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  1. #401
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    The brother phoned me to discuss Al Qaqaa. I hadn't seen the race live, just the final furlong or so. He asked me what I thought of the ride AQ got but I couldn't offer an opinion. I've since managed to have a look. I can't help thinking he's gone far too fast in front. The one that moved up early to help force the pace (My Frankel) has dropped right out and the principals have come from the back. Even the Gosden horse which tracked the pace (Grand Bazaar) then moved ahead of AQ in the straight has dropped back in the final furlong.

    The very fact that Cepheus has finished a close second reinforces my belief that AQ should have won. I was confident I didn't have to worry about him.

    It will be interesting to see if there are any sectionals anywhere for the race.
    They were probably the right tactics since he’d bowled along in front for his only victory. It was only a small field, though, and it seems the tactics were a bit overcooked by Dane O’Neill this time. I’ve never had him as highly rated as you as he has always seemed a bit weak in the finish - he did power away from what was left in his winning run (or seem to) but, otherwise, he has seemed to struggle.

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  3. #402
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    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    They were probably the right tactics since he’d bowled along in front for his only victory. It was only a small field, though, and it seems the tactics were a bit overcooked by Dane O’Neill this time. I’ve never had him as highly rated as you as he has always seemed a bit weak in the finish - he did power away from what was left in his winning run (or seem to) but, otherwise, he has seemed to struggle.
    Thanks, Barjon. I wouldn't have a problem with any horse I back making the running. In fact, I'm usually happier seeing them at or near the front. More often than not (in my opinion) it's a sign they're definitely off.

    When Al Qaqaa made all at Nwm the sectionals confirmed that he'd got it easy in front and he was the fastest finisher in the race.

    When he ran at Gwd, the form book analysis noted:

    Al Qaqaa was impressive when hammering Moomba by 8l over 1m4f at Newmarket, but the drop in trip on a different type of track didn't look likely to suit and, having not got off to the quickest of starts, he found himself further back than ideal. His rider was alert to the fact that stamina his is asset and moved him up past halfway, but he was readily done for speed as the first two went past. This track didn't look to suit either and he can show this running to be all wrong.
    So, slow start, perhaps moved too fast mid-race and probably paid for it late on. I'm not a good judge of whether a horse is acting well or otherwise on a given track but the analyst in this case comes across as pretty convinced the horse is a lot better than he showed here.

    ATR has a sectional analysis of the race and it suggests the first furlong wasn't fast but after that they've gone too fast through the next three furlongs. It looks like O'Neill has tried to ease off a bit after that but the pace picks up again, presumably when My Frankel makes his forward move. AQ was already slowing down three furlongs out and even the principals were just not as slow as the others in the final stages. Nothing in the race got an efficiency grade of better than D while AQ's was F. In O'Neill's case, for Fanny.

    I'll forgive both O'Neill and the horse this one. O'Neill is a useful jockey to have on your side, especially for Hamdans. AQ goes into the tracker as I want to recoup the losses incurred on this run. I'm pretty sure he'll oblige and if the handicapper decides to drop him a few pounds so much the better. I really thought I was punting a 100+ horse off 88 so that's how I'll keep punting him until he proves me wrong. Shandoz (89) will probably go up about 7lbs to 96 so that illustrates the kind of margin I thought I had with AQ and my rationale for getting so heavily involved at double-figure odds.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  5. #403
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Thanks, Barjon. I wouldn't have a problem with any horse I back making the running. In fact, I'm usually happier seeing them at or near the front. More often than not (in my opinion) it's a sign they're definitely off.

    When Al Qaqaa made all at Nwm the sectionals confirmed that he'd got it easy in front and he was the fastest finisher in the race.

    When he ran at Gwd, the form book analysis noted:



    So, slow start, perhaps moved too fast mid-race and probably paid for it late on. I'm not a good judge of whether a horse is acting well or otherwise on a given track but the analyst in this case comes across as pretty convinced the horse is a lot better than he showed here.

    ATR has a sectional analysis of the race and it suggests the first furlong wasn't fast but after that they've gone too fast through the next three furlongs. It looks like O'Neill has tried to ease off a bit after that but the pace picks up again, presumably when My Frankel makes his forward move. AQ was already slowing down three furlongs out and even the principals were just not as slow as the others in the final stages. Nothing in the race got an efficiency grade of better than D while AQ's was F. In O'Neill's case, for Fanny.

    I'll forgive both O'Neill and the horse this one. O'Neill is a useful jockey to have on your side, especially for Hamdans. AQ goes into the tracker as I want to recoup the losses incurred on this run. I'm pretty sure he'll oblige and if the handicapper decides to drop him a few pounds so much the better. I really thought I was punting a 100+ horse off 88 so that's how I'll keep punting him until he proves me wrong. Shandoz (89) will probably go up about 7lbs to 96 so that illustrates the kind of margin I thought I had with AQ and my rationale for getting so heavily involved at double-figure odds.
    You make a convincing case, Desert. Be interesting to see where he goes next.

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  7. #404
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Looks like Sottsass is going for the ICS. Rouget was interviewed on atr yesterday and whilst he struggled with pronouncing Leopardstown it seems clear that's where they are going. I think 12/1 is huge. He's a Group 1 horse that's been running in soft ground/no pace Group 2/3s all year.

