Betfair Hurdle

[Desert Orchid]

All points accepted, GH.

On top of all that, COD is only a 5yo.

However, to remind people of my original thoughts:

He is Nicholls's only entry in the CH when he has hurdlers in the yard rated in the mid-high 150s.

Zarkandar went up to 160 after winning the Betfair Hurdle as a 5yo off 151 and went up to 163 for being fifth in the Champion. If COD is considered a 160 horse at home he won't win a CH but he could win the Betfair. The CH bets are NRNB just in case he does go and win at Newbury. Zarkandar was only 9/1 at Cheltenham.

I'm really trying to read the trainer rather than the horse and nick a bit of value but I'm comfortable with the risks.

[Grasshopper]

Acknowleged, DO. Thinking outside the box is generally what keeps you ahead of the game, in the long run.

[Tanlic]

Yes and maybe 1 year you get one right Like Hardy Eustace 33/1. could be this year or it could take 20 years before it happens again

In the meantime get your minds around this one and give us your best anti post selection for this years renewal https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkEOwgwpZg8

[wilsonl]

I think the NRNB bet for the Champion Hurdle at big prices is decent. If he performs averagely or worse in the Betfair - presuming he runs - then he won't go so you'll get your money back. On the other hand if he wins you'd be sitting on a nice price.

Very little downside as I see it.

[Grasshopper]

There's a flip-side to that too, Lee.

I'm not suggesting that it applies in COD's case, but sometimes you will take a punt along similar lines, only for the horse to not run to expectations in his prep.........and the ba*stard ends-up running as a no-hoper in the target-race anyway!

[Desert Orchid]

There's a flip-side to that too, Lee.

I'm not suggesting that it applies in COD's case, but sometimes you will take a punt along similar lines, only for the horse to not run to expectations in his prep.........and the ba*stard ends-up running as a no-hoper in the target-race anyway!

Cue Elixir De Nutz...

[wilsonl]

True Grassy but we're talking Paul Nicholls and not Clive Brittain *. A poor performance from Cliffs of Dover and I doubt he'd throw him into the Champion on his second run from a long lay off.

* He was a flat trainer

[Tanlic]

I think the NRNB bet for the Champion Hurdle at big prices is decent. If he performs averagely or worse in the Betfair - presuming he runs - then he won't go so you'll get your money back. On the other hand if he wins you'd be sitting on a nice price.

Very little downside as I see it.

Seems like no one can read here..he is not running in the Betfair. It is not even on PN's mind

[wilsonl]

Seems like no one can read here..he is not running in the Betfair. It is not even on PN's mind

Read what ?. Where's it say he 100% won't run ?

[Tanlic]

Read what ?. Where's it say he 100% won't run ?

He said the next available hurdle race for him to run in was the Kingwell.. if I am not mistaken that comes after the BETFAIR...So unless he is lying his face of the BETFAIR is not being considered


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[bigeeps]

Hmmm... a wee glimmer of optimism this evening...

I thought maybe I was reading a wee bit too much into PN's comments today about COD missing Newbury in the sense that it seemed he was implying that the ground would be the real reason for missing it, and finishing off with a "we shall see" or words to that effect. The suspicious bastert in me wondered whether he was still seriously considering it but wanted to keep the horse under the radar.

Having followed you in DO I think the blue is because they haven't declared it for the flat race it was entered in tomorrow.

The other day it had drifted to 50-odd at Betfair. Tonight it's back in to 37 and blue with a couple of firms.

I just wonder...

Having followed you in on this DO I wonder if the reason for the blue is the fact that it isn't declared for the flat race over the weekend

[Desert Orchid]

No idea, bigeeps, but nice to see you posting again here! Hope you and yours are well.

[Maruco]

I'd imagine he'll use the Betfair as a fitness exercise for the County Hurdle Maurice. Have you covered with a nrnb bet in that race?

[Danny]

Think he's in the same boat as me done his spuds re the Betfair but NRNB on the Champion Hurdle both with different selections of course and both now waiting on Irish roe for a bit of a recovery.

[Desert Orchid]

I'd imagine he'll use the Betfair as a fitness exercise for the County Hurdle Maurice. Have you covered with a nrnb bet in that race?

I don't think anyone is going NRNB yet, Maruco. I'll check later today when I get a chance and if I can get it I will take it.

[bigeeps]

Cliffs of Dover isn't entered in the Betfair.

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...cap)-(grade-3)

[Danny]

Irish Roe makes the cut though so all being well we'll have a runner 11lb well in.

[Desert Orchid]

Cliffs of Dover isn't entered in the Betfair.

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...cap)-(grade-3)

Yup. Just in a moment ago. First thing I did was check. Aw well.

Still, the argument remains, he's the trainer's only entry in the Champion Hurdle so must be better than 145 by some way. I'll need to take out some sickness insurance on Divine Bere now! I suppose DB might be there to weigh up possible County Hurdle opps. (I got 20/1 nrnb for that.)

[Double Handful]

Irish Roe makes the cut though so all being well we'll have a runner 11lb well in.

Irish Roe still 12/1 right now. Has to go off a good bit shorter once the pull in the weights he's getting becomes known to the general punter.

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[Danny]

Yeah I'd have thought she has to go off favourite really not that it'll make much difference to her performance either way. I also have a funny feeling Jenkins will be pulled out at the 48 hours stage which will see most of them shorten up if that's the case.