Betfair Hurdle

[sunybay]

Irish Roe still 12/1 right now. Has to go off a good bit shorter once the pull in the weights he's getting becomes known to the general punter.

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surprising
very good chance
will be 4/1 on the day

[Desert Orchid]

Irish Roe still 12/1 right now. Has to go off a good bit shorter once the pull in the weights he's getting becomes known to the general punter.

Absolutely. This is the point I tried to make after her run against Marias Benefit:

Yes. Initial back-of-fag-pack calcs put her on 146 before any consideration of the times on the day. That would put her in with a favourite's chance, I'd say.
...


Edit - I should also mention that it will be interesting to see what the handicapper actually does. It looks like it was a true-run race so it's more likely that he will take the form somewhere close to face value, in which case he could put her up 12lbs.

I think once that sinks in with the general betting public - ie that she's officially ridiculously well handicapped - and gets a proper mention on the racing TV programmes, it's unlikely she'll be a double-figure price.

And later:

I was just a pound out. I can live with that.

I still believe once the general betting public, not to mention the media pundits, realise this the price will start to contract.

In theory, she will be unusually well-handicapped. Were it an ordinary Saturday handicapped she'd be entitled to be evens favourite.

I really do expect a monster gamble to develop through the week.

Knowing my luck, though, the meeting will be off, bets will be voided and she'll have to race next under her new mark!

Edit - I've just gone in again at 10/1 NRNB with Betfair although they're limiting me to £20. The other day they wouldn't allow me any money on anything so that's a bonus.

[Danny]

As well in as she is officially I'd still be looking scratching around for a decent claimer as I think she's a bit vulnerable in a finish especially if the ground comes up testing. She looks a very straight forward type and hurdles really well (touch wood) so should be an easy enough ride. I think that extra bit off weight off her back would just help here see it out at the business end. It may be a bit harsh on Henry Brooke but at the end of the day Peter Atkinson won't get too many shots at a pot this big and if I were him I'd certainly be trying to give her every opportunity to land it.

[Marb]

Good luck to Danny and co with Irish Roe.

I started off liking Poppy Kay, then Silver Streak, then Lalor, then Gary Moore's horse, now Irish Roe!

I haven't backed any yet...and they can't all win, unless there is a five-way dead heat!

What a hot looking handicap hurdle this looks like eh?

Worthy of the reputation that this race has, for sure.

FWIW, Chti Balko doesn't really have the form for this, but does like to front run and is probably better than what he's shown thus far, and would be a decent back-to-lay off in running. I think he's best of the rank outsiders, and may run some sort of race, but probably won't trouble the judge.

Back-to-lay I think.

[Danny]

Marb read a piece somewhere today that McCain says he runs either or. Your fella will only go there if ground is heavyish...if not he runs Waterlord instead so just watch your bets re ante-post rules.

Edit- it's on Atr site Marble.

[Marb]

Top man, cheers Danny.

I'm a small bettor, and 95 percent of my betting is for a sporting interest for a sport that's a hobby.

I do occasionally bet bigger amounts but only if I've had a good win on the dogs.

I don't use my Betfair account that often these days, but might log in and deposit to have a few kopeks on Balko after final declarations, if he gets the heavy ground. Back-to-lay off stake plus a bit profit is my plan. But we'll see.

I'm off to read the ATR article.

[Danny]

No worries pal.

[Marb]

Yep, I need the bog, (excuse the pun).

[Marb]

Lets say ground did come up heavy...what horses at top of market would or wouldn't act/perform in those conditions do we think?

Balko's a Frenchie with a clear preference for it, so at least Donald McCain is making sense lol.

[Desert Orchid]

I've taken a little sickness insurance on Divin Bere at 40/1.

He's now Nicholls's only runner (from four entries) with Sam T-D already seemingly jocked up so with COD skipping the race I’d hate to think the yard won it and I wasn’t on!

A bad run on his seasonal debut at Ascot requires forgiving but he previously ran Défi Du Seuil (OR now 157) to 1½ lengths at level weights at Aintree. He’s maybe flattered by that and he’s changed stables a few times but whether that’s down to the horse or the owner’s whims, I don’t know.

Nicholls has too good a record in this race to make DB such a big price. I don’t imagine he’ll be anywhere near that price on the day.

[Desert Orchid]

Irish Roe only gets a couple of quiet mentions in the Weekender, which surprises me, although their headline tipster, Paul Kealy, says he's only opposing her 'reluctantly' on the grounds that she had a hard race last time and might not have had sufficient recovery time. It's a worry I share but was a risk worth taking at 20/1 and 16/1 at the time, with a view to laying off.

As sunybay says, 4/1 should be closer to her true price.

[tiggers1972]

I've taken a little sickness insurance on Divin Bere at 40/1.

He's now Nicholls's only runner (from four entries) with Sam T-D already seemingly jocked up so with COD skipping the race I’d hate to think the yard won it and I wasn’t on!

A bad run on his seasonal debut at Ascot requires forgiving but he previously ran Défi Du Seuil (OR now 157) to 1½ lengths at level weights at Aintree. He’s maybe flattered by that and he’s changed stables a few times but whether that’s down to the horse or the owner’s whims, I don’t know.

Nicholls has too good a record in this race to make DB such a big price. I don’t imagine he’ll be anywhere near that price on the day.

I'd be seriously worried about the rating of Defi Du Seuil DO.

[Desert Orchid]

I've taken a little sickness insurance on Divin Bere at 40/1.

