Nice piece that DO.
Surely a rating of 103,2lb above tesoro and 3lb above cosmelli entitles him to be up to it.
I know my thinking is not the norm,but if tim easterby had the ebor on the agenda then his runs will be geared up to and results up to it are just to protect his mark.
Plenty of time to change my mind.i just thought 40/1 was huge.my life is full of dreams.
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Thanks, Outsider. I think when it comes to the bigger races our thinking isn't that far apart (hence Sir Chauvelin, Cosmelli, Dougan, etc).
I don't go by handicap marks per se, ie a rating of 103 means it can win. In these big races it's a question of what should his mark be compared to what it is. If I rate a horse 103 and its OR is 103 then for me it simply cannot win a big handicap. For me, if its OR is 103 I'd need to be rating it at least 115, or at least with the potential to hit 115, before I'd even consider it.
In the above example my (MON) ratings are adjusted to 10-0 so my own rating for Sir Chauvelin was 108+p compared to his OR of 98.
Two's company, three's allowed.
Outsider (6th August 2018)
You deserve to get winners for the amount of work you put in.
Im just idle.i look at form sometimes but not very often.
If i see a horse catches my eye through not getting a clear run,hampered runs on,travels strongly then i upgrade the run and in my opinion(and its the one that matters,as its my money)if it can run well once it can do it again.i might have to wait but im patient.
Cosmelli was a good example.he caught my eye in last years plate where he finished 8th 100/1 but was only btn 3l.
Im sure the plan after that was to get its weight down 3 or 4 lb which she did to perfection only then to find it didnt get in.
I would have loved to know what gaye kellaway was thinking.i bet she was fuming.lol
Anyway the rest is history.
So that race over two mile that my reward was 2nd to magic city is my yard stick. Showed it acted around york and seems to handle any distance between 12 and 16 furlongs.seems to act on any going.
We do seem to think along the same lines and its good to discuss but i do get confused eas
Incidently,i almost did arch villain on sat,but chose my reward instead.
And i will say it again,i still dont know why i didnt back sir chauveliin,after all ive said about him.one of lifelong mysteries.
He even helped me win thhe ascot comp
I'm a bit like that. Like, for handicaps **** looking at all the runners. If I like one I'm punting it.Originally Posted by Outsider
So long as it works for you it's entirely valid. My brother is a like that too and does quite well. He never studies form for any race but seems to have a good memory for what he's seen and read. He'll phone me up and tell me he's backed x because he remembered it had run well in some race and thought the jockey got it beat/it wasn't trying/was unlucky etc etc.
Two's company, three's allowed.
Outsider (6th August 2018)
Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap. FIRE JET fits the profile of a very good staying handicapper. Trained by John Mackie, I think a couple of his runs this season were very good, and he hinted at a return to form last time. He is on a workable mark. I'm looking forward to seeing him over 2 miles at Ascot, and the current 16/1 should shorten up depending on him being declared tomorrow.
Last edited by Marble; 8th August 2018 at 5:02 PM.
Outsider (8th August 2018)
Declared for the Rose Of Lancaster on Saturday at Haydock over 1M2F.
Declared. Big chance.
Declared. Big chance.
I always find the Shergar Cup to be fairly pointless - I'd rather they just had a normal days racing. Just my opinion obviously.
That said - a winners a winner, so good luck Marble!
Last edited by simmo; 9th August 2018 at 2:53 PM.
Alba Gu Brath!
Marble (9th August 2018)
I'll be giving the Shergar Cup a complete miss unless a tracker alert for something comes through, in which case I'll check out the horse/race.
The whole event is just a PR stunt.
The rhyming slang works too.
I might give Saturday a complete miss as there are no serious races elsewhere. The lull between Goodwood and York.
Two's company, three's allowed.
I'm the same, unfortunately three of mine:
Bless Him
George of Hearts
Tis Marvellous
are all declared. And the latter I have on my notes as "only really being of interest at Ascot" - I didn't back him last week.
I dont blame you fellas. I will be out all day on Saturday doing some voluntary work helping a local charity. I'll check the results Saturday evening just to see if Fire Jet can do something different to most of my recent selections lol.
Last edited by Marble; 9th August 2018 at 8:27 PM.
And interested to see how Teodoro does over 10 F.
I meant to mention last night that I was going through some form and came across Teodoro's Haydock run. I can't help being suspicious when something that normally runs straight ends up 'hanging'.
In the dim and distant penumbral recesses of my mind, I vaguely recall putting together what I'd seen and studied and concluded that it's a sign that the horse is being pulled off balance deliberately so I now wonder if Haydock really was the target for Teodoro. That's the day I backed it and it was very heavily punted in from the 13/2 I took in the morning to 3/1f. So it really should be on my radar for something decent but the Ebor takes some winning!
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 9th August 2018 at 8:54 PM.
Two's company, three's allowed.
Marble (11th August 2018)
16's was a good price on this, if I may say so! See if the horse can do the talking now.
Last edited by Marble; 11th August 2018 at 1:40 PM.
Shitee
Last edited by Marble; 11th August 2018 at 1:45 PM.
Well done marble,easy money
Marble (11th August 2018)
Cheers. I only had small stakes on but really pleased. Wonder if they'll go for The Ebor or keep him at 10F now. A good horse though.
Last edited by Marble; 11th August 2018 at 3:18 PM.
Outsider (11th August 2018)
Shitshow. Bless Him backed, had no idea the ******* race was on the round course. Wouldn't have touched him. TM only in a lucky 15 which is barely breathing now.
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