another go.

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  5. #323
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    One more Handicap this season to anaylise, which is the Balmoral Handicap this Saturday. John Gosdens Laugh Aloud is catching my eye, having been rated quite highly after a Group Three win last season. He has dropped quite a bit in the handicap from a career high mark of 110, so could run well again back in a handicap (on 101). He is 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Corals as I type. I will probably have a decent bet on him, but will wait until later in the week, as don't want to lose stake money if he doesn't run.
    LA is a mare and that high rating came as a result of a win in a females' Listed race at Goodwood which she then backed up at odds-on in a weak G3 [females] race. She may have gone wrong after that as she missed her next engagement and then the rest of the season and didn't reappear until last month so well over a year off. Her reappearance was certainly promising but she has appeared to go backwards since then, restricted all the time to F&M races. In fact, she's only ever raced once against colts and that was in a Class 4 juvenile maiden race.

    It may be that they've realised she isn't going to win a decent black type race any more so they've been getting her mark down for a big handicap but it looks to me like she's out of love with the game. Having said that, she'll be on my radar purely because of the difference between her old and current ratings plus she'd be a Godolphin-in-a-handicap, which would always interest me, but any interest in a bet will be held off until the day.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  6. #324
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    Interesting. I ment to correct my comments, on her being a mare. Thanks for your feedback.

  7. #325
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    This is overpriced today, (Musselburgh 3:20). Worth another go.
    Al Erayg being hammered in the betting today.

  8. #326
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    LA is a mare and that high rating came as a result of a win in a females' Listed race at Goodwood which she then backed up at odds-on in a weak G3 [females] race. She may have gone wrong after that as she missed her next engagement and then the rest of the season and didn't reappear until last month so well over a year off. Her reappearance was certainly promising but she has appeared to go backwards since then, restricted all the time to F&M races. In fact, she's only ever raced once against colts and that was in a Class 4 juvenile maiden race.

    It may be that they've realised she isn't going to win a decent black type race any more so they've been getting her mark down for a big handicap but it looks to me like she's out of love with the game. Having said that, she'll be on my radar purely because of the difference between her old and current ratings plus she'd be a Godolphin-in-a-handicap, which would always interest me, but any interest in a bet will be held off until the day.
    Taken out today, DO.

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  10. #327
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    Just had 1 ew The Pentagon 200/1 for the melbourne cup.

  11. #328
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    There's too much of a price difference between Laurens and Happily in the QEII.

    Yes, Laurens always seems to pull out a bit more when needed but I've a suspicion we haven't seen the best of Happily all year and with the yard over the mid season dip could have a decent end of season.

    Roaring Lion is a worthy favourite but has to be taken on at such a short price back over a mile on soft ground and if it wasn't for Enable he'd surely be heading for the BC turf.

    The rest are much of a muchness and having horses like Lord Glitters, Beat The Bank and Addeybb (none of whom have won a G1) at a third of the price of dual G1 winner Happily (albeit as a 2yo), who'll also be ideally suited by a mile on this ground, is plain wrong.

    Happily e/w, 3 places 1/5 odds @ 16/1
    Last edited by wilsonl; 18th October 2018 at 3:03 PM.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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  13. #329
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    Will you follow you on Happily, Lee. Good luck.
    Last edited by Marble; 18th October 2018 at 6:45 PM.

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  15. #330
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    Have just taken 50/1 4 places, 1/4 odds with 888 about Finche in the Melbourne cup. Way overpriced
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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  17. #331
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Newcross has been entered in the Irish Ceserewitch a day after its English equivalent on the Sunday. He is certainly higher up the list to get in, No. 45 I believe, so if I had to punt him now I would definitely turn my attention towards Navan. See how they price them up.
    Surprised to see he came home in 7th in the end at Navan out of 20 + horses. I don't think we saw the best of him. He is entered up now in The Irish November Handicap on Sunday over 1M4F where hopefully he will be ridden more prominently. He should be a good ride for somebody. He would have a live chance (if declared).
    Last edited by Marble; 1st November 2018 at 4:06 AM.

  18. #332
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    Newcross declared on Sunday. Second reserve.

  19. #333
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    It's been fairly dry up here recently and although that can change very easily in the hope of no worse than gs ground at Haydock at the end of the month I've taken 17.5 on the machine about Politologue for the Betfair Chase. He's bred to stay 3m and it's possible the extra trip will bring about some improvement. Might Bite would obviously be a massive danger but you can't be afraid of one horse - esp one in the care of a trainer who could bottle out of running him.

  20. #334
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    I havent yet, though Muntadab could place if dropped in trip for Saturday, (he keeps going out like a lightbulb a furlong from home over 7F). I will take a look at yours in a minute, Dan. There is nothing with backing a couple in these races.
    Tracked down the date I thought Ayr Gold Cup was the race for Muntadab. He finished 24th out of 25 horses at Ayr. Then won three races at nice prices afterwards.

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