He's now Nicholls's only runner (from four entries) with Sam T-D already seemingly jocked up so with COD skipping the race I’d hate to think the yard won it and I wasn’t on!

A bad run on his seasonal debut at Ascot requires forgiving but he previously ran Défi Du Seuil (OR now 157) to 1½ lengths at level weights at Aintree. He’s maybe flattered by that and he’s changed stables a few times but whether that’s down to the horse or the owner’s whims, I don’t know.

Nicholls has too good a record in this race to make DB such a big price. I don’t imagine he’ll be anywhere near that price on the day.

I should also maybe add that the owner-trainer-jockey combo won the £100k 3m handicap hurdle at Sandown last weekend.

I'd be seriously worried about the rating of Defi Du Seuil DO.

I don’t think there was too much to argue about its accuracy last season, trigger. The third and fifth in the Triumph were first and second at Punchestown. The fifth and sixth at Aintree, beaten 25 and 30 lengths, were second and first respectively in handicaps last weekend off not dissimilar marks. DDS just hasn’t sparked this season but neither has the trainer.

[Len Madeiros]

Kalashnikov for me. He went slightly wrong at Sandown in the Tolworth, but he lost a shoe as a result of an overreach - could be a few pounds well in. Anyway, I've followed the horse since early November, seeing him trounce a big field by ten lengths at Wetherby. Trainer Amy Murphy seems to be in rude form at the moment, too.

[Danny]

Fair shout that Len wasn't aware of the losing a shoe incident so cheers for that.

It must have been a day for savers Des but I've plumped for Lough Derg Spirit generally a 14/1 shot but I've used a price boost with laddies to get 16's which I think will look more than fair on the day.

Lightly raced and some bits and pieces of his form could make him look well handicapped. Held a comfortable victory over Coup de pinceau last term who won up at Mussleburgh at the weekend and is now rated 135 only 3lbs lower than LDS is now. Won the supreme novice trial up at Musselburgh himself last season with a decent victory over Peter the Mayo man receiving 3lb and PMM was rated 142. The figure I've got for this race points to him being well handicapped as does the third horse home on that occasion not being disgraced in Gr1 company at Aintree.

First time up this season ran a decent 2nd in the Elite hurdle where he did the donkey work and in fairness with hindsight I think they'd have set a stronger pace as seemingly well beaten turning for home getting outpaced stayed on well again past Flying Tiger to nab second spot. That actually ties in quite closely with the form of Irish roe. LDS beat him 1.75 lengths receiving 4lb, IR beat him 8L receiving 12lb and LDS has to concede 4lbs to IR here. Its very much same sort of ball park. Flying tiger ran well enough in the Fighting fifth in between these runs to suggest he still will have a bit to play with come Cheltenham in the spring. Close enough to Irving off levels and far enough in front of 2 horses who finished 1-2 in a race next time out to give the form lines through him a solid look.

I also like the run style of being handy when it comes to the Betfair Hurdle quite often horses on the front end stack them up and kick when turning for home. Its a lesson that was expensive in the learning backing hold up types in races that ended up being slowly run. The approach to the race which was completely intentional as I recall Henderson saying after the Elite that he'd put him away now until the Betfair (looking likely he uttered a truthful word ) strikes me as he knows the horse has a bit up its sleeve and has protected his mark for the big day. I actually think this is his best chance of the 5 runners he has at this point despite him seemingly favouring Kayf Grace and Jenkins although I still have my suspicions that the latter will not run even though his exchange price is tight and honest Henderson is suggesting he will.

So that's my saver for the race and I'll probably have a decent attempt at the forecast if the prices hold up until 365 allow the bet.

[Danny]

Irish Roe only gets a couple of quiet mentions in the Weekender, which surprises me, although their headline tipster, Paul Kealy, says he's only opposing her 'reluctantly' on the grounds that she had a hard race last time and might not have had sufficient recovery time. It's a worry I share but was a risk worth taking at 20/1 and 16/1 at the time, with a view to laying off.

As sunybay says, 4/1 should be closer to her true price.

That's not really a concern I share although always respectful of Kealy's views but she took in 3 races in a month prior to Christmas and in my view improved each time. Touch wood but she appears to be one who takes her racing well. She travelled well within herself for most of the race and closed the gap fairly easily but failed to go past although the race was run at a good pace it didn't appear to be a slog or that she had raced hard from a long way out.

[Double J]

Lalor standing his ground means I'm at least getting a run for My money.

Outside of that, having quit my job (long story, start a new one next week) I've got some welcome time on my hands to have a look at the field and see any value.

Divin Bere mentioned above is one I have scribbled down, but will proper look into it.

Hopefully I won't be able to get away from Lalor or Kayf Grace that I've already invested in. I'd also be interested in Irish Roe, you just have to wonder how much has been taken out of the horse after a hard race against Maria's Benefit only a couple of weeks ago.

[Desert Orchid]

Irish Roe going blue this evening and maybe on the verge of taking over as favourite?

[edgt]

Knocknanuss hopefully.
ML Winters won a p2p and Bumper with him before selling him.
WPM was dead keen for him but the horse was unsound at Cheltenham January sales that year.
Dam is from the family of Dato Star so ease in ground will help him.
A big ask on what he has done but he has an engine for sure.

[Double Handful]

Irish Roe going blue this evening and maybe on the verge of taking over as favourite?

Unibet still showing 14/1 on oddschecker, which is way bigger than anyone else. Don't have an account myself, so not sure it's actually available if you went to place the bet.

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