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Thread: Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

  1. #561
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Cheers, Marb. It didn't occur to me to check his his new OR compared with other novices as I thought there would be plenty higher than 152 and I wasn't aware of the extra 2lbs he was hit with this week until seeing that article you linked.

    I usually check the Weekender for stuff like that but I haven't even read that yet. I've spent most of the last couple of days concentrating on the Betfair Hurdle.

    Top novices on RPRs as per the Weekender regular feature:

    Shishkin 170
    Chatham Street Lad 163
    Envoi Allen 162
    Royale Pagaille 160
    Protektorat 160
    Monkfish 160

    That's pretty lofty company.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've taken 9/1 Royale Pagaille to win any race at the festival.

    I've only just got round to checking out the form of his win at Kempton at Christmas and it has bowled me over. I remember being seriously impressed on the day but the figures I'm coming up with are even more impressive.

    On time ratings - never the most reliable, I admit - I have him only 4lbs behind Shishkin. On form ratings, he's in the 160s.

    That would make him the most likely winner of either the RSA or NH Chase, assuming he stays and improves again, and has me worrying about my Galvin bet for the latter, which I never thought would be in jeopardy.

    I would go as far as to back him for the Gold Cup if I could get 50/1 NRNB but I'll probably have to wait for that.
    If it's any help Maurice, he went in my notebook after Haydock, and I backed him for the NH Chase at 17/1 with a boost after Kempton. Specifically, the bit you'll be interested in is I had the Kempton performance a pound higher than the rating I gave Un Temps Pour Tout at Newbury. The RPR comparison has Royale Pagaille's run 11 pounds higher than UTPT's Newbury win!

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    He's up to 156 so he's not exactly a dark one is he?

  4. #564
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    If it's any help Maurice, he went in my notebook after Haydock, and I backed him for the NH Chase at 17/1 with a boost after Kempton. Specifically, the bit you'll be interested in is I had the Kempton performance a pound higher than the rating I gave Un Temps Pour Tout at Newbury. The RPR comparison has Royale Pagaille's run 11 pounds higher than UTPT's Newbury win!
    Glad you're coming up with mega-figures too, Maruco!
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  5. #565
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    He's up to 156 so he's not exactly a dark one is he?
    About as dark as a Milky Bar but that doesn't mean he isn't over-priced (unlike a Milky Bar).

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Copied from the Longshot thread.


    An ante-post longshot for the Festival:

    Cepage 40/1 NRNB (PP) Ryanair

    I'm coming up with G1 figures for his Chepstow win the other day. The Ryanair is his only current festival entry although it's possible he goes for a handicap instead, hence I took the lower odds with the concession.

    It's arguably the hottest race of the meeting but if my figure is correct he wouldn't have many to fear, assuming they also run.
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    granger (15th January 2021)

  8. #567
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    He's up to 156 so he's not exactly a dark one is he?
    The point is he's put up a performance that is a whole lot better than 156 Slim. He could run in a Grade 1 right now. If he turned up in the three mile handicap chase (20/1 Ultima), on the first day he could **** up as a novice off 156! That also gives you some idea of his price relative to Galvin's in the National Hunt Chase.

    I have a chunky early antepost on Galvin at 25/1, but Royale Pagaille has put up a level of performance that's well ahead of Galvin, and whilst there might be more to come from Galvin at the trip, Royal Pagaille is now the more likely winner. Currently Galvin is half the price of Royale Pagaille and still available at double figure odds. So essentially Mo and I aren't putting him up as a dark horse, just as antepost value at his price.

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    Desert Orchid (16th January 2021)

  10. #568
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    I'm a big fan of Royale Pagaille.......but have reservations about his jumping at Cheltenham.

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    He jumped okay at Kempton where he put a performance in that was off the charts Darren.

    Cheltenham's fences are much softer than Kempton's these days as you know. He's also been with Venetia for two seasons now, and his jumping has improved significantly over that time, although I concede he can be guessy occasionally, and does have a mistake in him. If anything though he's beginning to look quick, low, fast, and economical generally, with a tendency to jump slightly left. All of which suggests he should jump round Cheltenham better than he did Kempton.

    Galvin is the safer jumper of the pair, and I'd say if the two of them are within a length or two at the last, because of his style, you'd be covering your eyes if you're a Royale Pagaille supporter. And for that reason you couldn't be balls beep in either. They should have the what could potentially be a very good NH Chase between them though.
    Last edited by Maruco; 17th January 2021 at 9:56 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    I'm a big fan of Royale Pagaille.......but have reservations about his jumping at Cheltenham.
    He's entered in the Peter Marsh at Haydock on Saturday, off top weight. A horse myself and Maruco backed the last day at Aintree, Smooth Stepper, is also entered. I'm sure this Venetia Williams horse is all class but it would allow a few other horses to run off lovely low weights.

    I'd be tempted to back Smooth Stepper each way. There's an inspection at Haydock tomorrow. He won on heavy there last season off a mark of 136. He had Lord Du Mesnil and Yala Enki back in second and third, so on only a four pound higher mark he'd be a major contender in this. He's 12 years old now so probably good that his trainer is giving him decent breaks between races.
    Last edited by Marb; 20th January 2021 at 4:02 PM.

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    I'd save your time Martin. The noises coming from Tellwright suggest no way is the meeting going ahead
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    I'd save your time Martin. The noises coming from Tellwright suggest no way is the meeting going ahead
    Monsoon weather all week. 0% chance its on

  15. #573
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    At the risk of incurring the wrath of the majority...

    I took 25/1 Mother Earth for the 1000G this morning after reading Simon Rowlands's blog on cadence/frequency on the ATR site.

    I wanted to check for info on my other bet, Miss Amulet, so looked up her form and the video only to notice Mother Earth finishing fast from the back at Keeneland.

    There is no data for the race but the winner made all and MA finished second from midfield, so the pace probably wasn't over-strong yet Mother Earth must have made up at least eight lengths on Miss Amulet from the turn to overtake her near the line for second place. I imagine she will get a big mark-up for it, suggesting she improved a fair bit again from the fillies' mile race at Newmarket, in which she also came from the back. (That was the race in which she and Snowfall got thier IDs muxed ip.)
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  16. #574
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Defi still looks overpriced for the Clarence House. 7/2 now at Hills

    This is surely too short a trip for Waiting Patiently. Ran a cracker in the TC in 2019 but Sandown is much stiffer.


    I'm also eyeing If the Cap Fits at in the Portman at Taunton. He was rampantly outpaced in the Feltham but stayed on like gang busters. This trip over fences could really suit. Not backing him until decs though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    I'd save your time Martin. The noises coming from Tellwright suggest no way is the meeting going ahead
    Yes what an earth was I thinking! I've been placing bets recently the night before and 70 percent of my Yankees are wiped out by the next day. It's costing me money and winners....
    Last edited by Marb; 20th January 2021 at 6:13 PM.

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    I think I better check out Meydan tomorrow.
    Last edited by Marb; 20th January 2021 at 6:30 PM.

  19. #577
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    I'd save your time Martin. The noises coming from Tellwright suggest no way is the meeting going ahead
    Makes sense to punt him for the Sky Bet with that scenario

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    Haydock looking again on Saturday.

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    'Minor miracle' according to Tellwright

    Fingers crossed
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  22. #580
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    If Haydock gets the nod, Llandinabo Lad is the biggest cert of the weekend. Currently 2/1 with Hills.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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