Betfair Hurdle

[Danny]

Yeah as always. The ones that always worry me most are horses with first time tack, wind ops and things like that whilst these things don't always improve a horse there are quite a few horses in here who are trying something for the first time and its sods law that at least one of them will improve beyond recognition. I always take a view as well that in the case of first time blinkers, pieces and tongue ties e.t.c that they bare more significance on the "big days" i.e if you are going to apply a piece of equipment that you think will improve your horse your not going to do it in a small race your going to wait for the big pot.

Just for the record

Bleu et Rouge- Tongue tie
Moonracer-Wind op + Tongue tie
Spirit of the games- Pieces (Actually one I have as well handicapped still but didn't think the drop back in trip would suit)
Lalor- Wind op
Couer Blimey- Pieces
Zalvados- blinkers

[Desert Orchid]

Looking at the table at oddschecker tonight, it looks like Irish Roe is now favourite pretty much across the board.

It also looks like she is top-rated on RPRs. She's top-rated on Topspeed's ratings.

I'll be gobsmacked if she isn't top-rated with Timeform too.

[wilsonl]

As much as I wanted to get involved I’m too wary of carrying small field graded race form into something like this.

You said it yourself DO, I remember Vicario Di Bray only too well. Had only been betting a few years and couldn’t see how he could be beaten.

Her win - and form - prior to that entitles her to be a low to mid 130s mare for me, not the rating she’s been given for running Maria’s Benefit so close.

She may well win but I just don’t think she’s got the scope of something like Jenkins, Kalashnikov or even Laylor and 12/1 was a fair price.

[Desert Orchid]

IR definitely favourite across the board. The "12/1" at Sportingbet doesn't exist. It's only 8/1.

[Double J]

My mind boggles me looking at the field so sticking to what j have and will also be topping up on Lalor and Kayf Grace.

Kayf Grace is my big fancy for this as I stated earlier in the thread. Should be an interesting watch anyhow. I have a soft spot for Moon Racer, I won't be backing him but won't begrudge a victory either.

Read and heard Gary Moore has a half decent record in this race? He sends one of the favourites I think, so will look into that one a little more. Other than that, a Kayf Grace or a Lalor win (Lalor especially) will make me a very happy man.

[Danny]

Mate if anything is to nut the mare on the Jamstick then I hope it's Lalor it would at least take the edge off, knowing someone else has had a right old tickle !

Best of luck bud.

[Kauto Abu]

8.7mm of rain at Newbury in the past 24 hours. Soft - G/S in places.


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[Danny]

I've been having a look at this again in terms of putting something together in terms of a combi fc/tc. I've had this nagging feeling all week that as good as Irish Roe looks on paper that she won't win but I do get the feel that she's fairly solid for a first 3 finish. Having already sided with Lough Derg Spirit as a saver which I'm happy with as a selection even though it looks like he'll be available at a bigger price than I've took but I think that is more to do with jockey bookings than form. I still feel he's the best of the Henderson five.

The one that keeps nagging at me is Spirit of the games at around 25/1 generally. I think the Lanzarote form is going to work out fairly strongly. Top of the game has already won out of that race and although Red Indian was beaten yesterday ( farcical race ) I still feel its a strong line of form. The worry is that the drop back in trip (first try at 2 miles) wouldn't really look to suit. Having watched the Lanzarote back a couple of times I don't think it will be the inconvenience I first thought it would be. If the first time pieces liven him up then I think this is another one with a solid shout. So I think he's the one I'm going to add for the exotics.

So its Irish Roe, Lough Derg spirit and Spirit of the games for combi fc's and Tc's.

[Desert Orchid]

Yes. Irish Roe has always been about the value at 20/1 and 16/1. If she does end up, as she really should, about 4/1 then the current 9/1 will still look like value.

But she is top rated on form, seemingly with just about everybody, and was progressive going into her last race so I find it less easy just to dismiss the form out of hand. I'm also habitually distrusting of mares-only races but this one was backed up on the clock... which brings its own cloud in terms of the bounce... but she's taken races in quick succession before.

My own plan now is to lay off if she does shorten up again as well as to back her up with a few others at longer odds (imvho) than their form entitles them to be. I have a few in mind but want to go through the form again today before deciding.

[tiggers1972]

I'm thinking Verdana Blue.

[viking]

I'm thinking Verdana Blue.

I backed Verdana Blue last night at 12s having nearly pulled the trigger at a bigger price earlier in the week but not trusting NJH to run all of his entries. I thought he wasn’t given a hard race last time out and this was a longer term target for a horse who’d previously looked progressive


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[TheBear]

On a similar line I like Bleu Et Rouge. I have him down as better left handed and from the pick of his novice form I reckon he still has a few pounds in his back pocket over hurdles.


