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Thread: Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

  1. #261
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    It looks like I've found the horse with the 'interesting' profile potentially for the Cambridgeshire in a fortnight. He was beaten at short odds in some maiden races, but is possibly being laid out for a big handicap. The horse is Hamdan Al Maktoum owned, trained by Owen Burrows, called Mafaaheem, currently priced at 25/1. He's also entered in The Dubai Duty Free at Newbury next Saturday, so I will keep an eye out for which race he is declared for, before emptying what I have left in my betting account on him. As mentioned previously, I have noticed a few of the winners of showcase handicaps from this and last season, (2016/17 & 2017/18), found bags of improvement after being gelded, often after disappointing in maiden races, and having changed trainers. Mafaaheem fits the profile nicely.
    This.

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    I hope a load come out at next declaration stage, I really do. The only reason he is still big prices is that he is 54th in the weights. The ground looked very heavy today, they pulled away from the third, that's his second win on heavy ground too. Soft/heavy ground obviously not a problem for him. See what trainer says...
    Last edited by Marb; 22nd September 2018 at 5:09 PM.

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  5. #263
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    Joel Stakes next Friday. Beat the Bank carries a penalty and Mushastry won a poor race last time out. Regal Reality is too big at 11/2 - didn't handle the ground at Haydock lto

    Sun Chariot. Laurens is a bit of a public horse nowadays and she's high class at 10f but think she's vulnerable over a mile. The Matron didn't take as much winning as perceived and she's one to take on. The French have a great record in this race and With You is the bet. She ran on again after being headed by Alpha C and Recoletos in the Marois and I hope she isn't asked to lead in this. 6/1 very fair.

  6. #264
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    This.
    I'll be looking very closely at whatever John Gosden runs in the Cambs.

    I thought maybe he was trying to get Stylehunter a penalty yesterday to get him up the weights but the rain put paid to that. If he has anything else lined up for the race it must be taken very seriously. A 5lb penalty would have taken him from 52 in the list to about 25 and got him straight in. Gosden also has Wissahickon and Tricorn (same owner as Stylehunter) safely making the cut.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  8. #265
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    I hope a load come out at next declaration stage, I really do. The only reason he is still big prices is that he is 54th in the weights. The ground looked very heavy today, they pulled away from the third, that's his second win on heavy ground too. Soft/heavy ground obviously not a problem for him. See what trainer says...
    32 on the list now, seems to have gone up to 99 in the ratings, or is carrying a four pound penalty?
    Last edited by Marb; 24th September 2018 at 8:46 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    32 on the list now, seems to have gone up to 99 in the ratings, or is carrying a four pound penalty?
    Probably a 4lb penalty.

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    Taken out, shame.

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    Still in The Silver Cambridgeshire on Friday...

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I presumed the Silver Cambs was for ones that didn't make the final field for the main event therefore being taken out of the latter would mean being taken out of the former.

    Is the Silver race a completely separate entity?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Conditions, from RP:
    race conditions £50,000 guaranteed For 3yo+ which were declared to run, but which were eliminated at the 48 hour declaration stage from the 2018 Cambridgeshire

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  15. #271
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    Anyone care to give an assessment of Mordin, (the horse not the man!). I am looking through the list trying to find the one to be on e/w. Mordin has been second about five times in lesser handicaps from what I can see. Wonder if they will stick some headgear on...

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    Had a rare ante-post bet in the Cambridgeshire on Afaak (25/1 1/4 5 places - Bet 365) Followed up his staying-on Royal Hunt Cup 2nd with an unlucky 4th in a valuable 10f h/c at Glorious. Then proved one-paced when dropped back 2f on faster ground at York, and then ran in a small field egg & spoon race which had all the hallmarks of a warm-up run (wrong at the weights, and a highly predictable slow pace). Looked a deffo runner as soon as he was taken out of the 1m gp2 at the meeting this Friday.

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  18. #273
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Had a rare ante-post bet in the Cambridgeshire on Afaak (25/1 1/4 5 places - Bet 365) Followed up his staying-on Royal Hunt Cup 2nd with an unlucky 4th in a valuable 10f h/c at Glorious. Then proved one-paced when dropped back 2f on faster ground at York, and then ran in a small field egg & spoon race which had all the hallmarks of a warm-up run (wrong at the weights, and a highly predictable slow pace). Looked a deffo runner as soon as he was taken out of the 1m gp2 at the meeting this Friday.
    Does look good value and is on my shortlist along with Original Choice.need to study form for once.

  19. #274
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Had a rare ante-post bet in the Cambridgeshire on Afaak (25/1 1/4 5 places - Bet 365) Followed up his staying-on Royal Hunt Cup 2nd with an unlucky 4th in a valuable 10f h/c at Glorious. Then proved one-paced when dropped back 2f on faster ground at York, and then ran in a small field egg & spoon race which had all the hallmarks of a warm-up run (wrong at the weights, and a highly predictable slow pace). Looked a deffo runner as soon as he was taken out of the 1m gp2 at the meeting this Friday.
    If you fancy Afaak you should probably have a saver on What's The Story. Only a neck behind him in fourth place in The Royal Hunt Cup, clearly What's The Story's best run to date. Another big field and fiercesome pace should be right up his street. He should never be a 40/1 chance.
    Last edited by Marb; 25th September 2018 at 8:34 PM.

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  21. #275
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    You're probably right, Marble, but I reckon he'll be 40/1 on the day and there will be other incentives available that aren't there now.

    No doubt I'll have three or four longshots in the race during the day! He might be one of them.
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  23. #276
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    Yes I won't be parting with any cash to back What's The Story until Friday or Saturday, he's not a certainty, but definitely as good an each way long shot as I can find in the entries at the moment. I already threw away 20 each way on Mafaaheem anti-post. Off on a slight tangent, I have made the most of a spare hour I have just had to look through the Ceserewitch. Tony Martin has the favourite in Stratum, but I like his other runner at the bottom of the weights, Newcross. Ticks a few boxes, (improver since gelded, changed trainer). The form of his second place has worked out well with the winner scoring in more valuable race since. Newcross is so low in the weights though, that I wouldn't want to back him until I could be confident he would a) make the cut..b) be declared. He has the potential to be a dark horse at the foot of the weights though. See how it goes. He is on my radar.
    Last edited by Marb; 26th September 2018 at 10:37 PM.

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  25. #277
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    I have to back Whats the story as well and 40/1 is too big.i put him up for the Lincoln after impressing me at Doncaster the previous year..
    Bit disappointed to see Queally on tbh.hes one of these jockeys that dont give it everything if he cant win.imo.

    The other one for me is RAISING SAND 40/1 this one was eyecatching in the royal hunt cup.and with Nicole Currie taking 3lb off hes better of with afaak and whats the story.the problem is he always seems to run like that.will need luck as usual and drawn 35 and whats the story is drawn 2.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Raising Sand is one of my tracker horses (from the Hunt Cup). I have to question whether he's been off an inch since then but there was some promise in his latest run. I won't be getting involved until the day, though.
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  28. #279
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    Cape of Good Hope 25/1

    Runs in the Royal Lodge on Saturday at Newmarket. The stables horses have been under a cloud all season but lately have been starting to purr along again. They've kept this one for the end of the season for a reason. Even without thinking that his form is very fair but factoring in that he is likely to come on lumps makes him a different proposition. We just might see something very smart on Saturday and that 25/1 will look very silly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Tony Martin has the favourite in Stratum, but I like his other runner at the bottom of the weights, Newcross. Ticks a few boxes, (improver since gelded, changed trainer).
    Stratum trained by Mullins.

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