  8. #405
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    Moss Gill is 11/4 or thereabouts for the listed Scarborough Stakes at Doncaster on Wednesday after his third placing to Battaash the last day. I reckon he is a really worthy favourite myself. Maybe Acklam Express can grab the runner up spot. I can see myself playing the above two in a reverse forecast, possibly trying to add one or two others in for a reverse tricast.
    Last edited by Marb; 7th September 2020 at 7:14 PM.

  9. #406
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    I also fancy Mubtasimah on Wednesday, who is currently second favourite for the Sceptre Stakes. She won three races on the bounce in 2019, including first time out. Mubtasimah also won first time out this season in a listed race before flopping on the all weather in early July.

    Now coming to Doncaster after a near enough 60 day break bodes really well for Mubtasimah, as she has now won twice after a break. A win double on Moss Gill and Mubtasimah on Wednesday is the plan.

    At current odds the double pays about 14/1.
    Last edited by Marb; 7th September 2020 at 7:14 PM.

  10. #407
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've just taken Miss Amulet at 50/1 for the 1000 Guineas.

    There has to be a chance that she won't stay and they seem to be talking about her in terms of being a sprinter but there's stamina back in her pedigree especially in the female line and they might train her for the just to see.

    According to my figures she put up a G1 time in winning the Lowther at York last week, 2lbs faster than Montatham (raised to 109) in the Clipper Logistics, 18lbs faster than Happy Romance (raised to 97) in the big sales race and 31lbs faster than Ataser who was raised to 86 for winning the nursery.

    Those figures are exclusive of any wfa consideration.

    If she comes back over and wins the Cheveley Park, which is entirely likely with that rating, she won't be 50/1 whether she's targeting the race or not.

    I'm half-expecting her not to run in the Guineas, which brings its obvious risk, but if she progresses further at Newmarket they might feel they have to at least give it a go.
    Bought by Coolmore...



    (I've been unable to resist another wee nibble at 50s.)
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 9th September 2020 at 6:34 AM.
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  12. #408
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Some thoughts:
    Alpine Star is interesting at 7/2 or 4s at a place for the Sun Chariot. Ultimate target given the owner is probably the Breeders Cup so it makes more sense to go for an easier race at Newmarket rather than a hot looking l'Opera.
    Golden Horde 7/1 for Champion Sprint. Thought he ran a cracker from a bad draw at Haydock DoD tends to always fine one too good at Ascot, Space Blues Foret bound and Osted is a summer ground horse.

    Looking ahead to the Jumps Chacun at 12s for the Tingle Creek and Allaho 14s for KG are winking at me. Does Willie bring either over?

  13. #409
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    I took 16/1 Stone Of Destiny for the Ayr Gold Cup immediately after Saturday's Portland win. I think I put SOD (such appropriate initials!) up on the longsot thread for one of the big handicaps earlier in the season on its old form and it looked right back to its very best the other day under different tactics and the penalty gets him in.

    I had a quick look today to see if I could steal any other value and have landed on Another Batt at 20/1. He'll definitely make the cut and the trainer likes targeting the race so if this is the aim then he might be value. He won a good 7f Meydan handicap in 2019 off 104 and a few runs later would probably have been second or third with a clear run in the Lincoln off 107. He has since disappointed and moved stables a couple of times bringing about a drop in the ratings to 93 but first time out in August for his current trainer he won nicely enough in an admittedly modest 6f race. He's up 3lbs for it which ensures he gets in and a run down the park last time (jockey claims it hung the whole way) keeps it under the radar. If the trainer has him back to his old form he's handicapped to win an average renewal off 96, a mark that in a normal year would probably only make the silver cup race.

    At any rate, it strikes me that if the trainer rates it word could get out and a gamble could develop. If not, then 20s is a decent enough punt.

    I still think Summerghand might be the winner but I can back him nearer the day.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th September 2020 at 1:37 PM.
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  14. #410
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    I've had a pop at the Cesarewitch - Leoncavallo 16/1

    Now with David Pipe, the trainer appears to have sweetened him up and, once rated 145 over hurdles, he'd have a favourite's chance if he could translate that ability back to the Flat off 83. I can't really see him making the cut off that mark so they might try to pick up a penalty beforehand although I'm pretty sure marks in the 80s have got in recently.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  15. #411
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    Not necessarily ante-post now that the final decs are out but without studying the race I've taken Wise Counsel for the Ayr Gold Cup (14/1 and if better comes up through the day I'll take it too).

    Summerghand has been my main fancy since he won the Stewards' Cup. O'Meara is mob-handed in the race but has taken the horse out yet Tudhope doesn't ride any of the others. It looks like he's been talked into Wise Counsel by the Clipper Logistics people who own the horse. That's just speculation on my part but if it's true I can't see double-figure odds lasting the day and that's part of the gamble. I'm anticipating a price collapse. And Cox is no mean target trainer. With just two runs this season, it looks a year-long plot.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  16. #412
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    DT has a retainer with Clipper Logistics.
    “Today’s scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation, and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality. ”
    ― Nikola Tesla

  17. #413
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've had a pop at the Cesarewitch - Leoncavallo 16/1

    Now with David Pipe, the trainer appears to have sweetened him up and, once rated 145 over hurdles, he'd have a favourite's chance if he could translate that ability back to the Flat off 83. I can't really see him making the cut off that mark so they might try to pick up a penalty beforehand although I'm pretty sure marks in the 80s have got in recently.
    I've doubled this with Tenbury Wells 14/1 in the Cambridgeshire.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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