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[Kauto Abu]

I backed Verdana Blue last night at 12s having nearly pulled the trigger at a bigger price earlier in the week but not trusting NJH to run all of his entries. I thought he wasn’t given a hard race last time out and this was a longer term target for a horse who’d previously looked progressive


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I would be very sweet on her chances only for the ground. She needs much better ground than she’ll get tomorrow.


I’m on the Irish Roe train at 16/1. Her last race was very good but the race before that was equally as good. She beat Mohaayed by half a length at Doncaster who went on to place 3rd, just shy of 4L, behind the 2nd placed The New One in the Christmas Hurdle. That’s some of the best form lines on offer in this race. She takes her racing well and the similarities between Doncaster and Newbury are striking.

On a side note I chanced an ante post ew double of Irish Roe 16/1 with Mohaayed 33/1 for the County Hurdle.


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[Tanlic]

Brian Ellison's Nietzsche, Kayf Grace and can't leave out Gary Moore's Knocknannus (Nap)

[Desert Orchid]

Re Irish Roe - sorry to keep boring y'all with her handicap mark - I don’t have stats to hand but I imagine the average price of a horse in a handicap with 11lbs in hand officially is probably close to even money. Given the nature of this race I should expect longer than that but not the 10/1 that she is in places as I write.

To put it into clearer perspective, last season Ballyandy won this by ¾ length from Movewiththetimes, the pair six lengths clear and the rest strung out. Ballyandy went up 12lbs and Movewiththetimes 10lbs. The year before, Agrapart went up 13lbs for winning by 11 lengths.

If she is genuinely worth her rating and runs her race, Irish Roe will be very difficult to beat but not unbeatable. There might be something in there with 12lbs or more in hand that we don't know about, or somebody might nobble the mare, or she might have no luck in running.

But I honestly think 10/1 is still tremendous value.

[Danny]

I agree Des and the fact its still an e/w price with however many places they are paying barring accidents or trouble in running it would be hard to see 4-5 horses being better handicapped so it should be as risk free bet as you can get (famous last words). The money will come of that I'm sure the real smart money always comes late in the day Imo.

I haven't had any more I've just stuck with the bet at 25's although I did have a couple of e/w doubles when she was 16's but not for much. Mohaayed (County) and CML (ChH w/o Boo).

I have however rightly or wrongly made my combi's far more tusky than is sensible or advisable but every now and then the beast in me likes to unleash a decent wedge on a real long shot.

I just like to mix it up a bit

[Grey]

[QUOTEKayf Grace is my big fancy for this as I stated earlier in the thread. Should be an interesting watch anyhow. I have a soft spot for Moon Racer, I won't be backing him but won't begrudge a victory either.
][/QUOTE]

Double J, you speak for me too

[Danny]

Just been going through the race again to see if I can spot anything else interesting and there were a couple of long shots that interested me including the one Tanlic has put forward. Other than that though I think If I fancy Spiritofgames a fair bit you could make a very similar case for Coeur Blimey. Also ran well in the Lanzarote but didn't look to see the trip out so might be more suited than Spirit by the step back and would be better off at the weights. Also tried in first time pieces. The one right at the bottom Zalvados quite closely matched with Coeur Blimey on a run at Cheltenham looks progressive tried in first time blinkers (apparently to help tidy up the jumping) and gets to carry 10 stone dead due to his claimer which if conditions are testing I always feel is an advantage when most of the field are carrying 11 stone plus.

The main threats to Irish Roe are all now seemingly over 25/1 I fear this bunch more than I do some of the more fancied types.

Be interesting to see how it all works out.

[Outsider]

I went for sIlver streak 16/1 and i dont see why the ones he beat should turn the tables really,but and theres always a but,theres a chance that some trainers didnt really try with this extra big prize in mind so im also doing BLEU ET ROUGE 14/1.

good luck.

[Tanlic]

[QUOTEKayf Grace is my big fancy for this as I stated earlier in the thread. Should be an interesting watch anyhow. I have a soft spot for Moon Racer, I won't be backing him but won't begrudge a victory either.
]

Double J, you speak for me too[/QUOTE]

Seriously thought about backing Moonracer but David just doesn't fill me with the confidence Martin did 20 years ago when pulling of a gamble.
Thought good enough to run in the Champion Hurdle but despite being backed ran like a 50/1 shot and as if we needed a reminder he's backed again at Aintree and finishes unplaced..

Immense talent but sooooo disappointing like you I gave him a miss