Page 28 of 106 FirstFirst ... 1823242526272829303132333878 ... LastLast
Results 541 to 560 of 2119

Thread: Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

  1. #541
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Should we all be smashing this?
    I would need to make sure the card is as originally scheduled, ie SP running 8lbs well in.

    Whether you want to 'smash' a horse in a 3m6f race in heavy ground has to be a personal decision. I'm not saying I would use the word 'smash' in relation to my bet either but the stake is several times my normal bet these days.

    There's always a slight uncertainty for me when a race is postponed a week or two. I sometimes wonder if a trainer has got one primed to explode on the original day whether the fuse will dampen a bit during the delay.

    Knowing my luck the fvcker will be withdrawn
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 4th January 2021 at 8:03 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  2. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Slim (5th January 2021)

  3. #542
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I would need to make sure the card is as originally scheduled, ie SP running 8lbs well in.
    'A nice position to be in' - Williams relieved as Secret Reprieve escapes rise in weights..


    Vieux Lion Rouge is also 8lb well in and now takes his chance when he wouldn't have done so if the race had gone ahead as normal...


    The Ante-post rules stink...and are inconsistent with each bookmaker.

    You lose your money if your horse doesn't take part but you have to take on re-entrants with no say in the matter!

    Bet365 paid out on a non event...
    Last edited by Maxbet; 4th January 2021 at 8:36 PM.

  4. #543
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    3,410
    Thanks
    600
    Thanked 581 Times in 486 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    'A nice position to be in' - Williams relieved as Secret Reprieve escapes rise in weights..


    Vieux Lion Rouge is also 8lb well in and now takes his chance when he wouldn't have done so if the race had gone ahead as normal...


    The Ante-post rules stink...and are inconsistent with each bookmaker.

    You lose your money if your horse doesn't take part but you have to take on re-entrants with no say in the matter!

    Bet365 paid out on a non event...
    Not really the case here but in the past it’s been a different course and different ground. I recall backing an Irish horse AP for the King George years ago when Kempton was frozen off and it got rerouted to Sandown. No way I’d have backed it at Sandown but Ladbrokes insisted the bet stood. Unsurprisingly the horse didn’t travel


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  5. #544
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    Vieux Lion Rouge is also 8lb well in and now takes his chance when he wouldn't have done so if the race had gone ahead as normal...
    I had forgotten about VLR (probably because I didn't envisage him running after Haydock) but he has to be backed at 20/1 (5 places - see longshot thread). I'm not convinced the Haydock form is as good as it looked but I'm happy to pay to cover being wrong.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  6. #545
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    I hope that's true, Double. I've just spent 3 hours looking at the Welsh National on Saturday. I hope I haven't wasted my time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    -3 every night of the week. Until the covers are lifted on Saturday morning, who knows how hard the ground will be. They laid them on heavy ground.
    2.30 Friday...snow forecast
    Last edited by Maxbet; 7th January 2021 at 1:33 PM.

  7. #546
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    No frost under the covers, according to a report this morning. They're just a touch worried about how much snow arrives this afternoon.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  8. #547
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    No frost under the covers, according to a report this morning. They're just a touch worried about how much snow arrives this afternoon.
    Forecast 9pm - 9am...snow

  9. #548
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    Forecast 9pm - 9am...snow

    That might be a worry although I'm sure the RP weather report just said 'mainly cloudy'.

    Fingers crossed even if, apart from the big race, it's a pretty duff card.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  10. #549
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    My long shot was taken out today. Ah well.

  11. #550
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Today
    A frosty and bright start, with some areas seeing freezing fog patches that will be slow to clear. Things soon turn cloudier, however, as a band of precipitation moves south - giving outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow. Feeling cold. Maximum temperature of 6°C.

    Tonight
    Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow continue southwards through the night. Widespread frosts are expected, locally severe over any snow cover, and turning icy in places. Minimum temperature -3°C.

  12. The Following User Says Thank You to Maxbet For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (7th January 2021)

  13. #551
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'm indebted to a seldom [these days] seen forumite for highlighting one for the Welsh National and the reasoning is entirely sound.

