Am firmly in the Mishriff camp. Will double up with Palace Pier.
Am firmly in the Mishriff camp. Will double up with Palace Pier.
All comers, all grounds, all beaten!
This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.
Took 14/1 yesterday. Looks like people are remembering. Single figure price everywhere now.Originally Posted by Desert Orchid
Illegitimi non carborundum
Outsider (16th October 2020)
Good support according to oddschecker for Sonaiyla in the Sprint. Into a general 14s now, am getting sweeter and sweeter on her chance.
Frankly Darling in the other race drifting to nearly 20/1 which is off putting, but maybe her price will shorten tomorrow. After a decent break off the track Frankly Darling can run a big race to grab a place, but the other Gosden runner and DO's fancy is a big mover in the betting, so maybe I am on the wrong Gosden runner.
Last edited by Marb; 16th October 2020 at 8:41 PM.
Drifted badly near the off and unusually badly ridden for Dettori, held up at the back and asked to make her move when they were all trying to quicken then looked after late in the day. Being prepped for America?
Illegitimi non carborundum
I'm sure the Princess Zoe story is heart warming but even money for the Prix Royal Oak next Sunday is way way unders. Call the Wind is a classy stayer who was given too much to do in the Cadran. 7/2 is very fair and I think the Chaudenay winner Valia will be his biggest danger.
I was just looking at the Becher Chase this Saturday. Looks competative with plenty of chances, although I am drawn to Smooth Stepper at this early stage.
He won at big odds of 33/1 in the Haydock Grand National trial last season. I don't know if he was intended to run in the Grand National before it was abandoned, but anyway, he is quite old aged 11 so this could be his final season, but age didn't stop him at Haydock.
That was probably his best run to date. He had future Cheltenham festival second placer, Lord Du Mesnil back in second that day, with recent Cheltenham second Yala Enki back in third place.
Overall Smooth Stepper has an excellent chase record, and he really appeals for the Becher this Saturday at 25/1. He had a satisfactory comeback the last day when 5th, that should put him spot on for this. I'll wait for final declarations before backing him though, I see he's also entered in the Welsh National.
Last edited by Marb; 29th November 2020 at 10:50 PM.
Without knowing the field, I'd say the form you refer to is very good (I backed LDM at Cheltenham on the back of it) and 25/1 would certainly appeal to me as a blind bet.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Marb (29th November 2020)
Just took 16/1 Mite Bite for the grand sefton on saturday.
I got it in a double with Cloth Cap
Grasshopper (1st December 2020), Outsider (30th November 2020)
Have the same bet with Power, though confess to feeling a little ashamed about it.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Outsider (5th December 2020)
Even I'm not that brave.
So far.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Me too!Have the same bet with Power, though confess to feeling a little ashamed about it.
I've stuck Smooth Stepper in a small for fun each way patent, I am hopeful this battle hardened handicapper will give me a run for my money, along with Tout Est Permis at Navan (1:08) and Dingo Dollar in the Grand Sefton, who might be the type to improve a fair bit after the wind operation. That's my only interest tomorrow.
Last edited by Marb; 4th December 2020 at 5:55 PM.
Outsider (5th December 2020)
I like Smooth Stepper as an each way shout tomorrow too Martin. His price doesn’t reflect his chance in the race imo.
Marb (5th December 2020)
Grand National - Le Breuil 50/1 - will need to go up 5lbs to have any chance of making the cut in April so I'm expecting a big run today leading to a cut in price.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Outsider (5th December 2020)
Fingers crossed. Trainer thinks he's back to his best after taking a long time to recover from the last 4m NHC. If he's right he must go very close today.
Desert Orchid (5th December 2020)
Won't winning the National on the back of that, even if he did run well. The race rather fell apart but even allowing VLR running to his career best you'd have to say neither LB nor KC will be winning the big one. Neither will VLR since he doesn't stay the trip.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I'm indebted to a seldom [these days] seen forumite for highlighting one for the Welsh National and the reasoning is entirely sound.
We'll know more tomorrow but the chances are Secret Reprieve will go up 12lbs or thereabouts for his win at the weekend and I was too late for the 10/1 that was on offer. I've taken 7/1 this evening and I fully agree with my my co-forumite that this will go off around the 9/4 mark. I mentioned elsewhere that Native River probably will be taken out and Secret Reprieve will only have a 4lbs penalty so will be around 8lbs well in - that's 16 lengths in soft ground at the trip, which is a huge advantage - and will almost certainly make the cut.
I'm not given to over-excitement about ante-post bets because I know the pitfalls but, as I've mentioned before, once the betting public latches on to one that is officially lobbed in the price will collapse (eg Potterman 40-12/1 and Secret Investor 20/1-15/2 in the Ladbrokes Trophy) regardless of any other factors in play.
Illegitimi non carborundum
12lbs it is so the horse will be officially 8lbs well in and if they want to make absolutely sure they could always employ someone like Millie Wonnacott (7lbs) or Jack Tudor (3lbs) to lighten the burden even more. It's down to 5/1 in places but 7s still going here and there.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I've done VIEUX LION ROUGE 20/1 boosted to 22/1 with hills.
Ran off its lowest mark for 5 yrs on saturday,140 and has also been put up 12lbs so he will be 8lb well in as well.
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