    We'll know more tomorrow but the chances are Secret Reprieve will go up 12lbs or thereabouts for his win at the weekend and I was too late for the 10/1 that was on offer. I've taken 7/1 this evening and I fully agree with my my co-forumite that this will go off around the 9/4 mark. I mentioned elsewhere that Native River probably will be taken out and Secret Reprieve will only have a 4lbs penalty so will be around 8lbs well in - that's 16 lengths in soft ground at the trip, which is a huge advantage - and will almost certainly make the cut.

    I'm not given to over-excitement about ante-post bets because I know the pitfalls but, as I've mentioned before, once the betting public latches on to one that is officially lobbed in the price will collapse (eg Potterman 40-12/1 and Secret Investor 20/1-15/2 in the Ladbrokes Trophy) regardless of any other factors in play.
    I see Simon Rowlands has advised Secret Reprieve, reasoning that his true odds should be shorter than the 4/1 on offer this evening in a place or two. He doesn't say what price he thinks it should be but I'm wondering how often he tips a 4/1 favourite in a race of this nature.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. #552
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I see Simon Rowlands has advised Secret Reprieve, reasoning that his true odds should be shorter than the 4/1 on offer this evening in a place or two. He doesn't say what price he thinks it should be but I'm wondering how often he tips a 4/1 favourite in a race of this nature.
    3/1 fav and 11/4 fav won 2 of the last four runnings....

    The terrible ground conditions very often narrow the field down..when it's not abandoned...
    Last edited by Maxbet; 7th January 2021 at 8:09 PM.

  15. #553
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    He’s a worthy fav but is 1/5 over fences and has fell already in non novice chases. And this is a brutal race in these conditions.

    4/1 ? No thanks. There have been stronger favourites than him beaten in this over the years and I’ll prefer to take the double figure price e/w about The Two Amigos who is likely to run his race and if Griffiths can get the fractions better than last year will have these fully strung out 4f from home.

    Unlikely to go ahead anyway but as I’m too twatted to look it up, when was the last trial winner to follow up ?. Feels like a long time.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 7th January 2021 at 9:59 PM.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  16. The Following User Says Thank You to wilsonl For This Useful Post:

    Marb (7th January 2021)

  17. #554
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    We'll know more tomorrow but the chances are Secret Reprieve will go up 12lbs or thereabouts for his win at the weekend and I was too late for the 10/1 that was on offer. I've taken 7/1 this evening and I fully agree with my my co-forumite that this will go off around the 9/4 mark.
    Nice to be right once in a while
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  18. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Desperate Dan (9th January 2021)

  19. #555
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    Big difference between being right and how you spoke about this bet. You grabbed my attention. Well done. A superb shout.

  20. The Following User Says Thank You to Slim For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (9th January 2021)

  21. #556
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    I've taken 9/1 Royale Pagaille to win any race at the festival.

    I've only just got round to checking out the form of his win at Kempton at Christmas and it has bowled me over. I remember being seriously impressed on the day but the figures I'm coming up with are even more impressive.

    On time ratings - never the most reliable, I admit - I have him only 4lbs behind Shishkin. On form ratings, he's in the 160s.

    That would make him the most likely winner of either the RSA or NH Chase, assuming he stays and improves again, and has me worrying about my Galvin bet for the latter, which I never thought would be in jeopardy.

    I would go as far as to back him for the Gold Cup if I could get 50/1 NRNB but I'll probably have to wait for that.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Marb (15th January 2021)

  23. #557
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    I've just read the article on him via the RP, not sure if you've seen it, DO?
    Last edited by Marb; 15th January 2021 at 2:19 PM.

  24. #558
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Paper or website, Marb?

    Bookies up here are shut so wouldn't have access to it that way.

    I don't buy the paper and only use the website for double-checking some form.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 15th January 2021 at 2:44 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  25. #559
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    Would it not make sense to take 8s for the NHC at Powers with the NRNB concession.

    RSA a very tough ask for horses sans Festival form

  26. #560
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Paper or website, Marb?

    Bookies up here are shut so wouldn't have access to it that way.

    I don't buy the paper and only use the website for double-checking some form.
    https://www.racingpost.com/news/late...agaille/468225

    I hope I didn't panic you as if the horse was injured or something!
    Last edited by Marb; 15th January 2021 at 3:39 PM.

  27. The Following User Says Thank You to Marb For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (15th January 2021)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •